The 60 day moving average (60-DMA) of the CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio ($CPC) remains near at a record high of 1.10 as shown on this chart.
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On January 04, with the 60-DMA of the put/call ratio at a then record of 1.00, we reported here that Bob Brinker said this was bullish.
In his January Marketimer, Bob Brinker reported:On an intraday basis, the market declined 20.2% and the put/call ratio is 10% higher at the current record level of 1.10.
"The 60-day put/call ratio remains in bullish territory as the new year begins."
Brinker remains bullish, does not expect a bear market (as defined as a 20% or more decline in the S&P500) and he looks for new highs to be made in the year ahead.
Some Historical Perspective:
- In January 2000, when Brinker last lowered his asset allocation to equities , the 60-day put/call ratio was 0.525
- In March 2000, when the S&P500 peaked before the 2000-2002 bear market, the 60-day put/call ratio was all the way down to 0.475.
- In November 2002, shortly after the markets bottomed in October 2002, the 60-day put/call ratio was 0.86
- In March 2003, when Brinker returned to a fully invested position, the 60-day put/call ratio was 0.82
Here is a chart of the put/call ratio back to 1998.
For more information, see Technical Analysis: Sentiment Indicators
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