What does Bob Brinker have in common with David Kostin, Barry Knapp, Dan Chung, Richard Bernstein, David Bianco, Abby Joseph Cohen, and Bob Doll?
The answer is they are all bullish as 2010 ends and we enter 2011 but Bob Brinker is the least bullish of these experts.
Honeybee reported on Sunday (Dec. 26, 2010) Bob Brinker's current market outlook:
Bob Brinker's latest stock market views:
- Brinker is bullish on the stock market, his portfolios are fully invested and his S&P 500 Index target range for 2011 is: Marketimer, December 3, 2010, Bob Brinker said: "....we project a target range in the low-to-mid 1300's for the S&P 500 Index as we move forward in 2011."
With the S&P500 currently at 1,258.51 (Quote and chart), low 1300s is not much of a reach. Others are going more out on a limb with predictions of mid 1400s to 1500!
In the comments section of the same article, sivbum summarized the targets for other gurus:
- Besides BB's bullish call, there are a bunch more:
- David Kostin, Goldman Sachs, target is 1450.
- Barry Knapp, Barclay’s (BCS) has a 1420 year end target.
- Dan Chung, Alger Funds, hit 1500-plus at some point in the S&P 500 next year.
- Richard Bernstein expects about a 15% rise on the S&P 500 in the next 12 months.
- David Bianco, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, has about 15% in total returns.
- Abby Joseph Cohen, Goldman Sachs,12-month market forecast for the S&P is 1450.
- Bob Doll, Black Rock, double digit returns, including dividends.
You have to take what they say with a grain of salt, Honeybee also reported:
Interesting to compare what Brinker was saying three years ago before the market dropped over 57%:
- January 4, 2008 Marketimer, Page 3; Paragraph 1; (S&P 1468.36), Bob Brinker said: "In summary....conditions are favorable for the market as we enter 2008. We expect the S&P 500 Index to achieve new record highs this year and to reach the 1600's range in the process. We continue to rate the market attractive for purchase on any weakness into the S&P 500 index mid-1400's range. Above that range we prefer a dollar-cost- average approach for new purchases. All Marketimer Model Portfolios remain fully invested as we enter 2008......And I believe those new all-time-historic-record highs will develop as we move into 2009."
Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 213% vs. the S&P500 UP only 25% vs. NASDAQ UP a only 22% (All through 12/27/10)
In 2009, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" gained 33.5% vs. the DJIA up 18.8%
2010 YTD my "Explore Portfolio" is up 20.7% YTD
(the explore portfolio has 70% in equities and 30% in fixed income so the stocks are doing very, very well)
In 2009, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" gained 33.5% vs. the DJIA up 18.8%
2010 YTD my "Explore Portfolio" is up 20.7% YTD
(the explore portfolio has 70% in equities and 30% in fixed income so the stocks are doing very, very well)
Today's market closing numbers:
| Dow | 11,575.54 | +20.51 | +0.18% |
| Nasdaq | 2,662.88 | -4.39 | -0.16% |
| S&P 500 | 1,258.51 | +0.97 | +0.08% |
| 10 Yr Bond(%) | 3.4810% | +0.1300 | |
| Oil | 91.25 | +0.25 | +0.27% |
| Gold | 1,405.90 | +23.50 | +1.70% |
Returns for last 12 years: 2010 YTD through 12/15/10
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I don't know about Kirk or where his portfolio was in 2008,, and Brihnker missed the most recent bear market, but 2009 and 2010 were great years to be in the market.
ReplyDeleteNow we are heading into 2011 with bulish sentiment at extremes, but everyone seems to be warning us of bullish extremes. So do you go with everyone (the bulls) or everyone (the bears) who are warning us?
It will be interesting...
Hi Muckdog
ReplyDelete"I don't know about Kirk or where his portfolio was in 2008...
It was lower than it is now. See my latest article:
My Portfolios at All Time Highs as we Enter 2011
"Brihnker missed the most recent bear market, but 2009 and 2010 were great years to be in the market."
Indeed Brinker missed it (with bottom calls most of the way down except for the last 200 points) and you are right that the last two years have been excellent. I know people who got out of the market near the bottom in 2008 or early 2009 and I feel almost guilty beaming with pride that my own investment portfolio is at an all time high despite using it to generate income to live on for about 10 of the past 12 years.
So do you go with everyone (the bulls) or everyone (the bears) who are warning us?
Neither. I have about 70% in equities and 30% in fixed income. This is very similar to how Warren Buffet invests. If the market goes down, I have cash to take advantage of "Specials." If it keeps going up, I keep taking profits, rebalancing, maybe deleting a bad idea and investing in a new one until there is another big decline to generate obvious bargains again. I think it is both foolish and arrogant to go "all in" or "all out" as we've seen how bad even the top rated timers are at timing the market over and over.
Am living overseas in the Middle East and wonder if it's good to enter S&P and Wilshire 5000. Am interested in your newsletter.
ReplyDeleteHi Joe.
ReplyDeleteI see you found my "request free sample link" at the bottom of this page. Your sample was sent via email. If you have questions, use email and I will answer them.
Here is an update on results for "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio":
From 12/31/98 through 12/31/10 it was gained 212% (a triple plus another 12%!!) vs. the S&P500 UP only 25% vs. NASDAQ UP only 21%
For 2011 , "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is up 5.8% YTD as of 2/5/11
In 2010, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" gained 20.4% vs. the DJIA up 11.0%
In 2009, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" gained 33.5% vs. the DJIA up 18.8%
The explore portfolio has roughly 70% in equities and 30% in fixed income so the stocks did are performing very, very well. Unlike Brinker, I rebalance OFTEN, took major profits in 2007 so I had a load of cash to buy low in 2009 near the very bottom (See my FNSR & GE buy alerts made public on March 12, 2009) and all my buys and sells are accounted for on my record. (For example, I have no "off the books QQQ advice")