Bob Brinker's Last Buying Opportunity

Bob Brinker's last "Buying Opportunity" was issued via a bulletin to his subscribers on September 22, 2011.  It read:

September 22, 2011
S&P 500 Index: 1129.56  

In the September edition of Marketimer we continued to recommend a dollar-cost-average on market weakness approach for subscribers looking to add to their stock market holdings. We also stated that in the event an attractive buying opportunity developed between regular monthly investment letter editions, we would post a Special Subscriber Message on the website for subscriber access.  

In our view, the conditions are now in place to justify an upgrade of our stock market view to "attractive for purchase" for subscribers looking for an opportunity to invest new money into the market at attractive prices.  

Following any additional backing and filling that may occur within the vicinity of the recent correction lows, we anticipate that the market will transition into a renewed uptrend based on our corporate earnings outlook into next year. In our view, the S&P 500 Index has the potential to trade into the low-to-mid 1400s range in 2012. 

That was a good time to buy, of course with the markets near record all-time highs, any time in the past has worked out as a great time to buy, even if you bought at the last tops and reinvested dividends.  

With the markets very near their record highs, I can see why he's worried now, but you have to wonder why he missed 1278 and 1353 in 2012 or even a "gift horse buy" at the start of 2013 before the market gained over 32%.

IF you look at a long-term trend chart of the S&P500 on a log scale, you can make a case to say it is about in the middle of its long-term trading range.  Thus my advice is dollar cost average into an appropriate asset allocation for your age.

I can also see why he has remained fully invested since March 2003.  He knows he doesn't add value with his timing.

My advice is ignore all of Brinker's market timing hocus pocus.  If he could really time the stock market, then he

• would not have missed the greatest bear market since the Great Depression by issuing a "Gift Horse Buying Opportunity" in the mid 1400s as the market began its plunge from the 1500s to 666.  See Bob Brinker's Asset Allocation History
• Would not have told subscribers to invest up to half their cash reserves into the NASDAQ just before it fell by over 80%.  See Effect of QQQ Advice on Reported Model Portfolio Results

Follow his advice to use low cost index funds then rebalance once a year at a minimum as I recommend in my newsletters.

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Bob Brinker Sees 1900s for S&P500

With the S&P500 just 1.4% below its all-time closing high at 1864.85, Bob Brinker remains fully invested.  This summary is an enhanced version of what I got from reader via email:

Bob Brinker continues to be constructive on the Equity markets and increased his estimate for the S&P 500 to trade into the low-to-mid 1900’s range going forward. 

Brinker says the fact the stock market has not experienced a significant correction (10% or more) since the autumn of 2011 cannot be ignored. 

Given the fact that 2014 is a mid-term off-presidential year, Brinker believes’ that the probability of a meaningful correction this year is high. A correction of at least 8% has occurred in every mid-term off-presidential year since 1960. 

Brinker views a correction as a health restoring event for the equity markets.  That means he is not predicting a bear market. 

Brinker is unenthusiastic about adding new money to the stock market at this time.  

Brinker recommends dollar-cost-average purchases to be made on market pullbacks when possible. 

In order to reduce interest rate risk, Bob has replaced all the Bond Funds in his recommended portfolios to lower duration Funds.

It seems Brinker has been weary of this market for a long time. This is what we reported (Feb 24, 2013 Summary) Brinker said in February 2013, over a year ago

Brinker Comment: The stock market indexes are all at or close to their 2013 year-to-date highs and for the most part the highest levels in several years. Those indexes have been strong year-to-date. Having said that, there is a lot of bullish sentiment. A lot of the indicators are showing a lot of bullishness. Usually, at some point, that kind of over-zealous participation is very frequently cause for profit taking. So if you see some profit taking coming into the market, you should not be surprised given the high level of sentiment in a number of indicators.

From a summary of the March 2013 Marketimer posted on the "Bob Brinker Asset Allocation History" we have Brinker also cautious:

"The S&P500 Index has the potential to trade in the mid-1500s range.... The absence of a health restoring correction in 2012 remains a concern"

There you have it.  Brinker has all bases covered.  If the market goes down, he can say he warned it might go down and not to put new money in.  If it keeps going up, as it always does eventually, then he's fully invested and can point to that.

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with "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter"

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