The Cleveland Fed has a nice page that shows what the futures predict for rates over time: "Monetary Policy :: Fed Funds Rate Predictions." On that page they currently show this graph:
The odds can be read off the side of the graph. The odds are now:
- 70% for a 0.25% cut to 4.50%
- 15% for a 0.50% cut to 4.25%
- 15% they leave rates unchanged at 4.75%
So... there is an 85% chance we get a rate cut of 0.25 to 0.50% and 15% chance they keep rates at 4.75%. So, Bob's rate cut cake is "85% baked" as of yesterday's data.