We are getting word that Bob Brinker sent out a "special bulletin" to subscribers of his "Marketimer" newsletter as well as those who don't subscribe.
A subscriber tells us that when they logged in they were told "there is no bulletin."
We got an email last night asking us "Does anyone know what Brinkers 8/9/11 bulletin said?" We assume this means news of the bulletin went out to non-subscribers and/or expired subscribers too.
Why send out a bulletin to paying customers then not offer them some insight into the market after it has fallen drastically since telling your audience at much higher levels that you were not selling?
"Of course, the market is now at 1292, a couple of percent higher than when that call came in at the end of June. So this is what happens. If that individual would have sold out at 1270 at that time, he would be faced now with either sitting it out or re-entering at a higher level." July 31st Advice
We can see why you would advertise a special bulletin to those who did not renew your newsletter. You can hope they will pay again to renew just to see if you advised selling stocks after a huge decline.
Brinker sold AFTER the 1987 Bear Market decline so he has a history of selling near bottoms after big declines. See:
Brinker sold AFTER the 1987 Bear Market decline so he has a history of selling near bottoms after big declines. See:
What we don't understand is why he would risk reminding his current subscribers that he has had nothing to say since bragging about not selling with the S&P500 at 1292 less than two weeks ago? See:
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| S&P500 with April 29, 2011 peak |
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| S&P500, DOW & NASDAQ Since April 29, 2011 peak |
I haven't been a markettimer subscriber for about 2 years. Yesterday I got an email bulletin notice which included my subscriber code and instructions to access it via a live link. When I clicked the link and entered my code and zip per instructions, I was denied access. "Code and email don't match" or words to that effect. I hadn't really expected something for nothing, but the solicitation struck me as weird and tacky. A new low?
ReplyDeleteIf as a subscriber you requested email notifications you may still be on the notification mailing list. If you don't won't these notifications then remove your name from the list.
ReplyDeleteI did not receive the alert, but it is possible that it was a buy signal or a sell signal.
I don't get it. Is Brinker telling people to sell now? Or is this a snafu?
ReplyDeleteI think it is a snafu... probably related to the snafu that had the timing model fully invested for the worst bear market since the Great Depression and still fully invested for this recent decline.
ReplyDeleteI wrote: "A subscriber tells us that when they logged in they were told "there is no bulletin."
That means after they logged in to the bulletin site, they were told there is no bulletin.
To me, that means Brinker hasn't changed anything..... He was bullish the last time he was on the air and he remains a bull.
To the 12:53 PM poster:
Thanks Bob! (Who else would give that reply?) Line #1 may explain why past subscribers got the bulletin and line #2... of course YOU would not get the bulletin unless you subscribe to your own newsletter.
That comment Bob made about the caller who "panicked" when the S&P was at 1270, reminds me of 2008 when Bob arrogently claimed that he knew the market would go much higher (ala his famous "GIFT HORSE" buy signal at S&P 1400), and called the bears "Cassandras", right before the collapse. Well, that caller SHOULD have panicked and sold out, against Bob's advice. Funny how proud he was of that advice when the S&P was 2% higher at 1290+, and wondering how he will respond now that the market has gone straight down about 12% in a week and a half since his comment. I think, like in 2008-2009 he is going to start avoiding conversations about market timing and the stock market for a while.
ReplyDeleteOn 8/10/2011 2:42 PM, Anonymous wrote:
ReplyDelete"That comment Bob made about the caller who "panicked" when the S&P was at 1270, reminds me of 2008 when Bob arrogently claimed that he knew the market would go much higher (ala his famous "GIFT HORSE" buy signal at S&P 1400), and called the bears "Cassandras", right before the collapse. "
Indeed. Lets just hope we're still not waiting for the market to return to the 1290s in three years as we are still waiting for the S&P500 to return to the 1400s where he bashed the Casandras .
Small correction. His "gift horse" was mid 1400s issued when the market was in the 1500s so I see that as 1434 to 1467 where people would have lump summed any new money in at 1467 on the first decline if they wanted to follow his advice.
Also, here is a link to Brinker's May 31, 2008 Casandra Bashing
" Brinker said: “So what we have here basically, is an example of false prophets and it’s sad. And the reason it’s sad is the damage done. Think of the people that are looking today at the market, S&P at 1400 and they’ve been scared out of the market in the first quarter by these bears………It’s just amazing and yet these people are out there, and these people are not happy, I’m sure, to find themselves out of a rising market since March (2008). To find themselves looking for ever lower prices when in fact we’ve had the opposite."
Bob should have learned a lesson from 2008 - that no one can predict future events in the stock market with 100% probability, and therefore, one should not talk with such patronization about others that do not agree with his opinion, as he did with this recent caller. His last few years of bullishness, since the bottom in March 2009 (after his horrific GIFT HORSE call, which we are still 20% away from after 3+ years) seems to have boosted his confidence in his market timing abilities once again (and his cooresponding arrogance).
ReplyDeleteHis model clearly has a flaw in it. It uses interest rates, earnings, monetary policy, and sentiment, but it does NOT factor in risks like the negative effects on our economy from massive sovereign debts, instability in the banking sector, and the endless printing of fiat money around the globe. I hope it doesnt happen, but if Bob gets blindsided by yet another collapse in the stock market while he remains bullish, perhaps propelled by a (IMO, a likely) US dollar collapse, which is not factored in his timing model, his days as a stock market prognosticator are pretty much over. Missing one bear market (in the last case, a 50%+ move down) in a decade is bad, two is unforgivable.
As a former subscriber to his market timer, I finally decided to bail out from his model in 2010 (not out of market but instead out of subscription). It is sad to see this still attracts large followers who are now again trapped in his hopeless timing hole (or 'hold').
ReplyDeleteAfter all these years (20+), I would say the only one that makes sense is myplaniq.com. They use relative strength among uncorrelated assets and then decide allocation that might not be all in or all out. Depending on what assets in the plan you choose, right now, it holds commodities, REITs and emerging market bonds or none stocks if you are only interested in us, foreign stocks and bonds. I have no affiliation with them and they have all historical buy/sell records for a portfolio to browse. See yourself before making any decision.
It appears Bob did release a Special Subscriber Message on Aug 8. Any ideas?
ReplyDeleteWe figured out what may have gone wrong.
ReplyDeleteIt depends on how you access the bulletin what message you got. If your email program allows clickable links and you clicked then you were taken to a place to log in as a subscriber to get a message that didn't say anything new from the last newsletter.... or really since the last all in buy signal in the mid 1400s back in 2007. Brinker has been fully invested since 2003.
Other subscribers who didn't click the link but went to the web site other ways and then clicked "bulletin" then entered their code were told there was no bulletin.
It still appears it was meant to tell former subscribers there was a "special bulletin" that they would have to renew to read.... since being fully invested and told there may be a "buying opportunity in the future" is a total joke given Brinker was already fully invested and was bragging to his radio audience just weeks ago he was buying around 1290.
REAL NEWS for a bulletin would be a change in asset allocation. Given Brinker has been 100% equities since 2003, this would mean a sell... which is what I am sure many paid up $185 to see if Brinker issued a sell signal after the big market decline.
BTW, until we pointed out there was no bulletin... it is possible there really was no bulletin. When we went to bobbrinker.com then clicked "bulletin site" to research this article, we were told there was no bulletin! (Good thing I took a screen shot!) Now when you do this you are told there is a link on the home page to access a special bulletin!
ReplyDelete"Special Subscriber Message is available by clicking on Special Subscriber Message (August 10) at the homepage."
It is quite possible there was no bulletin at first and they only added one after we wrote "Why send out a bulletin to paying customers then not offer them some insight into the market after it has fallen drastically since telling your audience at much higher levels that you were not selling?"
It is comical if it was not so sad. I'm sure many former subscribers paid $185 to see if there was a "sell signal" only to find a rehash of the latest newsletter and talk of a potential buy signal that we consider worthless if you are already fully invested after issuing a "gift horse buying opportunity" in the mid 1400s before the market collapsed back in 2007.
I used to respect Brinker. Now he operates his business more like a late night informercial that sells worthless products such as black hair spray to cure baldness.
The S&P closed at 1140 today, just a few percentage points away from an official bear market. Is Bob going to miss yet another bear market? We are still down more than 20% from his GIFT HORSE buy in 2008 that those who followed his advice our suffering from.
ReplyDelete