Two of the Worst Stock Market Calls in History

Humor is the only medicine for those who took Bob Brinker's advice to be 100% in equities at the start of 2008 and to hold those 100% positions all the way down. (Advice for Model portfolios #1 and #2. Model portfolio #3 was about 66% in equities at the top.)

"Tom" posted this bit of humor on "Honey's Bob Brinker Beehive Buzz" in the comment section for her article titled "S&P 500 Index Below Brinker's March, 2003 Buy Signal."

2 very bad market calls in history:

"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."
Irving Fisher, October 1929

"We continue to believe that a bear market (S&P Index decline in excess of 20%) is not on the radar screen at this time."
Bob Brinker, December 2007

Click to see full size chart

Tom had some good ones, but these are pretty good also:

June 2007 Marketimer:

”In our view, the valuation based secular bear market that was established following the March, 2000 closing high for the S&P500 index (1527.46) and following the January, 2000 closing high for the DJIA (11723), reached its conclusion on June 13, 2006 at the bottom of the mid-term off-presidential election year correction.”

December 5, 2007 Marketimer (S&P 1481) Bob Brinker wrote:

“The short-term correction that began in October and continued into November has served as a health-restoring pullback and has paved the way for new record highs in the S&P500 index.”

and

“Marketimer subscribers have been able to add to positions on this short-term correction based on our recommendation to view the stock market as attractive for purchase on any weakness into the mid-1400’s range”

and

"We continue to believe that a bear market is not on the radar screen at this time. We expect the bull market to continue at least well into 2008, and look for significant stock market gains."

Finally, he wrote

“We continue to rate the market as attractive for purchase in the mid-1400’s… Any additional weakness below this range is regarded as a gift horse buying opportunity.”

Click to see full size chart

Riddle: What do you call a "market timer" who rides a 45% or more bear market down while fully invested and giving "gift horse buy signals" after the first decline under 10% near the top?

Please post your answers in our comment section.

4% to 5% CDs are looking pretty smart these days.

• 4% 1YR CD at Wachovia Bank
  
• 5% 3 to 7 Yr CDs at Pentagon Federal Credit Union

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