Moneytalk with Bob Brinker Show Summary

Warning. Today's "Moneytalk with Bob Brinker" is a replay of one or many past shows. Note that they don't give a phone number to call into the program like they usually do when the show is live.

I have not heard any announcements that the show is repeat on KGO810 in San Francisco. This is unusual because KGO usually announces their locally produced shows are "best of" programs to their audience.

My Oct. 09 GNMA Sell Advice

Thanks to "Runner Twentysix" for posting this on the "Bob Brinker" discussion board on our "Investing for the Long Term group" at facebook.

Post #592 Runner Twentysix wrote: Yet another rerun program today, and the couple of calls I heard on the way to Target were not good ones either.

Here are some recent "Retirement Advisor" blog posts to consider before the tax year ends:

• Tax Tips: Year-End Donations
  
  
• Tax Tips: Charitable Contributions for IRA Owners
  
  
• Tax Tips: New Car Tax Break for 2009

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 159% (a double plus another 59%!!) vs. the S&P500 UP a tiny 8.6% vs. NASDAQ UP a tiny 3.5% (All through 12/31/09)

In 2009, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" gained 33.5% vs. the DJIA up 18.8%

(More Info & FREE Sample Issue)

HURRY! Subscribe NOW and get the This Month's Issue of "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Newsletter" for FREE!! (Just mention this advertisement and I'll start your paid subscription with the next calendar month's issue.

Bob Brinker Bullish for 2010 Says Mark Hulbert of Marketwatch

Today Mark Hulbert, editor of "Hulbert's Financial Digest," reports in the Marketwatch article "Upbeat for 2010" that Bob Brinker is bullish for 2010.

I normally don't put too much weight in the year-ahead forecasts that investment advisers circulate every December.

But I make an exception when it comes to the newsletters on the Hulbert Financial Digest's Newsletter Honor Roll for 2010. Making it onto that Honor Roll requires jumping over a number of demanding hurdles; merely beating the market won't do. Instead, to make it onto the Honor Roll, a newsletter had to have above-average performance both in up and down markets.

Bob Brinker's Marketimer. Brinker in his most recent issue wrote: "Based on our earnings estimate for next year and our fair value price/earnings ratio of 16 to 17 times operating earnings, we estimate upside potential for the S&P 500 index (Quote and chart) into next year in the 1170 to 1240 range." That upside potential represents a gain from current levels of between 6% and 13%; his model portfolios are fully invested.

I don't know what Mark Hulbert was smoking to award Brinker the "Honor Roll" after he missed the biggest bear market since the Great Depression and issued at "gift horse buying opportunity" near the very top in the mid 1400s.

In November 2007 I wrote this article: Bob Brinker Still Bullish According to Mark Hulbert that said:

In his article "The best vs. the worst: Best long-term market timers believe we're in a bull market," Mark writes of Bob Brinker:

Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early November, editor Bob Brinker writes: "We continued to believe that there is no risk of a cyclical bear market (a decline of 20% or more as measured by the S&P 500 index (S&P500 chart) in the months ahead ... We expect the stock market to set a series of new record highs into next year." His model portfolios are fully invested.

Mark covers nine of his top market timers and concludes Bob Brinker is not a "lone voice in the wilderness" with his bullishness.

I am not alone with my amazement as the comments on the article show. Here is a sampling:

slee915 10 hours ago

This article loses all credibility as soon as it mentions Bob Brinker's Market Timer is in the Honor Roll. C'mon Mark, Bob stayed FULLY INVESTED through the last bear market.

G-ron 1 hour ago

Not sure how Brinker is on the honor roll because he totally ignored the financial crisis. Barely mentioned it as well as ignoring it in his timing. Hulbert added nothing in this post but that said he still has something to say worth reading from time to time. In my mind it is more important who he has left out of his survey than who he has included.

My criticism is with the method and not with the conclusion which I think has a higher probability of being right than wrong.

MexicanBatman 44 minutes ago

I have to agree with slee and G-ron. Brinker was fully invested during the recent power dive. I can't imagine any newsletter subscriber believing they got their money's worth... [clip]

I think that Bob got on Mark's list because he did have a good call in 2000-2001 to get out of the market... but Mark doesn't consider Brinker's cocky "QQQQ counter trend rally" which he advised people to buy the Q's and never told people to dump them as we slid into the great dot-com abyss. There are scores of web pages complaining about call....

Bob didn't count that QQQQ "free advice to everuone, not just subsctibers" as part of his model portfolio,,, I supect this sleight of hand is why Brinker is on Mark's list...

honeybee2 16 minutes ago

Mark Hulbert never reported the following facts about Bob Brinker. Not only did Bob Brinker remain fully invested for the 2008-2009 megabear ride, but he advised all new money in at ever lower levels as the market fell:

January 4, 2008: Buy S&P 500 in the mid 1400s.
February 10, 2008: Buy S&P 500 in the low 1300s.
August 5, 2008: Buy S&P 500 at 1240 or less.
September 2, 2008: Buy S&P 500 in low-to-mid 1200s
September 16, 2008: Prior buy signal rescinded, dollar cost average recommended
January 15, 2009: Buy S&P 500 low-to-mid 800s
March 5, 2009: Waiting for retest of the lows -- missed the March 9th bottom.

In 2008, Bob Brinker's Model Portfolio I lost 39.7%; Model Portfolio II lost 37.4%; and Model Portfolio III (balanced) lost 23.9%.

More info:

• Bob Brinker Marketimer 2008 Performance Numbers
  
  
• Mark Hulbert Reviews '08 Forecasts - Bob Brinker Bullish
  
  
• => Bob Brinker's QQQ Advice
  
  
• => Effect of QQQ advice on reported results
  
  
• S&P 500 index (Quote and chart)

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 159% (a double plus another 59%!!) vs. the S&P500 UP a tiny 8.6% vs. NASDAQ UP a tiny 3.5% (All through 12/31/09)

In 2009, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" gained 33.5% vs. the DJIA up 18.8%

(More Info & FREE Sample Issue)

HURRY! Subscribe NOW and get the January 2010 Issue of "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Newsletter" for FREE! !

Kirk's Two Investment Letters

CD Rate Survey by Term

The top rate for a certificate of deposit (CD) this week is at Pentagon Federal Credit Union (fondly known as PenFed CU) where you can get a 7-year certificate that currently pays 4.00% APY.

For shorter terms, ING Direct has a 1-year CD with a 2.00% annual percentage rate. I bought one yesterday.

The one year US Treasury rate is currently 0.35%.

With rates so low, banks will try to sell you their annuity products. Make sure you read our article: Beware of Annuities

The table below shows the best CD rates for other terms. If that table is hard to read, then try Very Best CD Rates.

CD Rates Survey as of 12/15/09

Term	Date	Highest Rate (APY)	Where? (Click link for Full Rate Sheets)
Vanguard Daily	12/15/09	0.08%	Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund
Vanguard Tax Exempt	12/15/09	0.13%	Vanguard Tax Exempt Money Market Fund
FDIC Daily Savings	12/15/09	1.70%	Colorado Federal Savings Bank => Full Rate Survey
High Yield MM	12/15/09	1.60%	Bank of Internet USA
6 Month CD	12/15/09	1.55%	UFB Direct
1 Year CD	12/15/09	2.00%	ING Direct
18 Month CD	12/15/09	2.05%	Colorado Federal Savings Bank
2 Year CD	12/15/09	2.25%	Discover Bank
3 Year CD	12/15/09	2.99%	Goldwater Bank
4 Year CD	12/15/09	3.00%	Capital One Direct Bank
5 Year CD	12/15/09	3.35%	Goldwater Bank
7 Year CD	12/15/09	4.00%	Pentagon Federal CU
10 Year CD	12/15/09	3.70%	Discover Bank

Vanguard Money Market Rates shown for Reference

• Easy to Read Best CD Rate Survey
  

==> Current US Treasury Rates as of 12/15/09 <==

TERM	MATURITY DATE	YIELD %
3-Month	03/18/2010	0.04
6-Month	06/17/2010	0.16
12-Month	11/18/2010	0.35
2-Year	11/30/2011	0.85
3-Year	12/15/2012	1.37
5-Year	11/30/2014	2.33
7-Year	11/30/2016	3.07
10-Year	11/15/2019	3.59
30-Year	11/15/2039	4.52

• US Treasury Rates at a Glance
  
  
• World Stock Markets at a Glance

With rates so low, banks will try to sell you their annuity products. Make sure you read our article: Beware of Annuities.

National Debt Passes 12.1 Trillion Dollars!

Bob Brinker constantly bashes congress and "the White House" for massive deficit spending. He says they are spending like "drunken sailors." Other than I think this is a slam on many of our sober men and women in service of our country, this is one area I am in complete agreement with him.

Check out The National Debt Clock for a sobering set of statistics.

As I type, the total nation debt is over 12 TRILLION 1o4 Million!

$12,104,298,636,666

It advanced over 30 MILLION as I wrote that down.

National

• Debt per citizen = $39,283
  
• Debt per taxpayer = $111,224
  
  
• Interest per citizen = $5,859

US Population = 308,129,449
Number of US Taxpayers = 108,834,743
Number of Officially Unemployed = 15,403,989

Number of US Workforce 138,584,486
Number of Federal Employees = 4,238,946
Number of US retirees = 37,500,533

Notes of interest:

Not all workers pay taxes since they fall below the threshold.

If you define "supporting" as you give more to government than we get from the government, then this calculation is staggering:

Us 108.8 million taxpayers are supporting 57.1 million people!

• 4.2M federal workers
• 15.4 M unemployed and
  
• 37.5M retired people!

The price of Gold at $1,113 (Gold quote and Charts) is probably reflecting the market's belief in how difficult it will be for US taxpayers to repay this debt without massive inflation.

Disclosure: I have no position in Gold but I do have significant personal positions in TIPS, TIPS mutual funds and iBonds plus I hold them in BOTH my newsletter portfolios. See: Kirk's Two Investment Letters

Brinker Fixed Income Advisor Returns

The Bob Brinkers are advertising very impressive returns for the "Brinker Fixed Income Advisor" on their web site. (Click the image to see advertised returns.)

What they don't tell you is how poorly they did last year and how they have greatly under performed my advice until very recently to hold Vanguard's Total Bond fund (VBMFX) for your fixed income. (I recently sold ALL my bonds and bond funds that are not indexed to inflation and put the funds into investments that should do well in an environment of rising interest rates. Subscribe NOW to get my current advice for your "Core and explore" portfolio.)

This table showing the COMBINED returns for the past three years less a month tells "the rest of the story" as the late Paul Harvey used to say.

Brinker Fixed Income Advisor	2009 YTD (through Dec 1)	2008	2007	2007 to 2009 Combined
Model Portfolio 1	30.90%	(21.70%)	8.60%	11.3%
Model Portfolio 2	19.60%	(11.50%)	6.80%	13.0%
Model Portfolio 3	14.10%	(5.20%)	7.20%	16.0%
Vanguard Total Bond VBMFX	7.74%	5.05%	6.92%	21.0%
Vanguard GNMA Fund VFIIX	6.88%	7.22%	7.01%	22.6%
Retirement Advisor Model Portfolio #3	7.21%	3.73%	8.32%	20.5%

I also show the returns for our 100% fixed income portfolio in "The Retirement Advisor." We have slightly under performed the total bond fund. Our returns are lower by half a percent because we have inflation protection via a TIPS fund that hurt our 2008 returns AND we recently moved to safer CDs for our long-term fixed income allocation to reduce the risk of net asset value declines should the Fed decide it needs to suddenly raise interest rates.

I can't find Brinker's returns by year listed anywhere on his web sites for ANY of his newsletters!!! What is up with that? Vanguard and I do it. What is he hiding? Call his show and ask why.

I show all my returns for "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter" by year here.

We show our return data for "The Retirement Advisor" here.

The table showing Brinker's poor performance for the "Brinker Fixed Income Advisor" newsletter portfolios relative to a simple total bond index may explain why he hides that information.

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 158% (a double plus another 58% !) vs. the S&P500 UP at tiny 7.5% vs. NASDAQ UP at tiny 0.1% (All through 12/5/09) (More Info)

As of December 5, 2009, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is up 33.0% YTD vs. DJIA up 19.1% YTD

Subscribe NOW and get the December 2009 Issue for FREE! !
(Your 1 year, 12 issue subscription will start with next month's issue.)

More Info:

• Kirk's Two Investment Letters

Moneytalk With Bob Brinker Guests: Dec 2009: List of their Books

Bob Brinker, host of Moneytalk, usually interviews a guest in the final hour of his three hour weekend radio show. These guests usually have a new book to promote. Bob has become good at interviewing his guests to let them express their opinions. This has become the favorite segment of the show for many of us. Below is a list of the guests for this month with links to buy their books to support this site.

Saturday December 5, 2009: Joshua Kosman, "The Buyout of America: How Private Equity Will Cause the Next Great Credit Crisis"

Last Month: Moneytalk With Bob Brinker Guests - November 2009

Favorite guests from past months:

Saturday November 21, 2009: Barbara Weltman, contributing editor to "J.K. Lasser's Your Income Tax 2010: For Preparing Your 2009 Tax Return"

America's number one bestselling tax guide offers the best balance of thoroughness, organization, and usability. For over half a century, more than 39 million Americans have turned to J.K. Lasser for easy-to-follow, expert advice and guidance on planning and filing their taxes. Written by a team of tax specialists, J.K. Lasser's Your Income Tax 2010 includes all the outstanding features that have made this book the nation's all-time top-selling tax guide.

• Over 2,500 easy-to-use tax planning tips and strategies
• Easy-to-understand coverage of the year's tax law changes
• Filing tips and instructions to help you prepare your 2009 return
• Quick reference section that highlights what's new for 2009
• Quick topic index to help pinpoint the biggest money-saving deductions
• Advice for customers whose use software or CPAs to file their taxes

TurboTax 2009 - List of Products on Sale
FREE Super Saver Shipping
No Sales Tax

Most popular:
TurboTax Deluxe Federal + State 2009 + efile


Saturday November 14, 2009: Jim Lebenthal: Lebenthal On Munis: Straight Talk About Tax-Free Municipal Bonds for the Troubled Investor Deciding

Saturday October 31, 2009: David L. Scott: "The American Heritage Dictionary of Business Terms"

Sunday October 25, 2009: Dale Robyn Siegel: "The New Rules for Mortgages"

Bob said the switchboard lit up like a Christmas tree with a record number of callers wanting to ask Ms. Siegel questions.

Saturday October 3, 2009: Gretchen Morgenson, author of the book "The Capitalist's Bible: The Essential Guide to Free Markets--and Why They Matter to You"

Guest Host Lynn Jimenez: Lynn Jimenez Fan Club :

Lynn's Book:
¿Se Habla Dinero? The Everyday Guide to Financial Success (English and Spanish Edition)
A bilingual guide to the basics of financial success. ¿Se Habla Dinero? walks readers through the fundamentals of personal finance and money management and explains how to open and use bank accounts; establish and manage credit; save and borrow money for education; and master basic investing techniques. This bilingual guide makes intimidating topics easy and gives readers the confidence they need to move forward.

Buy from Amazon.com here



Disclaimer. I get a commission for books purchased with these links. Please show support and use the links.