Search Bob Brinker Fan Club Blogs

Wednesday, May 23, 2018

Bob Brinker Market Advice & Marketimer Special Bulletin

This article gives a short update on the stock market followed by an update of Bob Brinker's May investment advice.

Email Alerts for New Articles:  Click "Follow" on the right hand side of this blog and it  (Google Blogger) should send you a FREE alert via email when I publish a new article here.  I am pretty sure it does not send email alerts when I make updates to the articles so I will try to write "check back" if I plan to add to the article.  

Market Update:  The four major US stock indexes I track are all in the green year-to-date (YTD) with the Nasdaq up 7.6% and the Dow only up 0.7%.

This year the market as measured by the S&P 500 had its fourth largest correction of 12% since the secular bull market began in March of 2009.  It would be very bullish if the S&P 500 corrects down to the falling upper dashed green support line then quickly reverses.   

Likewise, it would be very bearish for it to drop below the lower dashed green support line where filling the gap at 20% off the record high would be highly probable. 





Bob Brinker remains firmly in the Bull Camp:
  • Bob Brinker did not issue a "Special Bulletin" to take profits before that correction nor did he issue a bulletin to buy when the market was down 12%.
  • Since March 2003, Bob Brinker has had his portfolios one and two 100% in equity mutual funds.  See Bob Brinker's Asset Allocation History.
  • Brinker continues to favor dollar cost averaging new money into the market "especially during periods of weakness" which he has not defined.
  • Brinker says if a "Marketimer buy signal develops" between his monthly newsletters, then he will "post a Special Subscriber Message for access" at his website.   How old fashioned is that?  I send email alerts the same day, usually within hours when I buy or sell something in my portfolio.  Below my newsletter ad is an example.
  • Reading between the lines, the fact Brinker only talks about a special message for a "Buy Signal" between monthly newsletters is a clear indication he's firmly in the Bull camp.


Twenty years ago the market was down a similar 10% and Brinker talked extensively about it on his show and in the newsletter.  He even issued a special buy signal just before it fell another 10% to make an official intraday bear market correction.  
Many of my online friends who follow the markets and especially Brinker lost faith in how he handled this miss. That is he didn't discuss why he was wrong or what he learned. 
My guess is the markets look similar today... they've have a huge run up but are not over valued like they were in 2000 but they are highly valued on a PE ratio basis as you can see in my table in my Brinker article "Bob Brinker Stock Market Targets."


Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter
 Subscribe NOW and get the May 2018 Issue for FREE!!!
SPECIAL BENEFIT:  All questions about what I write answered by Email.
If what I write is not clear to you, just ask! 
(Your 1 year, 12 issue subscription with SPECIAL ALERT emails will start with November issue.
Get email alerts when I buy or sell securities for my explore portfolio


"Auto Buy" and "Auto Sell" levels set ahead of time for target buy and sell levels for my securities.  This allows you to place "limit orders" with your broker in advance so you can go about your business.
More articles:

Bob Brinker Stock Market Targets

This article compares Bob Brinker's S&P 500 earnings estimates for 2018 and 2019 with those of one of my favorite economists, Dr. Ed Yardeni. 

In almost every Marketimer Newsletter, editor Bob Brinker publishes his earnings estimate for the S&P 500, his estimate for a reasonable price to earnings (PE) ratio range, then a reasonable "potential" price for the S&P 500 index usually calculated by multiplying the two numbers then applying some spit-shine.

Brinker currently estimates the market "has the potential" to reach $2900 when it starts to discount 2019 earnings of $163 with a PE ratio of 17 to 18.  As my table below shows, this is about the highest PE ratio Brinker has thought acceptable since 2008 based on the Marketimer newsletters I surveyed to make the table below.

Email Alerts for New Articles:  Click "Follow" on the right hand side of this blog and it  (Google Blogger) should send you a FREE alert via email when I publish a new article here.  I am pretty sure it does not send email alerts when I make updates to the articles so I will try to write "check back" if I plan to add to the article.

Of course, you need to take this numerology with large grains of salt.  For example, ten years ago the market was at $1331 and about to crash to $666 while Brinker predicted new highs into the "$1600s range" as I highlight in this table.
I'll try to provide regular updates of that table here because it has some interesting calculations and it provides a good historical record.

 Here is an example from his May 3, 2017 Marketimer how he frames the data with words.

From over 20 years of following Brinker, I've noticed he usually starts his S&P 500 earnings estimates lower than the consensus of the average of most analysts tracked by tracking services. Then if the year goes well, Brinker raises his estimates such that by the end of the year they are close to consensus.  This also allows him to raise his estimates for the market price before it moves "closer to the period when investors will discount" the next year's earnings estimates.   

Dr. Ed Yardeni's Estimates: This is what one of my favorite economists, Dr. Ed Yardeni, publishes.

Note how Dr. Yardeni also has a below consensus forecast for 2018 and 2019 S&P 500 earnings of $155 and 166, respectively.



Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter
 Subscribe NOW and get the May 2018 Issue for FREE!!!
SPECIAL BENEFIT:  All questions about what I write answered by Email. 
If what I write is not clear to you, just ask! 
(Your 1 year, 12 issue subscription with SPECIAL ALERT emails will start with November issue.

Get email alerts when I buy or sell securities for my explore portfolio
"Auto Buy" and "Auto Sell" levels set ahead of time for target buy and sell levels for my securities.  This allows you to place "limit orders" with your broker in advance so you can go about your business.
Today's S&P 500 Chart

Dr. Ed Yardeni is a regular guest on CNBC, the financial show that runs from "Squawk Box" starting at 3 AM PST to Jim Cramer's "Mad Money" ending at 4 PM PST.  See www.yardeni.com for more information about Dr. Ed.

Saturday, April 07, 2018

Market Update & Bob Brinker's April Investment Advice

This article gives a short update on the stock market followed by an update of Bob Brinker's April investment advice.  Next Article: Be Your Own Financial Advisor

Email Alerts for New Articles:  Click "Follow" on the right hand side of this blog and it  (Google Blogger) should send you a FREE alert via email when I publish a new article here.  I am pretty sure it does not send email alerts when I make updates to the articles so I will try to write "check back" if I plan to add to the article.

Market Update:
  • The four major US stock market indexes have been down over 10% from their peaks twice this year.  
  • Currently the Dow, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 indexes are down for the year while the Nasdaq is up a fraction.
  • Currently only the Dow remains in the "10% or more" correction zone.

  • Many of my "indicators" have shown this decline is another great time to put profits taken just a month ago back into the market so I have done so.  Here are a few of my graphs showing why.

  • This "volatile period" has been great!  It has provided us (subscribers to Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter Service) excellent opportunities to take many profits near the top and then buy back some on the two declines for my Explore Portfolio. 

    Note, if this much excitement is too much for you, I recommend ignoring the Explore Portfolio and just follow one of my "Core Portfolios" where I seldom make changes (usually once a year at a minimum.)
Bob Brinker hosts a weekly radio show "Moneytalk with Bob Brinker" and writes and or contributes to two investment letters, "Marketimer" and "The Fixed Income Advisor."  His Son, Bob Brinker Jr., owns the fixed income newsletter and Brinker Sr. is listed as a contributor.  Bob Brinker Sr. started "Marketimer" in the 1980s when Bob. Jr. was just a lad.

Bob Brinker Investment Advice: In his April 2018 "Marketimer" newsletter, remains fully invested with his model portfolios one and two 100% in stocks.  He has not taken any profits or raised any cash in his Model Portfolio One or Two, that are 100% in stocks, for any potential corrections or bear markets.

Brinker discusses some past buy signals, but still has not issued a new one for this latest correction that has again exceeded double digits for the major averages.

Brinker discussed his five root causes of a bear market but never got around to saying if one was on the horizon other than say:
"We expect the recent increase in stock market volatility to continue in 2018 as such market activity is typical in the latter stages of an economic cycle."
So, Brinker has his "assets" covered should we fall into a bear market and/or a recession without having said explicitly if he sees either on the horizon as he has done in past newsletters.

Brinker also has his "assets covered" if the market resumes its bull run as his model portfolios are "fully invested" and his advice is:
"For now, we continue to recommend a dollar-cost-average approach for new stock market investing, especially during periods of market weakness in this highly volatile environment.  All Marketimer equity allocations in our model portfolios remain fully invested.  In our view, the primary market uptrend remains intact."

Remember, Brinker has had "All Marketimer equity allocations" in their model portfolios "fully invested" since March 2003, over 15 years!  [See Bob Brinker's Asset Allocation History for details.] Brinker missed the biggest bear market and recession since the Great Depression so take it all with a grain of salt if you believe he can get out near the top for a smaller decline then get back into the market at level low enough to make it worth losing to taxes and fees..

Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter
 Subscribe NOW and get the April 2018 Issue for FREE!!!
(Your 1 year, 12 issue subscription with SPECIAL ALERT emails will start with November issue.






Tuesday, February 06, 2018

Bob Brinker's Market Outlook & Latest Investment Advice

Bob Brinker has a weekly radio show "Moneytalk with Bob Brinker" and writes or contributes to two investment letters, "Marketimer" and "The Fixed Income Advisor."  His Son, Bob Brinker Jr., owns the fixed income newsletter and Brinker Sr. is listed as a contributor.  Bob Brinker Sr. started "Marketimer" in the 1980s when Bob. Jr. was just a lad.

Kirk's Stock Market & Sentiment Charts for Feb. 9, 2018

Email Alerts for New Articles:  Click "Follow" on the right hand side of this blog and it  (Google Blogger) should send you a FREE alert via email when I publish a new article here.  I am pretty sure it does not send email alerts when I make updates to the articles so I will try to write "check back" if I plan to add to the article.

Bob Brinker
, in his February 2018 "Marketimer" newsletter, remains fully invested with his model portfolios one and two 100% in stocks.  He has not taken any profits or raised any cash in his Model Portfolio One or Two, that are 100% in stocks, for any potential corrections or bear markets.  Due to rising interest rates, in his Model Portfolio Three and "Income Portfolio," Bob said he will sell one of the three bond funds on Feb. 12 and put the funds in a money market fund.  Interest rates are already up significantly this year so that fund will probably show a loss for the year.

Bob believes any declines will be contained by either a "minor correction category of 5% to 10%, or the major correction category of 10% to 20%."



Special update for 2/8/18:  We are there now!






Bob's Advice for New Money:  Bob continues to say "we recommend a dollar-cost-average approach for new money, especially during periods of market weakness."  

Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter
 Subscribe NOW and get the January 2018 Issue for FREE!!!
(Your 1 year, 12 issue subscription with SPECIAL ALERT emails will start with November issue.


Recently a reader send me this question about investing a "large sum of money."
I’m listening to Brinker right now. He just had a woman call in telling him she had a large sum of money and gave Bob a variety of ways to invest it in the market asked Bob which was the best way to go. Bob segwayed into asset allocation....and never did say which was the best way to invest a large sum of money in the market. 
Do you have a recommendation on the best way to invest a large sum of money in the market?
Here is my reply
If you don't mind, I'll use your EXCELLENT question for a short blog post and share my reply.  
Statistics show lump sum is best as many (perhaps thousands) listen to Brinker and think they should DCA on "weakness" which he usually doesn't define. Many may never get in until a market top just as they give up waiting for weakness in what is called "FOMO" or Fear Of Missing Out.
IF you have the discipline to do monthly DCA into the funds I recommend in my newsletter,  you can have Vanguard set it up for you automatically since all my funds are at Vanguard with ETF equivalents you can buy anywhere, then do the DCA following the plan listed on pg 35 or my January 2018 newsletter near the bottom. 
As for asset allocation, I like being aggressive with money I made and saved while working but for inherited money, I like to keep the memory of who gave it to you alive so I recommend that go into my "Core Conservative" portfolio. 
Brinker is far too careful to make sure he doesn't give any advice that someone can say was "wrong" with market timing and cares less about helping people.   Think of all the years he's said to " DCA on "weakness" and the market pretty much went straight up!  You can see from my advice on pg 34 of my newsletter that I have a SIMPLE PLAN to accelerate DCA payments if the market corrects. 

Monday, February 05, 2018

Suncor to Replace 400 Truck Drivers with Self Driving Trucks

Bob Brinker first recommended Canada’s largest oil company, based in Calgary, Alberta, Suncor Energy (SU Charts) in 2009.   
Suncore announced on January 31, 2018 that they will be cutting about 400 heavy-equipment operator positions over the next six years as they phase in a new fleet of self-driving trucks.
Suncor's plan to test the autonomous truck systems was initially criticized by the Unifor union local because of job losses. But Little says Suncor is working with the union to minimize job impacts by retraining workers whose jobs will disappear
These five million dollar trucks will operate twenty four hours a day and not need a pension plan.

  • ...autonomous trucks are so efficient — because they operate 24 hours a day and stop only for fuel — the company will need fewer trucks in the future than it employs now.
  •  Komatsu says tires on its autonomous trucks last 40 per cent longer because the trucks avoid sudden acceleration and abrupt steering.


"We have about 500 roles that will get eliminated through this and we're going to add about 100. So the net change in our workforce is about 400 positions," chief operating officer Mark Little said in an interview Wednesday.

Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter
(My SPECIAL ALERT emails will begin as soon as I get payment via check or PayPal)



More at: Suncor driverless trucks will kill 400 net jobs, says company

Sunday, January 07, 2018

Market Timer of the Year Awards

The 2017 Market Timer of the Year Award is out and "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter" Tied for 1st Place!


For the Long Term Timer of the Year, "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter" Tied for 2nd Place!




Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter
(My SPECIAL ALERT emails will begin as soon as I get payment via check or PayPal)






Saturday, January 06, 2018

Bob Brinker's Latest Investment Advice

Bob Brinker has a weekly radio show "Moneytalk with Bob Brinker" and writes or contributes to two investment letters, "Marketimer" and "The Fixed Income Advisor."  His Son, Bob Brinker Jr., owns the fixed income newsletter and Brinker Sr. is listed as a contributor.  Bob Brinker Sr. started "Marketimer" in the 1980s when Bob. Jr. was just a lad.

Bob Brinker
, in his January 2018 "Marketimer" newsletter, remains fully invested with his model portfolios one and two 100% in stocks.  He has not taken any profits or raised any cash for any potential corrections or bear markets.


 "The Current Marketimer economic outlook for 2018 does not anticipate a recession... the risk of a bear market decline in excess of 20% is low... the most likely risk for the stock market is the development of a mid-term off-presidential election year correction. Whether such a decline is a major correction of 10% to 20%, or a smaller decline of less than 10%, remains to be seen... all Marketimer portfolios remain fully invested." 

Bob's Advice for New Money:  Bob continues to say "we recommend a dollar-cost-average approach for new money, especially during periods of market weakness."  He doesn't define what market weakness is and given we have not had a market decline over 8% since early 2016, you have to wonder why not jump in right away or be more definitive.

See below for my advice for new money:


Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter
 Subscribe NOW and get the January 2018 Issue for FREE!!!
(Your 1 year, 12 issue subscription with SPECIAL ALERT emails will start with November issue.


Recently a reader send me this question about investing a "large sum of money."
I’m listening to Brinker right now. He just had a woman call in telling him she had a large sum of money and gave Bob a variety of ways to invest it in the market asked Bob which was the best way to go. Bob segwayed into asset allocation....and never did say which was the best way to invest a large sum of money in the market. 
Do you have a recommendation on the best way to invest a large sum of money in the market?
Here is my reply
If you don't mind, I'll use your EXCELLENT question for a short blog post and share my reply.  
Statistics show lump sum is best as many (perhaps thousands) listen to Brinker and think they should DCA on "weakness" so they never get in until a market top.   
IF you have the discipline to do monthly DCA into the funds I recommend in my newsletter,  you can have Vanguard set it up for you automatically since all my funds are at Vanguard with ETF equivalents you can buy anywhere, then do the DCA following the plan listed on pg 35 or my September newsletter near the bottom. 
As for asset allocation, I like being aggressive with money I made and saved while working but for inherited money, I like to keep the memory of who gave it to you alive so I recommend that go into my "Core Conservative" portfolio. 
Brinker is far too careful to make sure he doesn't give any advice that someone can say was "wrong" with market timing and cares less about helping people.   Think of all the years he's said to " DCA on "weakness" and the market has pretty much gone straight up!  You can see from my advice on pg 34 of my newsletter that I have a SIMPLE PLAN to accelerate DCA payments if the market corrects.  It is one reason I lost respect for Brinker.

FREE Updates Mailing List


We email regular "FREE Bob Brinker Fan Club Updates" to everyone on our "Bob Brinker Fan Club" distribution list. If you would like to get on this list, then click this link.


Top Rated Newsletter


Timer Digest Features
Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter
on its Cover

Cick to read the full page article!






US Treasury Rates at a Glance - iBond Rates - LIBOR Rates

Must Read:
Beware of Annuities - Payday Loans Warning