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Showing posts with label Terry Savage. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Terry Savage. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 01, 2013

Moneytalk Summary: Bob Brinker's Stock & Bond Advice

Despite the stock market closing Friday withing 2.2% of its record, all time high set on September 19, 2013, Bob Brinker didn't say a word about it during his Sunday, Sept. 29, 2013 show.  One would think he would get a sore arm patting himself on the back for "officially" recommending a fully invested position.  See Bob Brinker's Asset Allocation History
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Instead of discussing how well the stock market has done, Brinker took a few calls on his "income portfolio" where he explained why he was lowering the duration of his bond funds to reduce interest rate risk.   As a reminder, a duration of "8" means you can expect a bond fund to lose 8% if interest rates jump by 1% overnight.

Of course, the lowest duration is ZERO and you get that from FDIC insured CDs and Savings Accounts.  These are what I recommend in my newsletter.  You can find savings accounts that pay as much as 0.90% at this link:
    The majority of Sunday's show was devoted to the government shutdown.  As is his way to not offend any side that might buy a newsletter from him, he didn't offer any solutions while voicing his tremendous displeasure.

    It is too bad Brinker didn't discuss why he has remained fully invested in stocks since March 2003.  It sounds like his listeners are mostly out of the market, if you judge them by the calls Brinker lets on the radio.  For sure, we didn't hear any comments from Bob Brinker about "the Secular Bear Market" he predicted that didn't happen.  Perhaps most of his callers and listeners didn't want to risk Brinker missing the next bear market like he missed the 2008/2009 bear market so they went to his "income portfolio" that has no stock market exposure.  For sure, I'd love to hear Brinker honestly answer a call about this.  For more on the market read:
    For a good discussion of the Government Shutdown, here is what one of his guest hosts, Terry Savage, sent out via email.

     October 1, 2013:  You're likely waking up to headlines that the government is shut down.  Well, not all of the government.

    Essential services will continue.   Our military will still stand guard, social security will still be direct-deposited, and air traffic controllers are not being furloughed.  National parks will be closed and there will no doubt be other inconveniences -- but life will go on.


    This is not the first government shutdown, nor will it be the last.  There were 17 shutdowns from 1976 to 1996 -- totalling 110 days.  (And that doesn't count snow closings!)


    The most memorable shutdown was the three-week closure from mid-December 1995 to early January, 1996 under President Clinton. And that period included a huge East Coast blizzard.  Still the economy did not collapse,and economic growth was not  greatly impacted.


    Crying Wolf!


    Congress is like the little boy who cried wolf!  If a crisis were imminent you would see it in the stock and bond market where fearful global sellers would dump American assets.  You'd see it in soaring gold prices and a huge decline in the value of the dollar.


    But so far, like all of us (except the media) the world senses that the politicians are crying wolf.


    The government can shut down for a few weeks, without calamity.  But you wouldn't know that from this morning's headlines -- all about the intransigence of our political parties.


    Hey, we settle our political disagreements in a far less ugly way than they do in Egypt, or Syria.  Democracy is messy.


    Get Real


    Yes, there is deep disagreement about the role of government, and the overall level of spending.  It has come to a head in the attempt to delay the individual mandate for Obamacare.


    On a logical basis, you would think the President would welcome this excuse for at least a temporary pause to get the systems working.  After all, large businesses and unions already have been granted exemptions to take a delay of game without penalty.


    And on a logical basis, you would think all Americans would support a plan to make sure Congress and the administration were forced to use the same healthcare program as the rest of America -- without subsidies to defray their costs.  If it's good enough for us, why not for them?


    Look, we all know they will work it out.


    A Budget Fight?


    It's not really a budget fight. The word “budget” implies some kind of thoughtful plan to guide future spending. Congress hasn’t passed a real Federal budget in the past four years.  Instead they’ve gotten by with “continuing resolutions” that allow Washington to keep on spending, and over-spending, so they have added at least $1 trillion to the national debt every year for the past four years


    The real issue is the “debt ceiling” – the official limitation on how much the government can borrow.  That limit has been raised time and again to accommodate Congressional overspending.  In fact, the debt ceiling was reached late last spring, but through a complex series of financial maneuvers the Treasury was able to continue to borrow money to fund spending.


     There will be another confrontation later this month, with the threat that if the debt ceiling isn’t raised, the United States will have to default on its debt, and be unable to borrow more money to keep the government going.  That too, is likely to be dealt with at the last minute.


    By then we will be totally bored with the drama.


    But too much delay in dealing with our debt could impact the global financial system, as it loses faith in the dollar and causes interest rates to soar.


    When confidence in the dollar is lost, the centerpiece of the world’s financial system will crumble – and it won’t be pretty for America when no one wants to give us full value for our money, when no one wants to lend us money and take promises of repayment in dollars.  Then spending cuts will be forced on us.  Either that or we will start “printing” the money we need – further destroying the value of the dollar.


    Think I’m just crying wolf?  Remember, eventually the real wolf did come.  And that’s The Savage Truth!


    More about Terry Savage:
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    Wednesday, January 02, 2013

    Terry Savage on "Alice in Wonderland" Deficit Deal

    This is a great note from Terry Savage about today's deal to avoid the "fiscal cliff."   Terry is my all-time favorite guest host for Moneytalk with Bob Brinker.  I wish the producers would consider making her a regular or even replacing Bob Brinker with Terry since Brinker avoids talking about the markets or giving direct answers to questions unless he can make himself look good with his answers.  Unlike Brinker, Terry is a straight shooter and isn't afraid to let you know her opinion.

    Happy New Year and Good Riddance to a Bad Congress!

    The actions of Congress over the past two years, and especially the past two weeks should be an embarassment to all Americans, no matter what political party.


    The last-minute "deal" was no deal at all -- when it comes to preserving America's future. And the process destroyed respect for our country around the world. We now look much like the governments of Greece and Italy and Spain -- taking laughable baby steps toward the resolution of a huge and overwhelming debt problem.


    Here's a link to my comments on CNN yesterday.

    Kirk Comment: I embedded her CNN interview about the so called "deficit deal" that is a sad joke for anyone who understands the real issues. 



    I called it an "Alice in Wonderland" moment -- the "Mad Hatter's Tea Party." This is what we have come to -- and historians will look back on this moment with dismay.

    The overwhelming issue is that the deal does absolutely NOTHING to change our annual budget deficits, which keep creating a larger national debt. And the term "budget deficit" is more than an oxymoron -- because while we have had trillion dollar deficits for each of the past three years, we have not even had a Federal budget!

    The Congressional Budget Office just announced that this "deal" will actually add $4 Trillion to our national debt over the next 10 years!

    And now that we have had so much ado about nothing, the new Congress will have to start out by dealing with the debt ceiling. That's a much more significant fight because it will call into question our legal ability to pay our bills and refinance our debt.

    Will the next Congress be any more sensible?

    Markets React

    Don't be fooled by the reaction of global markets and rising stock prices. Markets think short term - -and in the short term the entire world is glad the United States didn't destroy its economy with huge tax increases and spending cuts. After all, if America doesn't keep producing and buying, the rest of the world is in deep trouble. So of course the global markets are cheering.

    But keep your eye on gold, which though down recently from its highs for last year, responded to the "deal" by jumping nearly $20 per ounce to $1690, while the dollar fell on global markets. Our lack of real fiscal discipline means that big bets are being placed against the future value of the dollar -- even if it is the "least worst" place to hold assets globally.

    Kirk Comment:  Gold's ETF is GLD:  GLD Charts and Quote

    What can and should you do? Get back to work, and keep on investing. And speak up! This kind of Congressional confrontation is only possible because so many in Congress find themselves in "safe" seats, because of redistricting. Maybe if they understand they are vulnerable to our votes, they will get something done for America in the next Congress and in the New Year. And that's The Savage Truth.

    More about Terry Savage:
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