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Sunday, May 14, 2017

Bob BrinkerMarket Outlook, Advice for New Money & More

Bob Brinker Market Update for May 2017.  In this issue I discuss:
  • Bob Brinker's May 2017 Market Outlook.
  • Marketimer Allocations
  • Is Brinker more or less bullish than in past years at this time?
  • Series I-Bonds
  • Advice for new money.
  • GNMAs
  • Timer Digest Update
  • Link to Listen Live (1-4PM PST, 4-7PM EST)
Bob Brinker's May 2017 Market Outlook.  In his May 2017 Marketimer newsletter, 
  • As of May 3, 2017 with the S&P500 at $2,384.20, Bob Brinker is bullish and fully invested.
  • He expects the S&P500 to earn $130 in 2017 and says it can support a P/E ratio of 17 to 18 times that.
  • Bob says the market can "trade well into the S&P 500 Index 2400s range going forward."
  • We're nearly there already given the market has traded into the 2400s already this month!
  • Bob also says "tax reform legislation" going forward could lead to "a healthy increase in operating earnings in 2018."  This is pretty much what every talking head on CNBC from both political parties says would happen if companies get to keep more of the money they earn.
Marketimer Allocations:
  • Model Portfolio's one and two are 100% in stock funds with 80% in the US and 20% as the listed percentage in an "All-World" index fund.  
  • The actual percentages in his portfolios vary from what is listed since he doesn't rebalance or update the percentages often.   
  • It seems odd he offers zero guidance for using the percentage he recommends or the actual percentage in the portfolios he shows and reports measured performance for.  For example, he recommends 30% in VTSMX for P3, but the actual percentage is 33.5%, over 10% more than he recommends!
  • Model Portfolio three is listed as 50% in stocks but since he doesn't rebalance often, he has quite a bit more in stocks than fixed income.  Of the stocks, he has about 20% of that in the same "All-World" index fund.  (so 10% "All-World" and 40% US)
  • His "Active/Passive Portfolio" is 100% in stocks with the same 80:20 balance between US and foreign
  • His "Income Portfolio" is 100% out of stocks with money spread between three managed funds with duration between 1.25 to 1.52 years and yield between 1.95% and 4.62%
May 13, 2017 Market Update - Summary

  • The four major US markets I follow are up between 1.9% and 13.7% YTD.
  • The S&P500 and Nasdaq markets set new record closing highs this week.
  • The 2400 level continues to be strong resistance for the S&P500 while open gaps are cause for concern.
  • The New Rates for New and Old I-Bonds are out.
  • My Explore Portfolio continues to do well in 2017 after a great 2016.  It finished the week at a new record high!
  • Full Article: Markets Near Record Highs, Open Gaps & 2400 Resistance Level

I plan to add to and finish this article over the next few days so come back and look for more.

Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter:
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Thursday, March 16, 2017

Timer Digest Update - Bob Brinker's Marketimer

Marketimer Update:  As of the latest (March 2017) Marketimer newsletter, Bob Brinker remains bullish and fully invested with his model portfolios one and two 100% in stocks.

Annual Timer Digest (1/31/17 Issue) Update:  Bob Brinker hasn't had a buy or sell signal in 14 years (since March of 2003) so he's fallen off the radar of the frequent updates of Timer Digest for one, two and three year market timing but Brinker still scores well for longer periods:

For Long Term Stock Market Timing:

  • 2 Yrs: 12/31/14 to 12/30/16: Bob Brinker's "Marketimer" wasn't listed while "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter" tied for 4th place.
  • 3 Yrs: 12/31/13 to 12/30/16: Bob Brinker's "Marketimer" wasn't listed while "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter" tied for 4th place.
  • 5 Yrs: 12/30/11 to 12/30/16: Bob Brinker's "Marketimer" and "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter" tied for 2nd place.
  • 10 Yrs: 12/29/06 to 12/30/16: Bob Brinker's "Marketimer" was in 6th place while "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter" wasn't followed.  (Timer Digest started following me in 2010)

For Short-Term (1-year) Stock Market Timing:

  • 1-Yr. 01/27/16 to 01/27/2017: Bob Brinker's "Marketimer" wasn't listed while "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter" tied for 2nd place.

For 1-Year Bond Market Timing:

  • 1-Year 01/27/16 to 01/27/2017:  Neither Bob Brinker's "Marketimer" or "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter" were listed on the "Top Five Bond Timers" list (Timer Digest concentrates on stock market timing) but we both won "Timer of the Year" in past years:

Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter:
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