Bob Brinker Market Advice & Marketimer Special Bulletin

This article gives a short update on the stock market followed by an update of Bob Brinker's May investment advice.

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Market Update:  The four major US stock indexes I track are all in the green year-to-date (YTD) with the Nasdaq up 7.6% and the Dow only up 0.7%.

This year the market as measured by the S&P 500 had its fourth largest correction of 12% since the secular bull market began in March of 2009.  It would be very bullish if the S&P 500 corrects down to the falling upper dashed green support line then quickly reverses.   

Likewise, it would be very bearish for it to drop below the lower dashed green support line where filling the gap at 20% off the record high would be highly probable. 

Bob Brinker remains firmly in the Bull Camp:

• Bob Brinker did not issue a "Special Bulletin" to take profits before that correction nor did he issue a bulletin to buy when the market was down 12%.
• Since March 2003, Bob Brinker has had his portfolios one and two 100% in equity mutual funds.  See Bob Brinker's Asset Allocation History.
• Brinker continues to favor dollar cost averaging new money into the market "especially during periods of weakness" which he has not defined.
• Brinker says if a "Marketimer buy signal develops" between his monthly newsletters, then he will "post a Special Subscriber Message for access" at his website.   How old fashioned is that?  I send email alerts the same day, usually within hours when I buy or sell something in my portfolio.  Below my newsletter ad is an example.
• Reading between the lines, the fact Brinker only talks about a special message for a "Buy Signal" between monthly newsletters is a clear indication he's firmly in the Bull camp.

Twenty years ago the market was down a similar 10% and Brinker talked extensively about it on his show and in the newsletter.  He even issued a special buy signal just before it fell another 10% to make an official intraday bear market correction.  
Many of my online friends who follow the markets and especially Brinker lost faith in how he handled this miss. That is he didn't discuss why he was wrong or what he learned. 
My guess is the markets look similar today... they've have a huge run up but are not over valued like they were in 2000 but they are highly valued on a PE ratio basis as you can see in my table in my Brinker article "Bob Brinker Stock Market Targets."

Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter

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More articles:

• Bob Brinker Stock Market Targets
• Beware of Annuities
• Winning the Zigs, losing on the Zags - Why small investors usually do poorly
• Make Money In A Flat Market With Asset Allocation & Market Volatility

Bob Brinker Stock Market Targets

This article compares Bob Brinker's S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2018 and 2019 with those of one of my favorite economists, Dr. Ed Yardeni. 

In almost every Marketimer Newsletter, editor Bob Brinker publishes his earnings estimate for the S&P 500, his estimate for a reasonable price to earnings (PE) ratio range, then a reasonable "potential" price for the S&P 500 index usually calculated by multiplying the two numbers then applying some spit-shine.

Brinker currently estimates the market "has the potential" to reach $2900 when it starts to discount 2019 earnings of $163 with a PE ratio of 17 to 18.  As my table below shows, this is about the highest PE ratio Brinker has thought acceptable since 2008 based on the Marketimer newsletters I surveyed to make the table below.

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Of course, you need to take this numerology with large grains of salt.  For example, ten years ago the market was at $1331 and about to crash to $666 while Brinker predicted new highs into the "$1600s range" as I highlight in this table.

I'll try to provide regular updates of that table here because it has some interesting calculations and it provides a good historical record.

 Here is an example from his May 3, 2017 Marketimer how he frames the data with words.

From over 20 years of following Brinker, I've noticed he usually starts his S&P 500 earnings estimates lower than the consensus of the average of most analysts tracked by tracking services. Then if the year goes well, Brinker raises his estimates such that by the end of the year they are close to consensus.  This also allows him to raise his estimates for the market price before it moves "closer to the period when investors will discount" the next year's earnings estimates.   

Dr. Ed Yardeni's Estimates: This is what one of my favorite economists, Dr. Ed Yardeni, publishes.

Note how Dr. Yardeni also has a below consensus forecast for 2018 and 2019 S&P 500 earnings of $155 and 166, respectively.

Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter

 Subscribe NOW and get the May 2018 Issue for FREE!!!

SPECIAL BENEFIT:  All questions about what I write answered by Email. 
If what I write is not clear to you, just ask! 

(Your 1 year, 12 issue subscription with SPECIAL ALERT emails will start with November issue.

Get email alerts when I buy or sell securities for my explore portfolio

"Auto Buy" and "Auto Sell" levels set ahead of time for target buy and sell levels for my securities.  This allows you to place "limit orders" with your broker in advance so you can go about your business.

Today's S&P 500 Chart

Dr. Ed Yardeni is a regular guest on CNBC, the financial show that runs from "Squawk Box" starting at 3 AM PST to Jim Cramer's "Mad Money" ending at 4 PM PST.  See www.yardeni.com for more information about Dr. Ed.