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Thursday, June 28, 2012

REITS and Preferred Stocks - Brinker's Opinion

Moneytalk with Bob Brinker Commentary for June 24, 2012 Radio Show
The following commentary is from my "Retirement Advisor" writing partner,  David Korn. 

REITS

Caller:   This caller is trying to come up with a way to increase the returns in his portfolio against a backdrop of a market that has low interest rates and incredibly low yields on Treasuries.  What do you think of investing 10-20% of his portfolio in real estate investment trusts?  Bob said if you are going with a real estate investment trust, you really need to do your homework.  REITs have been very volatile and all over the place.  Bob said he would be inclined to use a diversified format, such as the one offered by Vanguard.  That would come with low expenses which would be a bonus.  Bob said he would prefer a fund over an individual REIT to get the diversification.  Later on in the broadcast, Bob mentioned that Vanguard also offers the REIT Index ETF which trades under the ticker VNQ.

EC: The Vanguard REIT Index Fund Investor Shares (VGSIX) has an expense ratio of just 0.24% -- which is one of the lowest ones around.  Learn more about it at this url:  http://tinyurl.com/yb7288l

Kirk Comment: I have had this REIT fund in my newsletter (Kirk's Two Investment Letters), for a decade.  I also recommend its ETF alternative (See page 33 of recent issues.)  I am VERY pleased with the performance of both:

As of 03/31/2012 from Vanguard




VGSIX
1 Year 3 Year 5Yr 10 Year Since Inception
05/13/96
REIT Index Fund Inv 12.76% 43.25% 0.31% 10.45% 10.86%

Long Term Results that Speak for Themselves
Since 9/30/98 inception, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 390%
vs. the S&P500 UP only 51% vs. NASDAQ UP only 57% (All through 12/31/11
(More Info, Testimonials & Portfolio Returns)
Q1 2012 Update:  Up 11.3% YTD  as of 3/31/12
(remember this 2012 performance is with 1/3 in fixed income!)
Subscribe to my service NOW and get the June 2012 Issue for FREE!   

PREFERREDS
Caller:  This caller also wants to increase his portfolio returns and has heard a lot of good things about preferred stocks as way to generate higher returns.  Bob said he would be very careful before investing in these kinds of securities.  Over the last few years, a lot of money was lost in preferred stock.  Look at Freddie Mac which came out with preferred stock that disappointed investors.  Bob wouldn’t even give the caller a recommendation in this area.

EC:  Everyone knows what common stock is - that's the stock that you see on CNBC every day -- the stock that investors are buying and selling every day on the major exchanges.  Well, some companies also offer "preferred stock" which is simply another class of ownership in a corporation.  Preferred stock generally grants preferred stockholders rights that common stock holders do not have, hence the name "preferred stock."  For example, owners of preferred stock receive payment of dividends before the owners of common stock and have preference over common stock holders if the company declares bankruptcy.  Some preferred stocks are "callable" which means that the company could force the owner of the preferred stock to sell it back to the company for either cash or common stock.  The price and conditions are usually set up when the stock is issued.  For practical purposes, many investors own preferred stock because they are seeking current income (via the dividend) and preferred stocks typically pay dividends quarterly and offer higher yields relative to long-term Treasury bonds.  Bob has never been a fan of preferred stock and neither have his guests like Jeremy Siegel or Larry Swedroe.

Vanguard Funds YTD Returns as of 06/26/2012
NameSymbolPrice as of 06/26/2012 YTD as of
06/26/2012
PriceYield
GNMA Fund Investor Shares VFIIX$11.04 3.00%
1.40%
Total Bond Mkt Index Inv VBMFX$11.10 1.88%
2.35%
Prime Money Mkt Fund VMMXX$1.000.04%
0.02%
Inflation-Protect Sec Inv VIPSX$14.65 –0.71%
4.09%
REIT Index Fund Inv VGSIX$20.89 note
10.21%
Total Stock Mkt Idx Inv VTSMX$32.80 2.04%
5.75%

The above commentary is courtesy of my writing partner, David Korn
David Korn's Stock Market Commentary, Interpretation of Moneytalk (Bob Brinker Host), Financial Education, Helpful Links, Guest Editorials, and Special Alert E-Mail Service.  Copyright David Korn, L.L.C. 2012
More from David Korn:
If you would like a free sample of David's complete "Brinker related newsletter" and his "Retirement Advisor" newsletter, then click this link to send an email request and please tell us a bit about yourself too.

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Stock Market and Interest Rates

Moneytalk with Bob Brinker Commentary for June 24, 2012 Radio Show
The following commentary is from my "Retirement Advisor" writing partner,  David Korn. 

STOCK MARKET

Brinker Comment:  The S&P 500 (charts) closed the week at 1,335 in a volatile week of trading.  With 25 weeks into the year, we have a total return of 7.1%.  That’s not too shabby in a zero interest rate world.  During the broadcast, a caller asked if he should lump sum into the stock market, or dollar cost average.  Bob said at this point he would be in a dollar cost average position with new money geared toward the stock market.  Bob said he would put it in at a pace that is comfortable with you.  As a general rule, Bob said he prefers not to chase the market when it is rising, and instead attempt to identify buy points during market weakness like the ones that occurred last fall.

EC:  There has been no change in Bob’s bullish outlook and he is on record of late projecting the S&P 500 to reach into the 1500s over the next year. 





Kirk Comment:   Bob Brinker remains bullish and as of his June Marketimer continues "fully invested" and still believes "the S&P500 Index will reach our target range in the upper-1400s to lower-1500s withing the next 12 months."  Bob Brinker has attended what he calls "the church of buy and hold" since March 2003 and thus was fully invested for the last two bear markets.  I think it is clear these days he promotes the very aggressive Marketimer newsletter when stocks are up and then promotes the more conservative "fixed income advisor" newsletter when the market is down.   For more, read: 

INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION

Brinker Comment:  
Rates remain at or near record lows across the board in the various maturities.  The 3-month Treasury Bill is laughable with a yield of just 8 basis points.  The 6-month Treasury is yielding just 14 basis points.   The 1-year Treasury Note is yielding just 17 basis points.   The 2-year Treasury Note is yielding 0.30%.  The 5-year Note is yielding 0.75%.  The 10-year Note is yielding 1.67% and the 30-year Bond is yielding 2.75%.  The problem with these rates is they create an attitude in Washington that the money is free and there is a level of complacency that the money can be borrowed at no cost and as a result we are headed for $16 trillion in national debt.  If and when the date comes when interest rates normalize, the interest payments on the national debt will be enormous.

EC:  The Treasury is slated to sell another $35 billion in two-year notes on Tuesday; $35 billion in five-year notes on Wednesday and $29 billion in seven-year notes on Thursday.

Brinker Comment:
For inflation indexed securities, five year maturities have a negative base rate of 1.0%.  So it costs you (the buyer) 1% a year to own one of these while you hope that you will get something back on the inflation side.  Right now, the CPI is 1.7% year-over-year, so there is not much inflation.  The 10-year TIPS have a negative yield of 0.5%.  So you have the same deal there where you sign on for a negative return on the base rate with the hope of making it up on the inflation rate.

EC:  See the article, “Treasuries Gain; TIPS Sell at Record Low Yield” at this url: http://tinyurl.com/76nzgxo


Kirk Comment:  More useful links:
Kirk Comment: In my newsletters (Kirk's Two Investment Letters), I have VIPSX in the more conservative portfolios and VGSIX in the more aggressive portfolios.  I am VERY pleased with the performance of both:


Vanguard Funds YTD Returns as of 06/26/2012
NameSymbolPrice as of 06/26/2012 YTD as of
06/26/2012
PriceYield
GNMA Fund Investor Shares VFIIX$11.04 3.00%
1.40%
Total Bond Mkt Index Inv VBMFX$11.10 1.88%
2.35%
Prime Money Mkt Fund VMMXX$1.000.04%
0.02%
Inflation-Protect Sec Inv VIPSX$14.65 –0.71%
4.09%
REIT Index Fund Inv VGSIX$20.89 note
10.21%
Total Stock Mkt Idx Inv VTSMX$32.80 2.04%
5.75%

Long Term Results that Speak for Themselves
Since 9/30/98 inception, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 390%
vs. the S&P500 UP only 51% vs. NASDAQ UP only 57% (All through 12/31/11
(More Info, Testimonials & Portfolio Returns)
Q1 2012 Update:  Up 11.3% YTD  as of 3/31/12
(remember this 2012 performance is with 1/3 in fixed income!)
Subscribe to my service NOW and get the June 2012 Issue for FREE!   

Brinker Comment:  10-year quality municipals are yielding 1.9%.  Even in the highest tax bracket, that results in just a 3% after-tax return.

EC:  Found an article that suggests it might be time to move from a CD Ladder to Municipal Bonds at this url: http://tinyurl.com/86cyoay
The above commentary is courtesy of my writing partner, David Korn
David Korn's Stock Market Commentary, Interpretation of Moneytalk (Bob Brinker Host), Financial Education, Helpful Links, Guest Editorials, and Special Alert E-Mail Service.  Copyright David Korn, L.L.C. 2012
More from David Korn:
If you would like a free sample of David's complete "Brinker related newsletter" and his "Retirement Advisor" newsletter, then click this link to send an email request and please tell us a bit about yourself too.

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