Pre-Refunded CA GO Bonds

Last weekend a caller asked Bob Brinker if he still felt California General Obligation Bonds he recommended in the past were good, safe investments or if she (the caller) should sell them.

Brinker's reply was

"That's a personal decision, Pamela. I really can't tell you what to do with your bonds. I have some California bonds, but in almost all cases my bonds might be different than your bonds and I'll tell you why. The bonds that I own have Treasuries behind them. In other words, they've been pre-refunded by earlier transactions by the state and backed by Treasuries. So in almost all cases, the California bonds that I own are actually backed by Treasuries and are not backed by the State of California....."

Honeybee gives a full report of the call at Summary: Bob Brinker's Moneytalk December 20, 2008

I looked up what "pre-refunded" means. It simply means Brinker's bonds will be "called" so he will soon get his money back. It is similar to refinancing your home mortgage where the borrower will get a better rate and you have to invest your cash now at very unattractive interest rates. For example, Vanguard's Prime Money Market Fund is only paying about 2.43% these days.

It may also mean he sold his CA GO bonds and bought some of these "prerefunded CA GO Bonds" in the secondary market for their safety but lower interest rate. If he did that, then he should have told the lady caller he sold his CA GO bonds to get safer ones.

If they were called away, then Brinker won't get the interest rate he thought he would get for the full term when he bought the bonds. Brinker will get his money back early and will have to reinvest the money, perhaps at much lower rates than had he bought a CD. Brinker 's audience probably could have done much, much better locking money into CDs (CD Rate Survey) which are not callable so they get the good rates for the full term.

From BondDesk.com Glossary:

Callable Bond: A condition of a bond permitting the issuer to redeem it before maturity on specified dates at specified prices.

Pre-Refund: Bonds that will be called on the stated call (pre-refunded) date. The monies used to call the bonds are on deposit in an irrevocable escrow account from the proceeds of a more recent bond issue from the same issuer. Bonds are pre-refunded in order to take advantage of the lower interest rates, thus lowering the issuer's interest expense.

Call Risk: For a REMIC, the risk that declining interest rates may accelerate mortgage loan prepayment speeds, causing an investor's principal to be returned sooner than expected. As a consequence, investors may have to reinvest their principal at a lower rate of interest.

I don't know why Brinker did not say his bonds have been called and he will get his money back early or he sold his CA GO bonds to buy this safer investment. Maybe he didn't want to admit his advice to buy them turned out to be poor compared to buying CDs of the same term. It would be a good lesson on why buying bonds has risks not often mentioned.

The very low treasury rates for short term monies could be from demand from states like CA buying short term treasuries to "pre-refund" the debt they refinance at lower rates.

• US Treasury Rates at a glance

I also don't know why he refused to answer the caller and give a recommendation for the bonds she owned if they were not called.

With rates so low, banks will try to sell you their annuity products. Make sure you read my article:

Beware of Annuities

"Highest CD Rate Survey + Current US Treasury Rates"

Term	Date	Highest Rate (APY)	Where? (Click link for Full Rate Sheets)
Daily Savings	12/21/08	2.43%	Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund
Tax Exempt	12/21/08	1.03%	Vanguard Tax Exempt Money Market Fund
Online Savings	12/21/08	3.00%	High Performance Money Fund @ Wachovia Bank
3-Month Treasury	12/21/08	-0.01%	US Treasury Rates at a glance
6 Months	12/21/08	3.51%	Fultdirect.com & 3.50% @ Corus Bank
6-Month Treasury	12/21/08	0.14%	US Treasury Rates at a glance
7 Months	12/21/08	2.00%	Wachovia Bank
1 Year	12/21/08	3.90%	MetLife Bank
1 Year Treasury	12/21/08	0.37%	US Treasury Rates at a glance
18 Months	12/21/08	3.95%	MetLife Bank
2 Years	12/21/08	4.25%	MetLife Bank
2 Year Treasury	12/21/08	0.74%	US Treasury Rates at a glance
3 Years	12/21/08	4.35%	MetLife Bank
3-Yr Treasury	12/21/08	1.03%	US Treasury Rates at a glance
4 Years	12/21/08	4.51%	Flagstar Bank & 4.35% @ MetLife Bank
5 Years	12/21/08	5.00%	Washington Mutual - WaMu
5 Yr Treasury	12/21/08	1.36%	US Treasury Rates at a glance
7 Years	12/21/08	4.75%	Pentagon Federal Credit Union
10 Yr Treasury	12/21/08	2.12%	US Treasury Rates at a glance
10 Years	12/21/08	4.15%	Intervest National Bank
30 Yr Treasury	12/21/08	2.55%	US Treasury Rates at a glance

Comment on This Article

Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah to all!!

Bob Brinker Bottom Catching Humor

I found this cartoon on another message board.

To: happy_camper on 12/22/2008 at 4:53:59 PM
From: Runomo™

Here's another one pointing out the perils of trying to catch a bottom in this market .....

I am sure Bob Brinker followers can relate given the bottoms Brinker has called as shown on this graph.


Here is hoping you can beat the chimp throwing darts at the Wall Street Journal next year.

With rates so low, banks will try to sell you their annuity products. Make sure you read my article:

Beware of Annuities

Merry Christmas Everyone!

Post and Read Comments Here

Mark Hubert: Bob Brinker Remains Bullish, Same as Last Year

According to newsletter tracker Mark Hulbert, Bob Brinker remains bullish for December 2008. In "Bruised but bullish" Mark writes:

Four of five newsletters on Honor Roll are bullish...

So it behooves us to pay attention to what they are saying.....

You might still object, on the grounds that this same exercise a year ago also reached a bullish conclusion, and yet the stock market is some 40% lower today.

It is a valid objection. Hulbert's methodology of following writers he thinks are the "best market timers" was 100% wrong this year.

See my discussion of Mark Hulbert's November 15, 2007 article: Bob Brinker Still Bullish According to Mark Hulbert where I reported:

"Bob Brinker remains bullish along with the other eight top market timers Mark tracks. The best news is the worst market timers are bearish."

and Mark reported:

"Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early November (2007), editor Bob Brinker writes: "We continued to believe that there is no risk of a cyclical bear market (a decline of 20% or more as measured by the S&P 500 index) in the months ahead ... We expect the stock market to set a series of new record highs into next year." His model portfolios are fully invested."

As you know, Brinker followed this forecast up with a "gift horse buying opportunity" in the mid 1400s.

Click chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com for full size image

This is what Hulbert says now:

Bob Brinker's Marketimer. This newsletter makes it onto this year's honor roll even though editor Brinker last year did not expect the stock market to decline more than 20%. That he nevertheless remains on the Honor Roll is testament both to how good his market calls have been on other occasions over the past 18 years, as well as to the failure of most other newsletters to also anticipate the severity of the market's decline. He was in good company, in other words, and the Honor Roll is graded on the curve.

Brinker currently believes the stock market is in a perhaps extended bottoming process, and he therefore recommends that subscribers invest in the stock market on a dollar-cost-averaging basis. "We are aware that there is widespread fear that financial Armageddon is the likely outcome of the global financial crisis. We take the opposite view, and expect the stock market to record significant gains during the next major market uptrend. We continue to focus our efforts on the ongoing bottoming process that we regard as essential to establishing the level from which a sustainable market uptrend can occur. When we reach the point at which we can upgrade our current stock market view from dollar-cost-average to a renewed buy recommendation, we will do so."

Brinker has had a lot of practice calling these bottoms! With the market reecently up 20% off the recent low on more than one day, he missed one.

Click chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com for full size image

Not to worry about missing bottoms, Bob Brinker has been fully invested since March 2003 . He recommended against taking profits at the top so he has taken a round trip. The other market timers Hulbert follows must be putrid if Brinker's results are the best of the lot.

Comment on this article here

$50B Ponzi Scheme

I posted the full story yesterday on my blog, "Kirk's Market Thoughts"

Friday, December 12, 2008:
Bernard L. Madoff Arrested for $50B Ponzi Scheme
Too good to be true? It probably was.

and

Regulators have not yet verified the scale of the fraud. But the criminal complaint filed against Mr. Madoff on Thursday in federal court in Manhattan reports that he estimated the losses at $50 billion. “We are alleging a massive fraud — both in terms of scope and duration,” said Linda Chatman Thomsen, director of the enforcement division at the Securities and Exchange Commission. “We are moving quickly and decisively to stop the fraud and protect remaining assets for investors.”

Read the full article:

• Bernard L. Madoff Arrested for $50B Ponzi Scheme

New Bull Market Starts After the 3rd Worst Bear Market Since 1927

The S&P500 officially started a new bull market following the 3rd Worst Bear Market Since 1927. It is too bad Bob Brinker was fully invested at the very top but the good news is he has been fully invested for this new bull market.

Chart courtesy of http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com

As shown, the bear market that ran from 10/9/07 to 11/20/08 is the third worst ever with a decline of 51.93%. The bears that ended in June of 1932 (-61.81%) and March of 1938 (-54.47%) are the only two that had bigger declines without a rally of 20%.

The good news is the S&P 500 is finally up 20% off the recent lows of November 21, 2008. This means we are currently in a new bull market as defined as a 20% rally after a 20% or more decline.

Markets Since 11-21-08 Lows

Chart by KirkLindstrom.blogspot.com

New=>US Treasury Rates at a Glance


Post your Comments Here

.

Gulf Oil CEO Joe Petrowski: Oil Could Fall to $20 and Gasoline to $1 in 2009

Gulf Oil CEO says gas could hit $1 next year: On Wednesday, Gulf Oil CEO Joe Petrowski said that the price of oil could sink to $20 per barrel, and there is a chance gasoline prices could drop as low as $1 per gallon by early next year. Petrowski said speculators drove oil prices up and there is a chance that the market will overshoot on the way back down, resulting in much lower prices at the pump than we have now.

Oil Prices Per Barrel courtesy of Stockcharts.com

On Saturday July 12, 2008 Bob Brinker commented on oil prices:

Here we see oil having closed the week at an all-time-record-high, close to $145 for a barrel of oil………..And there is an inverse relationship that has developed between upward spikes in oil prices and the stock market, and that inverse relationship has really been showing up now for some time.

Now why is there this correlation – we see the S&P 500 sitting in in the 1240 area. We see the Dow sitting in at 11,100 area. We see the Nasdaq Composite trading in the 2200’s. Why is there this correlation between the price of a barrel of oil and what goes on in the stock market? I think the answer to that question is easy, and that is consumers, wind up with less money to spend when they get pounded with these higher costs of energy, costs of gasoline, all the products in the energy complex. And that weakens the status of the consumer and also delays the potential for economic recovery.

"The stock market wants to see an economic recovery scenario. It does not want to see an increased oil price scenario, which is was it’s seeing right now. Now I wish I could tell you what the price of oil is going to be in a week, a month, a year. I don’t know. I have no way of knowing and I think only a fool would try to forecast the price of a barrel of oil in the world we live in…….”

Since March 2003, Bob Brinker was fully invested in the stock market with all in buys for the S&P500 in the mid 1400s, mid 1300s and even the mid 1200s as shown on this graph.

The price of oil AND the stock markets have crashed so the "inverse relationship" is not valid at all.

What Brinker said in June was nonsense and is nonsense today as the clear link between economic growth and the price of oil demonstrates.

High oil prices were due to booming global economies creating huge demand with speculators piling on to push prices higher. This was not rocket science but simple economics of supply and demand.

Likewise, today we are plunging into a global recession with many fearing depression. Obviously the demand for oil is plunging which leads to plunging oil prices.

Now the market is at:

12/05/2008 ET	Last	Change		As of:
.DJIA	8,130.53	-245.71		10:46am
NASDAQ	1,409.73	-35.83		10:46am
S&P500	819.34	-25.88		10:46am

Maybe one day we will hear Bob Brinker say on the radio that predicting the price of the stock market is just as hard as predicting the price of oil. Can you imagine if Brinker said:

I think only a fool would try to forecast the price of the stock market in the world we live in…….

I am not holding my breath. It is very hard to sell a newsletter called "Marketimer" when your market timing has you wildly bullish with a "gift horse buy" in the mid 1400s just before the biggest market crash since the Great Depression!

Post your Comments Here

Best 6-Month CD Rate: 4.32% at the State Bank of India

The State Bank of India, with FDIC insurance at its US Branches in New York City and Chicago, has a 6-month CD with a 4.32% annual percentage rate . This compares well with the 6-month US Treasury Rate of only 0.29%. Contact information here.

For long term, the top rate for CDs this week is 5.31% offered by Intervest National Bank for a 7-year certificate of deposit.

The table below shows the best CD rates for other terms.

"Highest CD Rate Survey + Current US Treasury Rates"

Term	Date	Highest Rate (APY)	Where? (Click link for Full Rate Sheets)
Daily Savings	12/04/08	2.60%	Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund
Tax Exempt	12/04/08	1.13%	Vanguard Tax Exempt Money Market Fund
Online Savings	12/04/08	3.25%	High Performance Money Fund @ Wachovia Bank
3-Month Treasury	12/04/08	0.01%	US Treasury Rates at a glance
6 Months	12/04/08	4.32%	State Bank of India & 3.76% at Ascencia Bank
6-Month Treasury	12/04/08	0.29%	US Treasury Rates at a glance
7 Months	12/04/08	2.60%	Wachovia Bank
1 Year	12/04/08	4.68%	State Bank of India
1 Year Treasury	12/04/08	0.64%	US Treasury Rates at a glance
18 Months	12/04/08	4.40%	UmbrellaBank
2 Years	12/04/08	4.50%	UmbrellaBank
1 Year Treasury	12/04/08	0.90%	US Treasury Rates at a glance
3 Years	12/04/08	4.75%	Intervest National Bank
3-Yr Treasury	12/04/08	1.09%	US Treasury Rates at a glance
4 Years	12/04/08	5.05%	Intervest National Bank & 4.75% @ Capital One
5 Years	12/04/08	5.25%	Intervest National Bank & 5.10% @ Capital One
5 Yr Treasury	12/04/08	1.61%	US Treasury Rates at a glance
7 Years	12/04/08	5.50%	Capital One & 4.75% @ PenFed CU
10 Yr Treasury	12/04/08	2.63%	US Treasury Rates at a glance
10 Years	12/04/08	5.31%	Intervest National Bank
30 Yr Treasury	12/04/08	3.13%	US Treasury Rates at a glance

Make sure you read the article:

=>How to Get the Best CD Rates

Bear Market Update - Down 53% from the Peak

The statistics and charts below show the S&P500, DJIA and NASDAQ are currently down 52%, 48%, and 54%, respectively from the top.

Don't be fooled by any new "buy signals" or talk from Bob Brinker saying he is working to "identify a bottom" in this bear market. Bob Brinker was wildly bullish at the top. He had his "balanced Model Portfolio #3" 66% in equities at the top while his Model portfolios #1 and #2 were 100% in equities at the top with "dollar cost average" new money except for several "buy levels" where he advised putting it all in at once.

He also told his subscribers who had any "new money" that the mid 1400s was a "gift horse buying opportunity." About a year ago in his December 5, 2007 Marketimer newsletter with the S&P500 at 1481, Bob Brinker wrote:

“The short-term correction that began in October and continued into November has served as a health-restoring pullback and has paved the way for new record highs in the S&P500 index”

and

“Marketimer subscribers have been able to add to positions on this short-term correction based on our recommendation to view the stock market as attractive for purchase on any weakness into the mid-1400’s range.”

and

"We continue to believe that a bear market is not on the radar screen at this time. We expect the bull market to continue at least well into 2008, and look for significant stock market gains."

Finally, he wrote

“We continue to rate the market as attractive for purchase in the mid-1400’s… Any additional weakness below this range is regarded as a gift horse buying opportunity.”

Needless to say, Brinker rode a 53% (so far) bear market down fully invested with no cash raised via profit taking at the top to buy equities now that they are 50% off.


2007-2008 Bear Market Statistics 11/23/08

S&P500 Chart

Last Market High 10/11/07 at 1,576.09
Last Market low 11/21/08 at 741.02
Current S&P500 Price 800.03
Decline in Points = 776.06
Decline in percent = 49.2%
Max Decline = 53.0%

=>This means the decline from intraday high to intraday low is 53.0% and we are currently 49.2% off the peak.
=>The decline in the S&P500 from the closing high to the closing low was 51.9%

DJIA Charts

Last Market High 10/11/07 at 14,279.96
Last Market Low 11/21/08 at 7,392.27
Current DJIA Price 8,046.42
Decline in Points = 6,233.54
Decline in percent = 43.7%
Max Decline = 48.2%

=>This means the decline from high to low has been 48.2% and we are currently 43.7% off the peak.
=>The decline in the DOW off the closing high to the closing low was 46.7%

NASDAQ Charts

Last Market High 10/31/07 at 2,861.51
Last Market Low 11/21/08 at 1,295.35
Current NASDAQ Price1,384.35
Decline in Points = 1,477.16
Decline in percent = 51.6%
Max Decline = 54.7%

=>This means the decline from intraday high to intraday low is 54.7% and we are currently 51.6% off the peak.
=>The decline in the NASDAQ off the closing high to the closing low was 54.0%


Not everyone was as wildly bullish as Bob Brinker at the top. Some of us took profits[Oct 2007 Take Profits Alert (pdf)] and had significant cash reserves so we can go shopping now with these 50% off sales.

Like anyone who invests in the stock market using asset allocation, I am down significantly from the peak. I don't pretend to time the stock market. The good news is that by taking profits and some good stock selection, my "newsletter explore portfolio" is through today still

• up 28% from the 2002 bear market bottom and
  
• up 82% since 12/31/98 while the S&P500 is DOWN 24% over the same period (12/31/98 to 11/23/08.)

To learn what I have been buying, including two buys on 11/20/08, the day the market made the intraday low so far for this bear market, subscribe to Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter.

Post your Comments Here

Two of the Worst Stock Market Calls in History

Humor is the only medicine for those who took Bob Brinker's advice to be 100% in equities at the start of 2008 and to hold those 100% positions all the way down. (Advice for Model portfolios #1 and #2. Model portfolio #3 was about 66% in equities at the top.)

"Tom" posted this bit of humor on "Honey's Bob Brinker Beehive Buzz" in the comment section for her article titled "S&P 500 Index Below Brinker's March, 2003 Buy Signal."

2 very bad market calls in history:

"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."
Irving Fisher, October 1929

"We continue to believe that a bear market (S&P Index decline in excess of 20%) is not on the radar screen at this time."
Bob Brinker, December 2007

Click to see full size chart

Tom had some good ones, but these are pretty good also:

June 2007 Marketimer:

”In our view, the valuation based secular bear market that was established following the March, 2000 closing high for the S&P500 index (1527.46) and following the January, 2000 closing high for the DJIA (11723), reached its conclusion on June 13, 2006 at the bottom of the mid-term off-presidential election year correction.”

December 5, 2007 Marketimer (S&P 1481) Bob Brinker wrote:

“The short-term correction that began in October and continued into November has served as a health-restoring pullback and has paved the way for new record highs in the S&P500 index.”

and

“Marketimer subscribers have been able to add to positions on this short-term correction based on our recommendation to view the stock market as attractive for purchase on any weakness into the mid-1400’s range”

and

"We continue to believe that a bear market is not on the radar screen at this time. We expect the bull market to continue at least well into 2008, and look for significant stock market gains."

Finally, he wrote

“We continue to rate the market as attractive for purchase in the mid-1400’s… Any additional weakness below this range is regarded as a gift horse buying opportunity.”

Click to see full size chart

Riddle: What do you call a "market timer" who rides a 45% or more bear market down while fully invested and giving "gift horse buy signals" after the first decline under 10% near the top?

Please post your answers in our comment section.

4% to 5% CDs are looking pretty smart these days.

• 4% 1YR CD at Wachovia Bank
  
• 5% 3 to 7 Yr CDs at Pentagon Federal Credit Union

Long Term Results that Speak for Themselves
Since 9/30/98 inception, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 373%
vs. the S&P500 UP only 52% vs. NASDAQ UP only 55% (All through 11/30/11) 
(More Info, Testimonials & Portfolio Returns)

In 2010, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" gained 20.4% vs. the DJIA up 11.0%
In 2009, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" gained 33.5% vs. the DJIA up 18.8%

S&P500 Earnings for 2008 vs. Bob Brinker's Prediction

In January 2008, Bob Brinker thought S&P500 earnings would be nearly $100 for 2008. In his January 2008 newsletter, Brinker wrote:

Marketimer currently estimates S&P 500 Index operating earnings for 2008 of $97.10... Using our forward price/earnings multiple estimate of 16.5 to 17 times earnings, the S&P 500 Index should be able to achieve a price level into the 1600's range this year.

In our view, stock market valuation remains reasonable, with the current P/E ratio on the S&P 500 Index at 15.1 based on our 2008 operating earnings estimate.

This chart below shows ACTUAL trailing 12-month earnings are less than half what Brinker projected for operating earnings.


Operating earnings are not real. Operating earnings are what companies say they would have earned from “normal operations.” I think it is smoke and mirrors!

Real or "GAAP earnings" include options expensing, law suit settlements and other write offs such as the special charges companies take for restructuring or sub prime defaults at the major banks. GAAP stands for “Generally Accepted Accounting Principles.” I like to follow BOTH because some companies make a habit of writing off mistakes and lawsuit settlements as a regular part of their business to make their operating earnings look better.

In my November 2008 newsletter I wrote:

2008 Operating EPS (bottom up) = $75.94

2008 As reported (GAAP) EPS (top Down) = $54.51

2009 Operating EPS (Top Down) = $62.40

2009 GAAP EPS(top down) = $48.52

Operating earnings suggest the market is under valued while GAAP earnings suggest the market is fairly valued to slightly over valued if earnings contraction from a deep recession continues into 2010.

It should be little wonder why the stock market was down almost 50% from its 2007 peak given we are in a recession that is going to be much worse than most expected at the start of the year, especially Bob Brinker!

The stock market can recover when earnings recover. Some of the the bad news bears say earnings won't ever recover but that is not my belief.

Using Bob Brinker's 16.5 to 17 times OPERATING earnings and S&P's estimates for 2009 of $62.40, I calculate $1029 to $1060 for the S&P500 "fair value." This "low number" may explain why Brinker is not now pounding the table bullish in the 900s despite being very bullish on the radio at S&P1400 earlier this year when he bashed the Cassandras (See Cassandra Rant) on May 31, 2008.

Not everyone thought we would avoid a recession this year. See my March 2008 article " ECRI Calls it "A Recession of Choice." Given I believe Brinker reads my blog and the comments regularly, it was fun to hear him refer to us as "Cassandras" just days after I published that article that said a recession was unavoidable.

To learn what I recommend today:

Subscribe to Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter NOW!

ECRI WLI GRowth Rate Continues Plunge to Record Lows

Today the Economic Cycle Research Institute, or ECRI an independent forecasting group based in New York, said its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) fell to its lowest level in its six decade history. The WLI and its growth rate are designed to predict future turning points in the business cycle (recessions and recoveries.)

• More about ECRI
  

Today ECRI said its WLI fell to 110.9 for the period ending October 31, 2008. Last week WLI was 112.9 .

The WLI growth rate fell to -24.6%, down from -21.9% last week.

Commenting on the data, Anirvan Banerji, from ECRI said

"We are now in a severe recession."

and

"The leading indicators are showing no light at the end of this tunnel. In the last week of October they registered their worst readings in their six decades of history. It tells you the economy's not just down, it's plunging. There is no end in sight to this recession."

Date and graph courtesy of Economic Cycle Research Institute

Jobless rate bolts to 14-year high of 6.5 percent in October; 240,000 jobs cut

• The jobless rate zoomed to 6.5 percent in October from 6.1 percent in September, matching the rate in March 1994.
• Unemployment has now surpassed the high seen after the last recession in 2001. The jobless rate peaked at 6.3 percent in June 2003.
• October's decline marked the 10th straight month of payroll reductions

In this March 28, 2008 article, ECRI Called it "A Recession of Choice." At the same time Bob Brinker called ECRI and others "Cassandras" for scaring investors out of stocks in the 1300s and 1400s. In this May 31, 2008 "Cassandra Rant" when the S&P500 was last at 1400, Bob Brinker told his radio audience:

“What we have right in here now is evidence that the Cassandras, who earlier this year, were telling us we were in recession – right now they’ve basically – well I’ll be kind, basically, they look like fools right now.

….So what we have here basically, is an example of false prophets and it’s sad. And the reason it’s sad is the damage done. Think of the people that are looking today at the market, S&P at 1400 and they’ve been scared out of the market in the first quarter by these bears………

It’s just amazing and yet these people are out there, and these people are not happy, I’m sure, to find themselves out of a rising market since March. To find themselves looking for ever lower prices when in fact we’ve had the opposite."

Bob should have listened to the Cassandras or at least admit he of all people can not time the stock market or predict the economy.

Current Market numbers (Stock Markets at a Glance):

• DJIA = 8,888.94
• NASDAQ = 1,643.51
• S&P500 = 924.90

Check Out US Treasury Rates at a Glance

Click to Post Comments on this Article

==> Very Best CD Rates with FDIC <==

Survey of Best CD Rates With FDIC Insurance

The best CD rate 1 year or less is 4.40% at Flagstar Bank & 4.36% @ GMAC Bank.

You can often get higher than advertised rates at your local branch if you do your homework. Print out the "Highest CD Rate Survey" and bring it in with you. Also print out some of the advertisements showing rates advertised on your bank's competing web sites so you have proof. (Make sure the date shows on your printout so they know it is current.)

From the "Highest CD Rate Survey + Current US Treasury Rates" at VeryBestCDrates.com, the best CD rate is 5.00% at Capital One Bank for Terms of 7 and 10 years.

Here is the table with more rates and terms:

"Highest CD Rate Survey + Current US Treasury Rates"

Term	Date	Highest Rate (APY)	Where? (Click link for Full Rate Sheets)
Daily Savings	11/06/08	2.78%	Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund
Tax Exempt	11/06/08	1.79%	Vanguard Tax Exempt Money Market Fund
Online Savings	11/06/08	3.00	at HSBC Bank
3-Month Treasury	11/06/08	0.33%	US Treasury Rates at a glance
6 Months	11/06/08	4.15%	Excel National Bank and 4.00% at HSBC Bank
6-Month Treasury	11/06/08	0.83%	US Treasury Rates at a glance
7 Months	11/06/08	3.00%	Wachovia Bank
1 Year	11/06/08	4.40%	Flagstar Bank & 4.36% @ GMAC Bank,
1 Year Treasury	11/06/08	1.16%	US Treasury Rates
18 Months	11/06/08	4.50%	Advanta Bank Corp
2 Years	11/06/08	4.50%	GMAC Bank
3 Years	11/06/08	4.75%	Intervest National Bank
3-Yr Treasury	11/06/08	1.59%	US Treasury Rates at a glance
4 Years	11/06/08	5.00%	Intervest National Bank & 4.96% @ Discover Bank
5 Years	11/06/08	5.05%	Intervest National Bank & 5.00% @ Capital One
5 Yr Treasury	11/06/08	2.47%	US Treasury Rates at a glance
7 Years	11/06/08	5.00%	Pentagon Federal Credit Union
10 Yr Treasury	11/06/08	3.69%	US Treasury Rates at a glance
30 Yr Treasury	11/06/08	4.20%	US Treasury Rates at a glance

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Be careful when you go to your bank and ask for their best rate. They will often use that as an excuse to sell you an annuity that sounds good on the surface, but is far more profitable for them due to the higher fees.

Make sure you read the Article: Beware of Annuities