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Friday, October 26, 2018

Stock Market Update After Major Sell-off - Buying & Selling Opportunities

What a month for the bears!  All indexes but the Nasdaq are down for the year.

Hopefully you took some cash out of the markets near the highs to use to buy near the lows.


Keep checking back as I add sentiment charts over the weekend.

Here is a look at the markets on a closing basis.  All are down between 8.0% and 14.8% from their peak values!
Markets at a Glance courtesy of WSJ

Here are the markets showing intraday values.  With high speed computer trading, I believe intraday values are far more important than closing values.  One reason is you can have a major reversal during a day when markets hit resistance points like their 50 and 200 day moving averages or round numbers like $25 or "down 20% from a peak."
 

Hopefully you took some profits when the markets were up so you can take advantage now that they are much lower and the level of fear is intense!


This "Fear and Greed vs. the S&P 500 Sentiment Chart" shows now is a good time to be putting some cash back to work.

This are some of the "sell alerts" I sent my newsletter subscribers near the top.

This is one of my recent "buy alerts" I sent my newsletter subscribers this week.

As Bob Brinker used to say 20 years ago in his younger days "Intel is a great trading stock."

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Keep checking back as I add more charts over the weekend.
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Sunday, September 30, 2018

Moneytalk to End - Last Moneytalk Broadcast Today

It looks like Bob Brinker's Moneytalk radio show is finished.



I got this Google Alert on Friday:


"ILoveYoga" reported on www.early-retirement.org that today was the last podcast for his "Moneytalk on Demand" podcast service. 

That is not surprising.   Few listen to the FREE Moneytalk podcasts:

What a change from 20 years ago!  

I hosted a "Bob Brinker Discussion Forum" back when I was trying to do at Suite101 what Facebook became.  At the peak of Brinker's popularity, I believe I was getting over 20,000 hits a day to discuss Bob Brinker's recommendation to buy QQQ at the top of the internet bubble.  

Now not 500 will listen to a free podcast in the archive!  


 


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 September 2018 
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This link to free podcasts Free Bob Brinker Podcasts shows that only 366 people have listened to any of his 9/23/18 Moneytalk podcast, even after I sent it to several thousand on my Brinker Fan Club mailing list.  I was going to send it to the other half  of my email list this week but there was so little interest that I may not get to it.
and more recently

10/1/18 Update:  From Radio-online.com
As such, I changed the title from " Moneytalk to End - Last Moneytalk On Demand" to "Moneytalk to End - Last Moneytalk Broadcast Today."

Wednesday, May 23, 2018

Bob Brinker Market Advice & Marketimer Special Bulletin

This article gives a short update on the stock market followed by an update of Bob Brinker's May investment advice.

Email Alerts for New Articles:  Click "Follow" on the right hand side of this blog and it  (Google Blogger) should send you a FREE alert via email when I publish a new article here.  I am pretty sure it does not send email alerts when I make updates to the articles so I will try to write "check back" if I plan to add to the article.  

Market Update:  The four major US stock indexes I track are all in the green year-to-date (YTD) with the Nasdaq up 7.6% and the Dow only up 0.7%.

This year the market as measured by the S&P 500 had its fourth largest correction of 12% since the secular bull market began in March of 2009.  It would be very bullish if the S&P 500 corrects down to the falling upper dashed green support line then quickly reverses.   

Likewise, it would be very bearish for it to drop below the lower dashed green support line where filling the gap at 20% off the record high would be highly probable. 





Bob Brinker remains firmly in the Bull Camp:
  • Bob Brinker did not issue a "Special Bulletin" to take profits before that correction nor did he issue a bulletin to buy when the market was down 12%.
  • Since March 2003, Bob Brinker has had his portfolios one and two 100% in equity mutual funds.  See Bob Brinker's Asset Allocation History.
  • Brinker continues to favor dollar cost averaging new money into the market "especially during periods of weakness" which he has not defined.
  • Brinker says if a "Marketimer buy signal develops" between his monthly newsletters, then he will "post a Special Subscriber Message for access" at his website.   How old fashioned is that?  I send email alerts the same day, usually within hours when I buy or sell something in my portfolio.  Below my newsletter ad is an example.
  • Reading between the lines, the fact Brinker only talks about a special message for a "Buy Signal" between monthly newsletters is a clear indication he's firmly in the Bull camp.


Twenty years ago the market was down a similar 10% and Brinker talked extensively about it on his show and in the newsletter.  He even issued a special buy signal just before it fell another 10% to make an official intraday bear market correction.  
Many of my online friends who follow the markets and especially Brinker lost faith in how he handled this miss. That is he didn't discuss why he was wrong or what he learned. 
My guess is the markets look similar today... they've have a huge run up but are not over valued like they were in 2000 but they are highly valued on a PE ratio basis as you can see in my table in my Brinker article "Bob Brinker Stock Market Targets."


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"Auto Buy" and "Auto Sell" levels set ahead of time for target buy and sell levels for my securities.  This allows you to place "limit orders" with your broker in advance so you can go about your business.
More articles:

Bob Brinker Stock Market Targets

This article compares Bob Brinker's S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2018 and 2019 with those of one of my favorite economists, Dr. Ed Yardeni. 

In almost every Marketimer Newsletter, editor Bob Brinker publishes his earnings estimate for the S&P 500, his estimate for a reasonable price to earnings (PE) ratio range, then a reasonable "potential" price for the S&P 500 index usually calculated by multiplying the two numbers then applying some spit-shine.

Brinker currently estimates the market "has the potential" to reach $2900 when it starts to discount 2019 earnings of $163 with a PE ratio of 17 to 18.  As my table below shows, this is about the highest PE ratio Brinker has thought acceptable since 2008 based on the Marketimer newsletters I surveyed to make the table below.

Email Alerts for New Articles:  Click "Follow" on the right hand side of this blog and it  (Google Blogger) should send you a FREE alert via email when I publish a new article here.  I am pretty sure it does not send email alerts when I make updates to the articles so I will try to write "check back" if I plan to add to the article.

Of course, you need to take this numerology with large grains of salt.  For example, ten years ago the market was at $1331 and about to crash to $666 while Brinker predicted new highs into the "$1600s range" as I highlight in this table.
I'll try to provide regular updates of that table here because it has some interesting calculations and it provides a good historical record.

 Here is an example from his May 3, 2017 Marketimer how he frames the data with words.

From over 20 years of following Brinker, I've noticed he usually starts his S&P 500 earnings estimates lower than the consensus of the average of most analysts tracked by tracking services. Then if the year goes well, Brinker raises his estimates such that by the end of the year they are close to consensus.  This also allows him to raise his estimates for the market price before it moves "closer to the period when investors will discount" the next year's earnings estimates.   

Dr. Ed Yardeni's Estimates: This is what one of my favorite economists, Dr. Ed Yardeni, publishes.

Note how Dr. Yardeni also has a below consensus forecast for 2018 and 2019 S&P 500 earnings of $155 and 166, respectively.



Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter
 Subscribe NOW and get the May 2018 Issue for FREE!!!
SPECIAL BENEFIT:  All questions about what I write answered by Email. 
If what I write is not clear to you, just ask! 
(Your 1 year, 12 issue subscription with SPECIAL ALERT emails will start with November issue.

Get email alerts when I buy or sell securities for my explore portfolio
"Auto Buy" and "Auto Sell" levels set ahead of time for target buy and sell levels for my securities.  This allows you to place "limit orders" with your broker in advance so you can go about your business.
Today's S&P 500 Chart

Dr. Ed Yardeni is a regular guest on CNBC, the financial show that runs from "Squawk Box" starting at 3 AM PST to Jim Cramer's "Mad Money" ending at 4 PM PST.  See www.yardeni.com for more information about Dr. Ed.

Saturday, April 07, 2018

Market Update & Bob Brinker's April Investment Advice

This article gives a short update on the stock market followed by an update of Bob Brinker's April investment advice.  Next Article: Be Your Own Financial Advisor

Email Alerts for New Articles:  Click "Follow" on the right hand side of this blog and it  (Google Blogger) should send you a FREE alert via email when I publish a new article here.  I am pretty sure it does not send email alerts when I make updates to the articles so I will try to write "check back" if I plan to add to the article.

Market Update:
  • The four major US stock market indexes have been down over 10% from their peaks twice this year.  
  • Currently the Dow, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 indexes are down for the year while the Nasdaq is up a fraction.
  • Currently only the Dow remains in the "10% or more" correction zone.

  • Many of my "indicators" have shown this decline is another great time to put profits taken just a month ago back into the market so I have done so.  Here are a few of my graphs showing why.

  • This "volatile period" has been great!  It has provided us (subscribers to Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter Service) excellent opportunities to take many profits near the top and then buy back some on the two declines for my Explore Portfolio. 

    Note, if this much excitement is too much for you, I recommend ignoring the Explore Portfolio and just follow one of my "Core Portfolios" where I seldom make changes (usually once a year at a minimum.)
Bob Brinker hosts a weekly radio show "Moneytalk with Bob Brinker" and writes and or contributes to two investment letters, "Marketimer" and "The Fixed Income Advisor."  His Son, Bob Brinker Jr., owns the fixed income newsletter and Brinker Sr. is listed as a contributor.  Bob Brinker Sr. started "Marketimer" in the 1980s when Bob. Jr. was just a lad.

Bob Brinker Investment Advice: In his April 2018 "Marketimer" newsletter, remains fully invested with his model portfolios one and two 100% in stocks.  He has not taken any profits or raised any cash in his Model Portfolio One or Two, that are 100% in stocks, for any potential corrections or bear markets.

Brinker discusses some past buy signals, but still has not issued a new one for this latest correction that has again exceeded double digits for the major averages.

Brinker discussed his five root causes of a bear market but never got around to saying if one was on the horizon other than say:
"We expect the recent increase in stock market volatility to continue in 2018 as such market activity is typical in the latter stages of an economic cycle."
So, Brinker has his "assets" covered should we fall into a bear market and/or a recession without having said explicitly if he sees either on the horizon as he has done in past newsletters.

Brinker also has his "assets covered" if the market resumes its bull run as his model portfolios are "fully invested" and his advice is:
"For now, we continue to recommend a dollar-cost-average approach for new stock market investing, especially during periods of market weakness in this highly volatile environment.  All Marketimer equity allocations in our model portfolios remain fully invested.  In our view, the primary market uptrend remains intact."

Remember, Brinker has had "All Marketimer equity allocations" in their model portfolios "fully invested" since March 2003, over 15 years!  [See Bob Brinker's Asset Allocation History for details.] Brinker missed the biggest bear market and recession since the Great Depression so take it all with a grain of salt if you believe he can get out near the top for a smaller decline then get back into the market at level low enough to make it worth losing to taxes and fees..

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