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Saturday, March 29, 2008
The 3-month treasury bill currently pays 1.37%, the 5-yr treasury note pays 2.51%, the 10-year treasury bond pays 3.44% and the 30-year T-Bond pays 4.32%.
CDs are also paying better rates than iBonds which currently pay 4.28% (I-Bond Details)
Below are some more rates and terms.
3.75% at Corus Bank
4.15% at Indymac Bank & 4.05% @ Countrywide Bank
4.00% at GMAC Bank & 3.97% @ Ascencia
4.30% at Capital One Bank & 4.25% @ PenFed CU
7 and 10 years
5.00% at Capital One Bank
Be careful when you go to your bank and ask for their best rate. They will often use that as an excuse to sell you an annuity that sounds good on the surface, but is far more profitable for them due to the higher fees.
Make sure you read the Article: Beware of Annuities
Saturday, March 22, 2008
According to Peter Brimelow ( Bob Brinker's Low 1300s Buying Opportunity) Bob Brinker rates the market as a buy here in the low 1300s. Brimelow wrote:
- Brinker said recently: "In our view, ..... . We now rate the stock market attractive for purchase on any weakness that occurs in the current area of the S&P 500 Index low 1,300s, or any minor weakness that occurs below that level."
- "The 60-day put/call ratio remains in bullish territory as the new year begins."
Bob Brinker's S&P500 Buy Levels Charted:
Honey's Bob Brinker Beehive Buzz reported:
- In July, 2007 Marketimer, Bob Brinker predicted a "move into the S&P 500 Index 1600's range as we move forward....."
Kirk Comment: Most of us who know nobody has ever timed the market successfully over the long term HOPE 1256,98 was just a "detour" on the road to 1600s.
In August, 2007 Bob Brinker said: "We rate the stock market as attractive for purchase on weakness that occurs in the area of the S&P 500 Index mid-1400's. Above that level, we recommend a dollar-cost- average approach."
Brinker repeated the "mid-1400's" buy signal in September, October, November and December.
- Tuesday, March 04, 2008:
Bob Brinker's Low 1300s Buying Opportunity
- Monday, January 21, 2008
Markets Plunge. Bob Brinker Says "Remain Fully Invested"
- Friday, January 04, 2008
Brinker's 60-day Moving Average Put/Call Ratio Indicator Remains Bullish
- Monday, December 24, 2007:
Bob Brinker's Mid 1400's Buying Opportunity
Year to date, the S&P500, DJIA and NASDAQ Composite are down 15.6%, 13.4% and 21.1% respectively from their all time highs made in late 2007.
On an intraday basis, the S&P500 and the NASDAQ Composite have been down as much as 20.2% and 24.7% respectively while the DJIA has "only" been down 19.4%, just shy of the 20% decline required for an "official" bear market definition some use.
The yield curve is very healty for banks with the 30 year T-bond paying 4.17% and the 3-month T-bill only paying 0.61%, a spread of 3.56%.This sort of a spread usually signals a strong stock market ahead just as the inverted yield curve in late 2006 and early 2007 correctly predicted the recession or near recession we are in now.
From 1/1/1999 through 03/22/08:
- Kirk's 80:20 Aggressive Core Portfolio is up 62.6%
Kirk's 50:50 Conservative Core Portfolio is up 67.3%
Kirk's 70:30 Explore Portfolio is up 175.7%
80% Core Aggressive plus 20% Explore is up 85.3%
90% Core Conservative plus 10% Explore is up 78.2%
100% Total Stock Market (VTSMX) is up 35.6%
Since October 15, 2000 when Bob Recommended QQQQ to his investors for up to half their cash reserves, my newsletter "explore portfolio" is up 41.7% while Brinker's QQQQ is down 46.4%!!!
You can see why I recommended and continue to recommend my Explore Portfolio over Bob's QQQQ.
If you want to know what I have been buying in this period of weakness with my profit taking dollars from selling when the market was higher, Subscribe to Kirk's Investment Newsletter TODAY and get the March 2008 issue FOR FREE!
More info at:
- Mortgage Rates
- Libor Rates
- Home Equity Loan Rates
- Market Sentiment Indicators
- Major World Market Graphs
Sunday, March 16, 2008
- NY Times:
Bear Stearns Racing Toward Selling Itself to JPMorgan
Bear Stearns was racing Sunday afternoon to sell itself to JPMorgan Chase for more than $2 billion, according to people involved in the talks. Meanwhile, Bear Stearns, whose solvency is in question, was also making preparations to file for bankruptcy protection as a backup plan should a deal not be reached, these people said.
According to Mr. Trone’s analysis, Bear Stearns’s best-case scenario would be to sell for $60 a share, a value based on a few key assumptions: clients stop pulling their business from Bear, the units produce half their normal revenue, and the troubled securities are reduced in value by a third.
- Wall Street Journal:
Bear Stearns Closes in on Deal To Sell Itself to J.P. Morgan
"Bear Stearns Cos. was closing in on a deal Sunday afternoon to sell itself to J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., as worries deepened that the financial crisis of confidence could spread if Bear failed to find a buyer by Monday morning.
People familiar with the discussions said all sides were pushing hard to complete an agreement before financial markets in Asia open for Monday trading. "None of these things is done until they're done," Treasury Department spokeswoman Michele Davis said Sunday afternoon. "But I think everyone's expectation is sometime in the early evening hopefully" the deal will be done.
Also read Sunday, March 16, 2008: "The Yield Curve Spread as a Market Predictor"
Thursday, March 13, 2008
From Bob Brinker According to Mark Hulbert by Honeybee:
- January 4, 2008 Marketimer, Page 3; Paragraph 1; Brinker said: "In summary, the Marketimer stock market timing model indicates that conditions are favorable for the market as we enter 2008" .......we continue to rate the market attractive for purchase on any weakness into the S&P 500 Index mid-1400's range."
February 4, 2008 Marketimer, Page 3; Brinker said: "We recommend a dollar-cost-average approach for new stock market investing at this time. There are no changes to our model portfolios." (Honeybee EC: model portfolios 100% invested.)
March 4, 2008 Marketimer, Page 3; Paragraph 5; Brinker said: "We rate the stock market attractive for purchase on any weakness that occurs in the area of the S&P 500 Index low 1300's, or any minor weakness that occurs below that level."
Every bull market starts with a follow-through day. But not every follow-through day triggers a new bull market.
Definition of Rally Follow-Through Day
- Many pundits on TV are saying we failed to have a follow-through day today because the markets went down. They are wrong according to Investors Business Daily or IBD. IBD says we have to wait for the window to open for a follow-through day.
- For a follow-through to occur, you want it to land between Day 4 and Day 7 of the attempted rally. On any one of those days, you're looking for one or more of the major indexes -- the Nasdaq, S&P 500 or Dow -- to rise 1.7% or more in higher volume than the previous day.
The article shows charts and gives more information on what to look for in a follow-through day.
TEFQX: This is Bob Brinker's Business-to-business (B2B) internet fund recommendation in Feb 2000 Marketimer that he continues to have on HOLD.
Monday, March 10, 2008
Dan Ariely is the Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Behavioral Economics at MIT's Sloan School of Management. His 304 page book "Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions" (Hardcover) was released on February 19th by HarperCollins.
Review From Publishers Weekly:
Irrational behavior is a part of human nature, but as MIT professor Ariely has discovered in 20 years of researching behavioral economics, people tend to behave irrationally in a predictable fashion. Drawing on psychology and economics, behavioral economics can show us why cautious people make poor decisions about sex when aroused, why patients get greater relief from a more expensive drug over its cheaper counterpart and why honest people may steal office supplies or communal food, but not money. According to Ariely, our understanding of economics, now based on the assumption of a rational subject, should, in fact, be based on our systematic, unsurprising irrationality. Ariely argues that greater understanding of previously ignored or misunderstood forces (emotions, relativity and social norms) that influence our economic behavior brings a variety of opportunities for reexamining individual motivation and consumer choice, as well as economic and educational policy. Ariely's intelligent, exuberant style and thought-provoking arguments make for a fascinating, eye-opening read.From USA Today:
"Surprisingly entertaining. . . . Easy to read. . . . Ariely’s book makes economics and the strange happenings of the human mind fun."You can purchase the book at this link at the current sale price of only $14.27.
Thursday, March 06, 2008
Click the charts courtesy of stockcharts.com to see them in full size.
Intraday Charts (Candlestick Chart)
Closing Basis (Dots)
Only time will tell now if this is a good indicator.
Correction Statistics for 03/06/08
S&P 500 Charts (Using Intraday prices):
Last Market High 10/11/08 at 1,576.09
Last Market low 01/23/08 at 1,270.05
Current S&P500 Price 1,304.34
Decline in Pts 271.75
Decline in % 17.2%
Max Decline 19.4%
This means the correction from intraday high to intraday low is 19.4% and we are currently 17.2% off the peak.
The decline from the high to the low on a closing basis is 16.7%
More DJIA Charts (Using Intraday prices):
Last Market High 10/11/08 at 14,279.96
Last Market Low 01/22/08 at 11,508.74
Current DJIA Price 12,040.39
Decline in Pts 2239.57
Decline in % 15.7%
Max Decline 19.4%
This means the correction from high to low has been 19.4% and we are currently 15.7% off the peak.
The decline off the high on a closing basis has been 18.7%
More NASDAQ Charts (Using Intraday prices):
Last Market High 10/31/07 at 2,861.51
Last Market Low 01/23/08 at 2,202.54
Current NASDAQ Price 2,220.50
Decline in Pts 641.01
Decline in % 22.4%
Max Decline 23.0%
This means the correction from high to low has been 23.0% and we are currently 22.4% off the peak.
The decline off the high on a closing basis has been 22.3%
Tuesday, March 04, 2008
- On February 21, Peter Brimelow wrote of Bob Brinker's "Buying Opportunity" in the S&P500 mid 1300s. [ See "Bob Brinker Likes Low 1300s According to Peter Brimelow"]. All conditions are being met so far today. Unless we get a sudden surge of volume in the last hour to take us from under 4B to over 6B shares, which is not probable, we should have a test of the January 22nd low.
- Brinker said recently: "Marketimer views the establishment of a correction bottom as a process which unfolds over a given period of time. This process involves the initial establishment of a closing S&P 500 Index low, followed by a short rally, followed by a test of the area of the previously established low on reduced trading volume. The initial closing low in the current stock market correction process occurred on Jan. 22, when the S&P 500 Index closed at 1310.50. The market subsequently rallied for eight days, at which point it began the process of testing the area of the Jan. 22 closing low."
"In our view, the correction bottoming process has proceeded with a high degree of historical consistency to date. We have witnessed a decided reduction in selling pressure during the testing process, which is essential to a successful outcome. We now rate the stock market attractive for purchase on any weakness that occurs in the current area of the S&P 500 Index low 1,300s, or any minor weakness that occurs below that level."
Market timer's summary: "As has been the case with every correction since August of 2007, several stock market pundits are claiming that a bear market is underway. We do not believe this is the case. We expect the S&P 500 Index to work its way into record new high ground by late this year or in 2009."
- Well, it looks like today we have a test of the January 22 low with lower volume.
Click image courtesy of stockcharts.com to see it full sized
Did the "Bottom Bell" ring at your house? Did you grit your teeth and buy through your fear today? I bought stock today.
It should be noted that with the S&P500 at 1411, Bob Brinker sent out a bulletin to his subscribers on August 16, 2007 that said:
"Any further testing of the area of the correction lows, which we expect to be close to the current S&P 500 Index level (1411), is regarded as an additional buying opportunity for subscribers looking to add to stock market holdings."
"Marketimer expects the S&P 500 Index to register new historic record highs as we move forward into next year."
Disclaimer: I own SPY (the Exchange Traded Fund for the S&P500) in my IRA. Also, I did some buying of an "explore stock" from my newsletter "Explore portfolio" today with money from taknig profits when the market was higher.
After Market Close Update (1:20PM PST)
You can see from the chart the market probed the January 22 closing lows on much lower volume. Even more exciting, it finished the day with a very bullish "Dragon Fly doji"
Dragon Fly and Gravestone Doji
Dragon fly doji form when the open, high and close are equal and the low creates a long lower shadow. The resulting candlestick looks like a "T" with a long lower shadow and no upper shadow. Dragon fly doji indicate that sellers dominated trading and drove prices lower during the session. By the end of the session, buyers resurfaced and pushed prices back to the opening level and the session high.
The reversal implications of a dragon fly doji depend on previous price action and future confirmation. The long lower shadow provides evidence of buying pressure, but the low indicates that plenty of sellers still loom. After a long downtrend, long black candlestick, or at support, a dragon fly doji could signal a potential bullish reversal or bottom. After a long uptrend, long white candlestick or at resistance, the long lower shadow could foreshadow a potential bearish reversal or top. Bearish or bullish confirmation is required for both situations.
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Sunday, March 02, 2008
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