The current cyclical bear market started at the top but was not an "official bear market" by Bob Brinker's definition of a bear market until it closed below 1252.01, the dashed red line on the chart below.
Lets take a look back over the past year or so to see what Bob Brinker has been saying.October 05, 2007: Bob Brinker Bullish and Fully Invested
"Bullish. In his most recent issue, published in early October, editor Bob Brinker wrote: "We expect significant additional stock market progress into next year as investors discount growing corporate earnings in an environment of low inflation and benign interest rates." His model portfolios are fully invested."November 15, 2007: Bob Brinker Still Bullish According to Mark Hulbert
(S&P500 was 1542)
In his article "The best vs. the worst: Best long-term market timers believe we're in a bull market," Mark writes of Bob Brinker:Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early November, editor Bob Brinker writes: "We continued to believe that there is no risk of a cyclical bear market (a decline of 20% or more as measured by the S&P 500 index (S&P500 chart) in the months ahead ... We expect the stock market to set a series of new record highs into next year." His model portfolios are fully invested.
December 19, 2007: Brinker's Long-in-the-Tooth Buying Opportunity
So far, Brinker has been correct that a 20% bear market has not happened. However, those who bought into the stock market last August when he issued his "mid-1400's" buy signal have needed great patience if they are waiting for his July prediction of 1600's range to develop.January 04, 2008: Brinker's 60-day Moving Average Put/Call Ratio Indicator Remains Bullish
In July, 2007 Marketimer, Bob Brinker predicted a "move into the S&P 500 Index 1600's range as we move forward....."
In August, 2007 Bob Brinker said: "We rate the stock market as attractive for purchase on weakness that occurs in the area of the S&P 500 Index mid-1400's. Above that level, we recommend a dollar-cost- average approach."
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Brinker repeated the "mid-1400's" buy signal in September, October, November and December (2007).
In his January Marketimer, Bob Brinker reported:
"The 60-day put/call ratio remains in bullish territory as the new year begins."Brinker remains bullish, does not expect a bear market (as defined as a 20% or more decline in the S&P500) and he looks for new highs to be made in the year ahead.
February 22, 2008: Bob Brinker Likes Low 1300s According to Peter Brimelow
About Bob Brinker, Brimelow wrote:
Brinker said recently: "Marketimer views the establishment of a correction bottom as a process which unfolds over a given period of time. This process involves the initial establishment of a closing S&P 500 Index low, followed by a short rally, followed by a test of the area of the previously established low on reduced trading volume. The initial closing low in the current stock market correction process occurred on Jan. 22, when the S&P 500 Index closed at 1310.50. The market subsequently rallied for eight days, at which point it began the process of testing the area of the Jan. 22 closing low."June 03, 2008: Bob Brinker's June Market Outlook
"In our view, the correction bottoming process has proceeded with a high degree of historical consistency to date. We have witnessed a decided reduction in selling pressure during the testing process, which is essential to a successful outcome. We now rate the stock market attractive for purchase on any weakness that occurs in the current area of the S&P 500 Index low 1,300s, or any minor weakness that occurs below that level."
According to newsletter tracker Mark Hulbert, Bob Brinker remains bullish for June 2008. In "Lion or lamb?" Mark wrote:
- Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early June, editor Bob Brinker wrote that his market timing model "remains in favorable territory as we approach the start of the summer season. We continue to expect stock prices to work higher and to achieve new historic highs in the market indexes." Brinker's model portfolios are fully invested.
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[Kirk Comment: Brinker's model portfolios have been fully invested since March 11, 2003. See Bob Brinker's Asset Allocation History. ]
If you want to read what Brinker says in full, then you have to subscribe to Marketimer. Good luck trying to get any past issues which have these bullish market calls in them.
"The idea that a bell rings to signal when investors should get into or out of the stock market is simply not credible. After nearly fifty years in this business, I do not know of anybody who has done it successfully and consistently. I don't even know anybody who knows anybody who has done it successfully and consistently. Yet market timing appears to be increasingly embraced by mutual fund investors and the professional managers of fund portfolios alike. }Unlike Brinker, I don't try to time the stock market but for a tiny part of my explore portfolio. Also, I offer subscribers of "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Newsletter" any back issue they want for free. I have nothing to hide.
[John C. Bogle in Common Sense on Mutual Funds: , pg 20]
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