Bob Brinker just now said on the radio that he thinks the market is in a correction. He also said he thinks the market is "attractive for purchase" in the neighborhood of the June 30th low which he said was SnP500 1030.
Here is a list of Bob Brinker's other "attractive for purchase" levels with dates. Note that he has not identified an "attractive to sell" or "attractive to take profits" since the summer of 2000.
Brinker 2008, 2009 and 2010 Buy Levels
- January 4, 2008, SnP500 at 1411: Mid-1400's "Gift horse buying opportunity"
- Feb 10, 2008 SnP500 @ 1331: Low-1300's
- Aug 5, 2008 SnP500 at 1285: 1240 or less
- Sept 2, 2008 SnP500 at 1282: Low-to-mid 1200's
- September 16th -- rescinded low-to-mid 1200's (recommended dollar cost-average only)
- January 2009 SnP500 at 931: “ bear market bottom range of 750 to 850.
- Feb. 2009 SnP500 at 826: “low-to-mid 800’s.
- March 5, 2009 SnP500 at 696: waiting for a bottom and a test of that low. No dollar cost average or buy levels near the very lows!
- April 3, 2009 SnP500 at 798: 676 benchmark low in. Short-term weakness is buying opportunity. He gave up giving specifics. SnP500 Target: 1000s to 1100s in next 12 to 18 months. (we got there in 5 months!)
- July 2, 2010 SnP500 at 1030: Attractive for purchase. Confirmed on Moneytalk on July 11, 2010.
Click graph for full size image
Brinker returned to "fully invested in March 2003 and has stayed that way ever since.
Bob's guest today was Suzanne McGee, author of the book Chasing Goldman Sachs: How the Masters of the Universe Melted Wall Street Down . . . And Why They'll Take Us to the Brink Again
.
You can listen to the Sunday Moneytalk broadcast for free at the KGO Archives (1 - 4 PM PST) for the week following the show. After listening, the ReplayAV software will let you copy the file from your computer's memory to a permanent place on your hard drive to upload to a portable MP3 player.
...and let's not forget Bob's QQQ buy recommendation a few years back. Another fumble. Since he called the tech bubble burst, I don't think he's added one pelt to his belt. For the first six months of the financial crisis meltdown, his newsletter talked only about the economy "struggling in the headwind of high energy prices."
ReplyDeleteThanks, Bob, but no thanks.
On his radio show yesterday, it was made quite clear that THE BRINKER BOTTOM for this correction in an ongoing CYCLICAL BULL MARKET is in the area of S&P 1030 or below - about 5% below current levels. Looking at a chart of the S&P 500, the bottom and the retest at a slightly higher level are quite visible.
ReplyDeleteBrinker cited a number of potentially positives in the coming months that he believes an propel the market upwards. Amongst them were the "higher railroad car loadings" this year which he said would not be occurring if we were going into a double dip recession. I thought that was Bob down there at the railway station counting something :-)
Brinker stated there will be a lot of happy campers amongst investors at these levels when the S&P 500 eclipses the previous highs for this cycle.
6:44 AM, Anonymous wrote:
ReplyDelete"...and let's not forget Bob's QQQ buy recommendation a few years back. Another fumble. "
Thanks for the reminder.
For those who don't know, read
=> Bob Brinker's QQQ Advice
and
=> Effect of QQQ advice on reported results
for the full story.
Kirk
ReplyDeleteBrinker's take on the stock market Sunday sounded a lot like his take back on Saturday, April 19, 2008. Here are some excepts:
Bob Brinker’s stock market discussion began with his opening monologue. He presented the closing level of the S&P 500 Index (1390), Dow (12,849), and Nasdaq (2412). Brinker said that investors were doing the “inevitable -- discounting the future of economic recovery.” Brinker said that in his opinion, the “real returns going forward into the next year” will be in the stock market.
BRINKER’S STAND ON STOCK MARKET…....Brinker said: "One thing is for sure if you’re a Moneytalk listener, you know where I stand on the stock market.
Later, Brinker, in answer to his guest speaker’s direct question, “Are you still bullish," said that he thinks we are going to have “new record highs in the stock market by next year” but that a lot of people think he’s lost his mind. Brinker added: “We’ll see who wins out. I’m pretty confident of my forecast…..”
WELL WE ALL KNOW HOW THAT TURNED OUT.
Lower gas prices = lower inflation says bls.gov
ReplyDeleteCore inflation was up.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the index increased 1.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.
Similarly to April and May, a decline in the energy index caused the seasonally adjusted all items decrease in June. The index for energy decreased 2.9 percent in June, the same decline as in May, with a decline in the gasoline index accounting for most of the decrease. This more than offset an increase in the index for all items less food and energy, while the food index was unchanged for the second month in a row.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in June after increasing 0.1 percent in May. A broad array of indexes posted increases, including shelter, apparel, used cars, medical care, tobacco, and recreation. These increases more than offset declines in the indexes for household furnishings and operations and for airline fares. The 12-month change in the index for all items less food and energy remained at 0.9 percent for the third month in a row.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
Note Table A shows how energy was up 3.0% over the past year thus contributing to inflation (inflationary) rather than deflation (deflationary) counter to what Brinker used to claim.
If picking stock trends was like sex, Brinker couldn't get laid in a 10 cent whore house with a dollar in his pocket.
ReplyDelete