Bob Brinker's 2009 Market Outlook

Bob Brinker was back to his old self this weekend. On "Moneytalk hosted by Bob Brinker, " he patted himself on the back for "going out on a limb" back in January when he predicted the market would be higher in 2009. Brinker said cash was the worst place to be this year and "I guess the only place worse than cash has been to be short the market."

Honeybee covers it very well in more detail here with the following:

"....And obviously, the worst place to be is to have any stock market money in cash in here, with returns close to zero, plus missing out on the gains this year. I guess the only place worse than cash has been to be short the market.....Some people are short the market because it's summer....And there's no question that when that positive stock market forecast was made in January.....it was a forecast that was a voice in the wilderness. There's no doubt about that, with all the negativity that was out there back in January. But I've often said, so frequently, the best place to be is to be a voice in the wilderness because that's the way the stock market works very frequently....it is a forward looking mechanism.....it does not have a rear-view mirror. And so the key to success in 2009 has been to be looking forward, to be discounting future developments. And the key has been to do so with a fully invested stock market portfolio."

Setting the Record Straight

Brinker didn't tell you that he called a bottom in the 800s when he made that prediction in a special bulletin to his subscribers, the limb broke and the market dropped over 25% to 666 before rallying to where it is now, in the high 900s. He also didn't tell you that when the market was in the 600s he removed the buy signal and told his subscribers he was

He also didn't tell you he went out and broke many limbs in 2008 as the market crashed from record highs in the 1500s.

With the S&P500 at 1468.36 in January 2008, Brinker wrote on page 3 of his Marketimer newsletter:

"In summary, the Marketimer stock market timing model indicates that conditions are favorable for the market as we enter 2008. We expect the S&P Index to achieve new record highs this year and to reach the 1600's range in the process. We continue to rate the market attractive for purchase on any weakness into the S&P 500 Index mid-1400's range. Above this range we prefer a dollar-cost-average approach for new purchases. All Marketimer model portfolios remain fully invested as we enter 2008. "

All these "buying opportunities" are moot since Bob Brinker's newsletter portfolios have been 100% invested in the market since March 2003.

Brinker also didn't tell his listening audience that he might have been raging bullish in January 2008 and January 2009, but he had no advice to buy the market when it was a mere 20 points above its cyclical bear market low of 676 (on a closing basis.)

In Bob Brinker's March 5, 2009 Marketimer Newsletter with S&P500 at 696.33 Brinker wrote:

“The process of establishing a major bear market bottom can extend over a period of several months, as we saw in 2002-2003. Clearly, the process of registering the final bottom in this bear market has been relentless, which has rendered our efforts to date unsuccessful.

and

“Due to the fact that the November 20, 2008 S&P 500 Index closing low failed to hold during the testing process, we believe a new bottoming process will be necessary in order to put an end to the bear market. This means that in order to set the stage for a sustainable market advance, we need to see a sequence of events consisting of:

(a) the establishment of an initial closing low; (b) a short-term rally; (c) a test of the area of the initial closing low on reduced selling pressure.”

Brinker did not issue a buy at 696 nor did he mention “dollar cost average” anywhere in that March newsletter.

In the past four and a half months, the market has gone nearly straight up 300 points without a correction to test the initial closing low.

With the market back in the 900s, Brinker's July 3, 2009 Marketimer Newsletter recommends “using periods of short-term weakness as buying opportunities,” but he doesn’t define what weakness is!

Here is a chart showing the above in graphic detail

click chart courtesy of stockcharts.com for full sized image

Moral to the Story: Brinker makes a great deal of money selling a newsletter called "Marketimer" he promotes on his weekly radio show. A few months ago when the markets were near the lows a caller thanked him for "getting me out of the market" and Brinker didn't correct the caller or tell his audience he had been recommending a fully invested position since March 2003.

Sadly for all of us who would like to believe in magic and fairy tales such as a pot of gold with a magic market timing model, Brinker's own actions the past two years prove he is not very good at it.

Bob Brinker Moneytalk Summary - Interpretation of what Brinker Said on July 25 & 26, 2009

This weekend Bob Brinker says "clearly we are in a cyclical bull market. " Here is David Korns "interpretation" of the July 25 and 26, 2009 Moneytalk (Bob Brinker Host) shows. You can read more about David Korn at the end of this article.

STOCK MARKET FORECAST

Brinker Comment: Bob observed how well the stock market is doing and told listeners that in January he had forecast that the market would make significant gains in 2009. Bob said a lot of people were talking about Armageddon at the time, predicting a collapse in the financial system. Bob pointed out that being in cash this year was the worst place to have any stock market money with returns close to zero and missing out on the opportunity costs in the gains this year. The only worse place to be would have been if you were short the market. Bob said his forecast in January was a “voice in the wilderness” and that so often the best place to be is a voice in the wilderness because that is the way the stock market works quite frequently. It is a forward looking mechanism, not a rear-view mirror reactor. The key to success in 2009 has been to look forward, to be discounting future developments and the way to do that has been with a fully invested stock market portfolio.

David Korn: Ahem. Let me first congratulate Bob for making a prediction in January of this year that the stock market would produce significant gains. Well done buddy. Now let me remind Bob that immediately following his forecast, the stock market declined around 25%, blowing past Bob’s revised lower buy points. Then along came March, when he finally capitulated on no longer issuing “buy recommendations” and then the market began its bull market run on March 9, 2009. Bob’s “voice in the wilderness” remarks run completely shallow in my opinion, because he was belittling the bears throughout the first quarter of 2008 as the market began the ravages of worst bear market in 70 years. His forecast for significant gains in 2009, was simply one of many bullish calls Bob has made over the last 2 years. He missed the bottom on March 9th completely (see my March 9, 2009 special alert which discussed the positive divergences). Think I am too hard on daBrink? If he wasn’t such a spinner, I wouldn’t have to set him straight.

Make sure you read: Best Investment Newsletter

CYCLICAL BULL MARKET

Caller: A caller noted that trading volume had been low and wondered how we could be in a bull market without higher volume. Bob said a lot of traders are scratching their heads wondering how this can be. But clearly we are in a cyclical bull market. Bob noted that in the summer, volume tends to wane because many people are on vacation and so there isn’t as much active trading. The other thing impacting volume is that there are a lot of people who became disenchanted with the market and are no longer participating in stocks.

David Korn: I have maintained that a bull market began on March 9th. I thought Bob had been setting the stage for calling this a cyclical bull market, but I think he was waiting to make sure that it was going to be clear that we wouldn’t have a retest of those lows. With the market now up around 35%, he can comfortably make that statement. The important question now becomes when will this bull market end. They all do. And when they end, that means it is because a bear market has begun.

EARNINGS

Brinker Comment: There has been a melt-up in stock market prices over the last couple of weeks with very little going on other than buying. The market has produced about 11-12% gains over the last 10 trading sessions. People are obviously anticipating a better economy down the road but this has also been accompanied by way better-than-expected corporate earnings. The Wall Street forecasters were way low on their corporate earnings outlook, with earnings coming in better than a 2-to-1 margin during this reporting period.

David Korn: Good chart focusing on 12-month as reported S&P 500 earnings here:

• S&P500 Inflation Adjusted Earnings

MARKET REWARDING INVESTORS

Brinker Comment: For investors who are in the stock market (up to their own personal risk tolerance), the market is rewarding their ownership of stocks. We are just past the halfway mark of this year, and we have already seen a total return of over 11.5%. When you consider that people earning cash in money markets that yield less than 1%, the returns are extraordinary.

David Korn: Indeed. The low rates on money market funds (and other cash equivalents) is also helping the stock market as investors look to eek out gains, whether by stock market appreciation or good old fashioned dividends. You remember those right? I just looked up the dividend yield on the S&P 500, and even that is yielding 2.62% for the 12-month period ending June. When you consider that even the Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund is yielding less than a quarter of 1%, that’s pretty significant.

SUCKER’S RALLY?

Caller: A caller said he heard someone on TV call the recent market action a “sucker’s rally.” The caller said he had lost so much money in the stock market like everyone else, and asked Bob his opinion. Bob said if you are going to call double-digit returns year-to-date as a sucker’s rally, then who are the suckers? Are they the people in the market making these returns? The caller said if it takes another big drop the people who are in the market, they will be the suckers if the market goes back down and said he hoped Bob would be able to get him out if that happens. Bob said he went out on a limb in January to make the prediction that the stock market would have a significant up year. Bob noted that back in January, he said the market was very attractive for purchase when the S&P 500 was in the low-to-mid 800s and look where it is now, up around 980. For people who are in cash, the market will have to take a big decline just to get back in at much lower levels.

David Korn: Bob didn’t address the caller’s question about whether he would be able to “get him out” before the bull ended. When you think about it, Bob has only issued one “sell” signal in over 20 years. Much harder than a buy signal to do.

David Korn#2: Bob’s buy signal of low-to-mid 800s is working out now. The buy signals from 1400 down to the low-to-mid 800s haven’t worked out so well.

David Korn #3: Bob took a bunch of jabs at advisors who were recommending cash. He might have been referring to the advisors who avoid the stock market during the May-November timeframe under the “Best Six Month’s” or “Seasons in the Sun” strategy. They did great in 2008 by being out of the market during that time frame. It remains to be seen whether that strategy works out this year. I’ll let you know around November 1st.

INFLATION

Brinker Comment: The implied inflation rate in the Treasury market suggests that investors are saying there is a 1.9% implied rate of inflation. Right now, the Consumer Price Index is showing deflation on a year-over-year basis of 1.4%. With the implied rate of inflation in the Treasury market at 1.9%, that means you would need to see inflation increase by 3.3% for the implied rate to be realized.

David Korn: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser gave an interview this week saying the Fed would probably begin raising rates sometime in the not-too-distant future. Plosser is a well known inflation hawk at the Federal Reserve. Read more about his comments at this url:

http://tinyurl.com/mhd8bu

GNMA

Caller: This caller wanted to know why Bob recommended GNMAs so much. Bob said GNMAs are backed by the United States Treasury. They do not have credit risk, only interest rate risk. Bob said he estimated that the net asset value risk in the Vanguard GNMA fund that he recommends means that the fund could trade between the mid-$9s to the mid-$10s. The yield on the Vanguard GNMA fund right now is about 4%.

David Korn: Can’t argue with success. The net asset value of the Vanguard GNMA Fund that Bob recommends (ticker: VFIIX) closed today at $10.63 — very near the high.

HEALTHCARE REFORM

Brinker Comment: Bob said he thinks something might get done in Washington before the end of the year on healthcare legislation. What will be the impact? Bob said it will be dramatic on a lot of people, but small businesses are going to be caught right in the middle because if you are an employer today who does not offer health care coverage, you are going to have to pay a payroll tax of up to 8% a year. That will be a penalty for not providing coverage. Moreover, even if you do provide coverage, and the government determines it to be inadequate (in their opinion), then you are also going to be penalized. The reality is that the vast majority of jobs in our country are created by small business so the impact of this legislation is a big deal. If a small business is going to be subject to a new 8% payroll tax because they aren’t offering insurance, they might have to cut payroll.

The legislation, as it is developing, is going to require 20-somethings to purchase health insurance policies that will not reflect the risk of illness that they statistically have which is very low when you are that age. The 30-somethings will probably grossly over pay as well so that the premiums that seniors pay is lower.

One of the ways Congress wants to pay for this is a 5.4% surtax on high earners. Bob said he thinks Nancy Pelosi really likes this tax and thinks it is the greatest thing out there. Bob noted that in California, the top state income tax bracket is close to 10.5%. If you add the proposed surtax, and consider uncapped Medicare (2.9%), and then you figure the top federal tax bracket is most likely going to 39.6% in January 2011, the tax burden for high earners will be in the upper 50 percentile! That means that an entrepreneur might take home only a little more than 40 cents on the dollar. Bob said Washington doesn’t seem to get it and if health care reform is so valuable, why would you only ask people making over a million a year to pay for it.

The health care plan is going to be extremely expensive, with estimates anywhere from $1 trillion to $1.6 trillion for a decade. This will be the biggest social reform since the Medicare act of 1965. Other than nailing the top brackets. Congress seems to have no other ideas on how to pay for it. Bob conceded that nobody feels sorry for people who make over a million a year, but there’s a very limited number of people making that money, maybe six tenths of 1% of taxpayers which means that on a thousand tax returns, you might have 6 returns that would be in that category. Its hard to imagine raising that much revenue from so few people.

David Korn: One of my subscribers looked up this information on the 1040 Quickfinder tax guide for tax year 2008 and found the following information:

IRS Statistics for 2006 returns:

Total number of returns with income of $1,000,000 or more: 339,138
Total number of returns with positive AGI: 135,719,160

The site says 2.5% of taxpayers in 2006 that had an AGI over $1 million or 2-3 returns out of 1,000.

TAX INCREASES

Caller: What impact will all the tax increases coming up have on the stock market? Bob said the tax increases will probably go into effect in 2011. So far, it seems that tax increases will mostly impact people making more than $250,000 a year which is a tiny group of people relative to all tax payers. As a consequence, Bob said he does not see a direct correlation between higher taxes on higher wage earners and the stock market.

David Korn: I agree, although the indirect impact could be significant. Higher taxes, means less discretionary income. Which means less spending. Which is usually not a good thing for an economy that relies on consumer spending so much.

Brinker Comment: Keep an eye on states that don’t have a government printing press. There are states that will be under pressure to raise taxes to get revenue. This can be substantial.

MUTUAL FUND DINOSAURS

Caller: This caller has a lot of his 401(k) invested in mutual funds. He heard a show where an advisor saying that mutual funds are for dinosaurs and that exchange traded funds are the way to go. Bob said anybody who calls mutual funds dinosaurs because of ETFs would be irresponsible. For starters, ETFs are a type of mutual fund. You can buy the Total Stock Market Index with an outfit like Vanguard for very low expenses. It has dividend reinvestment options, statements that are mailed you and the diversity of the whole market in a one fund. You can buy an exchange traded fund that is essentially the same thing, it just trades in real time. Anyone who makes this kind of statement is probably trying to make money off of that and it is absurd.

David Korn: According to a survey in April, advisors expect clients to allocate 14% of their portfolios to ETFs, up from 8% now and 5% in 2007. Read the article entitled, “Advisors Predict More ETF Buying” at this url:

http://tinyurl.com/kv64j9

MONEYTALK GUESTS

On Saturday, Bob had on Lawrence McDonald, author of the book, “A Colossal Failure of Common Sense: The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers”

On Sunday, Bob had on Charles Geisst, author of the book, “Collateral Damaged: The Marketing of Consumer Debt to America.”

David Korn Links:

• Download a Copy of The Retirement Advisor
  
  
• The Retirement Advisor web site, Free Sample and blog.
  
  
• Email Request for Free Sample of "David Korn's Stock Market Commentary, Interpretation of Moneytalk (Bob Brinker Host), Financial Education, Helpful Links, Guest Editorials, and Special Alert E-Mail Service"

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WABC Radio NY Drops Moneytalk Hosted by Bob Brinker

How to Listen to "Moneytalk hosted by Bob Brinker" with a PC

We are getting many questions from people in New York who used to listen to "Moneytalk hosted by Bob Brinker" on WABC radio. WABC used to carry Moneytalk live between 4PM and 7PM EST but the show has been replaced (see new schedule below.)

How do you find the show on the internet?

Check the comments section of this article and maybe people will post stations they listen to. The trouble is many stations preempt the Moneytalk for sports so you often have to search around and miss the opening monologue before you find a station with the show.

What I have been doing is recording the show automatically with "Replay A/V - Replay Radio." That software automatically finds an internet station that carries the show then records it automatically to my hard drive. I then have it automatically convert the data to MP3 so I can put it on my iPod if I want to listen away from my PC while on a bike ride or working out at my gym.

You can demo the software for free and contact customer service if you have troubles.

Read more about it here:

How To Record Bob Brinker's Moneytalk
Record Moneytalk on Demand!
Don't miss shows or pay monthly fees.
It's Like a TiVo™ for Internet Radio!!!

This is the new WABC schedule:

Saturday

Start	Finish	Show Name
12:00AM	1:00AM	Curtis Sliwa
1:00AM	6:00AM	Paid Programming
6:00AM	7:00AM	Garden Sense
7:00AM	10:00AM	Mark Simone
10:00AM	1:00PM	Larry Kudlow
1:00PM	4:00PM	Monica Crowley
4:00PM	6:00PM	Real Estate Today
6:00PM	9:00PM	Saturday Night with Mark Simone
9:00PM	12:00AM	John Batchelor

Sunday

Start	Finish	Show Name
12:00AM	1:00AM	John Batchelor
1:00AM	2:00AM	Paid Programming
2:00AM	5:00AM	Coast to Coast
5:00AM	7:30AM	Paid Programming
7:30AM	10:00AM	Religion on the Line
10:00AM	12:00PM	Ric Edelman
12:00PM	2:00PM	The Money Pit
2:00PM	4:00PM	Travel Show Live with Erik Hastings
4:00PM	6:00PM	77 WABC Local Talk
6:00PM	7:00PM	Paid Programming
7:00PM	9:00PM	77 WABC Local Talk
9:00PM	12:00AM	John Batchelor

SU Suncor Energy Q2 2009 Earnings Results

BEWARE: Bob Brinker recommended Suncore Energy (SU Charts ) in past issues of his Marketimer newsletter but he did not add SU to any of his model portfolios. If the past is any indicator of what happens going forward, Brinker will take calls on the show thanking him if SU soars like Microsoft (MSFT charts) did after he recommended it in the 1990s. If SU goes down, he may simply remove it from his recommended list , say "hold for future recovery" and stop talking about it like he did with the "First Hand eCommerce Fund TEFQX" (TEFQX Update) after he recommended TEFQX with a full page of his newsletter in February 2000, just before the internet bubble burst.

Suncor Energy releases second quarter 2009 results

Summary:

• Loss of $0.06 per common share vs earning $0.89 in Q2-2008
• Cash decreased $342 million vs generating $1.405 billion in Q2-2008

Calgary, Alberta (July 22, 2009) – Suncor Energy Inc. today reported a second quarter 2009 net loss of $51 million ($0.06 per common share), compared to net earnings of $829 million ($0.89 per common share) in the second quarter of 2008. Excluding unrealized foreign exchange gain on the company's U.S. dollar denominated long-term debt, mark-to-market accounting losses on commodity derivatives, and costs related to start-up or deferral of growth projects, second quarter 2009 earnings were $185 million ($0.20 per common share), compared to $920 million ($0.99 per common share) in the second quarter of 2008. Cash flow used in operations was $342 million in the second quarter of 2009, compared to cash flow from operations of $1.405 billion in the second quarter of 2008.
The decrease in earnings and cash flow was primarily due to lower price realizations, as benchmark commodity prices were significantly weaker in the second quarter of 2009 compared to the same period in 2008, and operating expenses were higher at oil sands due to increased production and sales. These were partially offset by the increased production in our oil sands business segment, reduced natural gas royalty expense due to lower benchmark commodity prices, and increased refined product sales in our downstream business segment.
Net loss for the first six months of 2009 was $240 million, compared to net earnings of $1.537 billion for the same period in 2008. Excluding unrealized foreign exchange impacts on the company's U.S. dollar denominated long-term debt, mark-to-market accounting losses on commodity derivatives, and costs related to start-up or deferral of growth projects, earnings for the first six months of 2009 were $410 million, compared to $1.725 billion in the same period for 2008. Cash flow from operations for the first six months of 2009 was $137 million, compared to $2.566 billion in the first six months of 2008. The year-to-date decreases in earnings and cash flow from operations were primarily due to the same factors that impacted second quarter results.
Suncor's total upstream production averaged 336,100 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day during the second quarter of 2009, compared to 212,300 boe per day in the second quarter of 2008. Oil sands production contributed an average 301,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter of 2009, compared to second quarter 2008 production of 174,600 bpd. The increased production was primarily due to improved upgrader reliability in the second quarter of 2009. In addition, in the comparative quarter of 2008 a planned maintenance shutdown of one of our upgraders and a regulatory cap on our Firebag in-situ operations impacted production. Natural gas production this most recent quarter averaged 211 million cubic feet equivalent (mmcfe) per day, compared to 226 mmcfe per day in the second quarter of 2008.
Oil sands cash operating costs averaged $31.30 per barrel in the second quarter of 2009, compared to $50.85 per barrel during the second quarter of 2008. The decrease in cash operating costs per barrel was primarily due to increased production and a decrease in natural gas input prices.
“During the second quarter, we saw the fruits of last year's labour,” said Rick George, president and chief executive officer. “For the second quarter in a row, we experienced very good reliability at oil sands, which is clearly illustrated through our production results during the first half of 2009. As we look to the second half of the year, we are confident that we are well-positioned to take advantage of any improvement in commodity prices with more reliable operations.”

Merger and growth update

On March 23, 2009, Suncor and Petro‑Canada (TSX:PCA) (NYSE:PCZ) announced that they have agreed to merge the two companies. The merger has received shareholder, court and Competition Bureau approval and with all the conditions necessary to complete the transaction satisfied, Suncor and Petro‑Canada intend to make the merger effective August 1, 2009. The combined entity will operate corporately and trade under the Suncor name while maintaining the strong brand presence and customer loyalty of Petro‑Canada in refined products.
During the second quarter of 2009, work continued on the Firebag sulphur plant and the Steepbank extraction plant. The sulphur plant is expected to support sulphur emissions reductions for existing and planned in-situ development, and the extraction plant is expected to provide improved reliability and productivity for the company's oil sands assets. The project cost for the Steepbank extraction plant is expected to exceed the previous cost estimate ($850 million +/−10%) with a final estimated cost of $980 million (+5%) as a result of labour shortages and the resulting productivity challenges, as well as premiums incurred to maintain the project schedule. Both of these projects are scheduled for completion in the third quarter of 2009. For an update on our significant capital projects currently in progress see page 11 of Suncor's second quarter report to shareholders.
As previously announced, we deferred the company's growth projects in our revised 2009 capital budget. We do not anticipate any changes to our growth project plans until after the close of the proposed merger with Petro‑Canada. At that time, all capital projects from both predecessor companies will be reviewed with capital investment directed toward projects with the strongest near-term cash flow potential, highest anticipated return on capital and lowest risk.OutlookSuncor's outlook provides management's targets for 2009 in certain key areas of the company's business. Outlook forecasts are subject to change.

Outlook for 2009
Oil Sands	Six Month Actuals Ended June 30, 2009	2009 Full Year Outlook
Production (bpd)1	289,000	300,000 (+5%/-10%)
diesel	9%	10%
sweet	39%	38%
sour	48%	49%
bitumen	4%	3%
Realization on crude sales basket, per barrel2	WTI @ Cushing less Cdn$4.99	WTI @ Cushing less Cdn$4.50 to $5.50
Cash operating costs, per barrel3	$32.50	$33.00 to $38.00
Natural Gas
Production (mmcfe/d)4	215	210 (+5%/-5%)
natural gas	91%	92%
liquids	9%	8%
(1) Includes 22,000 bpd in the first six months of 2009 processed by Suncor for Petro-Canada for which Suncor receives a processing fee. Volumes received under this arrangement are not included as purchases for financial statement presentation. (2) Excludes the impact of hedging activities. (3) Cash operating cost estimates are based on the following assumptions: (i) production volumes and sales mix as described in the table above; and (ii) a natural gas price of $4.50 per gigajoule ($4.75 per mcf) at AECO. This goal also includes costs incurred for third-party bitumen processing but does not include costs related to deferral of growth projects. Based on second quarter results and expectations for the balance of the year, the natural gas price assumption has been reduced from the previous $7.10 per gigajoule at AECO. This change in assumption had no material impact on our cash operating costs per barrel outlook for 2009. Cash operating costs per barrel is not prescribed by Canadian generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). This non-GAAP financial measure does not have any standardized meaning and therefore is unlikely to be comparable to similar measures presented by other companies. Suncor includes this non-GAAP financial measure because investors may use this information to analyze operating performance. This information should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures of performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. See Non-GAAP Financial Measures on page 15 of Suncor's second quarter report to shareholders. (4) Production target includes natural gas liquids (NGL) and crude oil converted into mmcf equivalent at a ratio of one barrel of NGL/crude oil: six thousand cubic feet of natural gas. This conversion ratio is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. This mmcf equivalent may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation.

All financial figures are unaudited and in Canadian dollars unless noted otherwise. Certain financial measures referred to in this document are not prescribed by Canadian generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). For a description of these measures, see Non-GAAP Financial Measures in Suncor's 2009 second quarter Management's Discussion and Analysis. This document makes reference to barrels of oil equivalent (boe). A boe conversion ratio of six thousand cubicfeet of natural gas: one barrel of crude oil is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Accordingly, boe measures may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation.

More disclaimers at original press release
Investor inquiries: John Rogers (403) 269-8670

Media inquiries: Shawn Davis (403) 920-8379

A full copy of Suncor's second quarter report to shareholders and the financial statements and notes (unaudited) can be obtained at www.suncor.com/financialreporting or by calling 1-800-558-9071 toll-free in North America.

To listen to the conference call discussing Suncor's second quarter results, visit www.suncor.com/webcasts.

More SU Charts

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Top Rated Market Timer Dan Sullivan is Bullish, Again.

Bob Brinker is not the only market timer Mark Hulbert follows who is bullish.

This news was first posted on our Facebook "Investing for the Long Term" discussion forum.

Top Rated Market Timer Dan Sullivan has reversed a sell signal from earlier this month

ANNANDALE, Va. (By Mark Hulbert at MarketWatch) -- How long should you stick to your guns in the face of a market that refuses to cooperate?

If you're Dan Sullivan, the answer is: Not very long at all.

Sullivan, of course, is the editor of The Chartist, a newsletter that has one of the best long-term stock market timing records of any investment newsletter tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest.

And last night Sullivan issued a buy signal, reversing a sell signal that he issued earlier this month. Read July 10 column about Sullivan's sell signal.

That means that Sullivan's latest sell signal was ill-timed indeed, since the stock market took off almost immediately after he went completely to cash.

Sullivan's long-term record suggests, at a minimum, that we give him the benefit of the doubt.

And at least we now know that Sullivan is not suffering from the investment paralysis that Jeremy Grantham, the highly regarded chief investment strategist at GMO, warned investors about earlier this year.

The telltale signs of this rigor mortis, as Grantham refers to the condition, are when those who are on the wrong side of the market become "catatonic and just sit and pray" and, simultaneously, those who are on the right side of the market and who therefore are looking like geniuses "will not want to easily give up their brilliance."

Kirk Comment: Was he thinking of how Bob Brinker was wildly bullish with a "gift horse buy" in the mid 1400s in 2008 then stuck to 100% in equities all the way from the 1500s to the bottom at 666?

Whatever else you might say about Sullivan's latest buy signal, he definitely does not have rigor mortis.

Perhaps this ability to admit he was wrong and change his outlook is why Sullivan is the top rated market timer Mark Hulbert follows.

Request Invitation to facebook discussion group "Investing for the Long Term" to participate in our "Bob Brinker Discussion Forum."

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COFI Shows Bank Savings Rates Getting Better

Have you noticed that if you do your research, you can get better CD rates now than a few weeks ago?

• Article: How to Get the Best CD Rates

On June 30, 2009 the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco announced its 11th District Cost of Funds Index surged 33% in May to 1.832% from its record April 2009 low of 1.38%.

According to the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco:

The 11th District Monthly Weighted Average Cost of Funds Index (COFI: 11th Districty Cost of Funds Index History ) is one of many indices used by mortgage lenders to adjust the interest rate on adjustable rate mortgages. The COFI is computed from the actual interest expenses reported for a given month by the Arizona, California, and Nevada savings institution members of the Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco that satisfy the Bank's criteria for inclusion in the COFI.

Index Month	Index Value
May 2009	1.832
April 2009	1.380
March 2009	1.627
February 2009	2.003
January 2009	2.455
December 2008	2.757
November 2008	3.155
October 2008	3.125
September 2008	2.769
August 2008	2.693
July 2008	2.698
June 2008	2.829
May 2008	2.918
More Data	Here

The Federal Home Loan Bank of San Francisco first published the 11th District Monthly Weighted Average Cost of Funds Index on August 28, 1981, for the month of July 1981.

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Bob Brinker Nominated to 2009 National Radio Hall of Fame

Bob Brinker was nominated today to the "The National Radio Hall of Fame" along with 15 other nominees.

Congratulations Bob Brinker!

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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
June 25, 2009

The National Radio Hall of Fame today announced its 2009 roster of 16 nominees and launched its public online voting process at www.radiohof.org

Click here to go to the website where you can cast your vote for the Radio Hall of Fame inductees!

"The nomination of worthy radio professionals and programs from across America who represent various formats combined with public input into the selection process will result in a wide consensus on eventual inductees," said Bruce DuMont, Chairman of the National Radio Hall of Fame Steering Committee in announcing the nominations.

The 2009 National Radio Hall of Fame categories and nominees are:

LOCAL OR REGIONAL – PIONEER

• Gary Burbank – the former Billy Purser began his radio career in the mid 1960s but took the name Gary Burbank as a tribute to radio and TV legend Gary Owens and his famous "Laugh-In" introduction. Burbank then dominated Cincinnati radio on WLW-AM until late in 2007.
• Art Laboe – the Los Angeles disc jockey, songwriter, record producer and radio station owner, was the first disc jockey to play rock and roll on the radio on the West Coast during the 50s. His "Killer Oldies" show can now be heard on various West Coast stations.
• Van Miller – the longtime play-by-play announcer of the Buffalo Bills who called games from 1960–1971 and 1977–2003. Miller holds the record for NFL announcers with the same team.
• Ed Walker – the Washington, DC legend whose program "Ed’s Play it Again, Ed" aired on WMAL and garnered one of the largest audiences in DC radio history. Walker currently hosts the nostalgia show "The Big Broadcast" on WAMU airing radio programs from the 30s, 40s and 50s.

NATIONAL – PIONEER

• Dr. Demento – the program created by Barret Hansen in 1970 that developed a cult following with its trend setting collection of novelty songs and comedy skits.
• Dick Orkin – the award-winning voice actor known for his humorous commercials and the man who created the comedy serial "Chickenman", which satirized the TV show "Batman."
• Suspense - the CBS program was "Radio's Outstanding Theater of Thrills" for over 20 years. The devotion to suspense over horror allowed the show to go in directions that no other show could go.
• WLS Barn Dance – the program debuted on April 19, 1924 on powerhouse WLS/Chicago’s first day on air and became an instant hit, introducing country music to the masses with a heavy dose of down-home comedy.

LOCAL OR REGIONAL – ACTIVE

• Terri Hemmert – a disc jockey known for her encyclopedic knowledge of music and especially the Beatles, the civically-active Hemmert made Chicago radio history in 1981 when she became the first female morning drive personality on WXRT-FM.
• Tom Moffatt – a Michigan native, Moffatt first gained notoriety in Hawaii at KGU-AM 760 and later as part of the popular "poi boys" crew of DJs at KPOI-AM 1040. A Hawaiian radio institution, he is now heard Saturdays on 107.9/Honolulu.
• Neil Rogers – a solid ratings king and outspoken talk show host in the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale market for over 30 years, the caustically pointed "Uncle Neil" recently departed his long-time home at 560 WQAM.
• Wendy Williams – a sassy talk show host for more than 20 years, Williams got the radio bug while in college and after stops at WVIS/St.Croix and WOL/Washington DC she landed in New York City, where the media spotlight and massive ratings followed.

NATIONAL – ACTIVE

• Neal Boortz - the opinionated host of the Atlanta-based "Neal Boortz Show," which airs throughout the United States on affiliates of the Jones Radio Network.
• Bob Brinker – the knowledgeable host of "MoneyTalk" on Citadel Media Networks for over 20 years, Brinker shares investment advice and analysis with his audience.
• Joey Reynolds – the legendary host of the nightly "Joey Reynolds Show" is heard nationally on the WOR Radio network, and was one of radio’s original "Top 40" superstars during the 1960’s.
• This American Life – the critically acclaimed weekly exploration of the off beat and obvious aspects of life in America is hosted by the curious and inventive Ira Glass, and shared nationally via Public Radio International.

The National Radio Hall of Fame online balloting is now in progress and will end at midnight on August 1st. Votenet, a highly respected online vote tabulating firm, will supervise the balloting and final results will be ratified by the Steering Committee of the NRHOF in early August.

Click here to go to the website where you can cast your vote for the Radio Hall of Fame inductees!

Voting is free and open to the public; however an online registration will be required.

The NRHOF previously announced its posthumous inductees for 2009, who are:

Jose Miguel Agrelot – the first Hispanic ever inducted into the National Radio Hall of Fame, Agrelot was the most dominant media personality in Puerto Rico until his death in 2004. Known as "The Puerto Rican Bob Hope", Agrelot developed hundreds of different characters during his radio career, including his best known "Don Cholito." He started the longest running program in Puerto Rican radio history "Su Tu Alegre Despertar" which aired for over 50 years.

Harry Kalas – a Philadelphia radio icon who began his career in 1961 calling minor league games while he was in the U.S. Army stationed in Hawaii. Kalas made his major league debut in 1965 calling games for the Houston Astros before being hired as the "voice of the Philadelphia Phillies" in 1971. Kalas, who was also the voice of NFL Films, was nicknamed "Harry the K." Kalas won the hearts of Phillies fans and lived to see his team win the World Series, but collapsed and died on April 13, 2009.

Studs Terkel – the legendary host of his own program on WFMT/Chicago from 1958 to 1998. Terkel was known for his unique interviewing style, which showcased his personal curiosity for the common man as well as the politicians and celebrities who passed his way. An internationally acclaimed personality and best selling author, Terkel was also an inspirational figure and mentor to a younger generation of journalists and literary figures until his death at age 96 on October 31, 2008.

The National Radio Hall of Fame inductions will take place during a live national radio broadcast from Chicago on Saturday, November 7. Premiere Radio Networks will produce and distribute the one-hour broadcast at 10 p.m. EST.

For more information on the National Radio Hall of Fame and to read about and hear all past inductees, please visit www.radiohof.org.

Click here to go to the website where you can cast your vote for the Radio Hall of Fame inductees!

Media Contact:
Gina Loizzo MBC, 312-822-0512
Joan Beaubaire
The Kineo Group, 312-588-3379

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