Secular Bear Market Definition Bob Brinker

Bob Brinker loves to use catch phrases to help him sell the idea he can time the stock market. Don't let them fool you.

Honeybee reported yesterday in her April 10, 2010, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Summary that Bob Brinker is talking about "cyclical bull markets" again on his radio show. She repored:

* Bob Brinker said: "The Dow Jones Industrial Average closing out the week at 10, 997. That is a new cyclical bull market recovery high for the Dow. The S&P 500 Index also closing the week at a new cyclical bull market recovery closing high of 1194....The total rate of return, including cash dividends, for the S&P 500 Index year-to-date, now stand at 7 1/2%."

and

Item of interest: BOB BRINKER'S SECULAR BEAR MEGATREND IS ON AGAIN.

In June, 2007, Bob Brinker stated that the secular bear megatrend that he said began in Year-2000 had ended the PRIOR year -- in June, 2006!

June, 2007 Marketimer, Brinker said: "In our view, the valuation based secular bear market that was established following the March, 2000 closing high for the S&P 500 index (1527.46) and following the January, 2000 closing high for the DJIA (11723), reached its conclusion on June 13, 2006 at the bottom of the mid-term off-presidential election year correction."

Brinker never mentioned the secular bear megatrend again until this month (And he never told Moneytalk listeners he said it ended):

April 5, 2010, Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "The current secular bear megatrend began during the first quarter of Year 2000, and is now entering its eleventh year."

No doubt, Brinker had to declare the secular bear megatrend back on because even though his timing model missed the worst bear market since the Great Depression and he rode it down fully invested, he is now calling the current market a "cyclical bull market."

Honeybee is right. Bob Brinker originally came up with the "secular bear market" long after the markets peaked in March 2000. He stuck with it until 2007 when the stock markets were making new all time highs then he said it ended the year before! What was absurd is by definition secular bears end when new highs are made.

Now Brinker says the secular bear market has been going all along and doesn't give any reason as to why he was so fooled in 2007 to have reported it was over while recommending a gift horse buying opportunity with the S&P500 in the mid 1400s!!!

Don't be fooled. If Bob Brinker didn't have a clue the markets would collapse just before the biggest bear market since the Great Depression, then what gives you confidence he has a clue what they will do now?