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Monday, July 28, 2008

Bob Brinker Sees New Market Highs

This weekend Bob Brinker told a caller to "Moneytalk" that he thought the S&P500 could make new highs in the next one to three years.

Click charts courtesy of stockcharts.com to see full size images

This is good news as the S&P500 is about 300 points away from "new highs." New highs would be a gain of 20%!
  • [(1576-1261) /1576] x 100% = 19.99%

From Kirk's Market Update for July 26, 2008:
Index (1)
Started Week Ended Week Change % Change YTD
DJIA 11496.57 11370.69 -125.88 -1.1 % -14.3 %
Nasdaq 2282.78 2310.53 27.75 1.2 % -12.9 %
S&P 500 1260.68 1257.76 -2.92 -0.2 % -14.3 %
Russell 2000 693.08 710.33 17.25 2.5 % -7.3 %

Note 1: Index returns do not include dividends.

From Honeybee's Summary, Commentary and Moneytalk Excerpts, July 26, 2008:

Caller Gary: “I was just wondering what your opinion was on the market returning to its previous highs?”

Brinker replied: “Well, I would say that uhhhhh….what kind of a time frame do you have in mind, that’s the key? It’s not going to happen this week, you know we’ve got to get up 300 points in the S&P – 300 points in the S&P to get to new highs. What kind of a time-frame were you thinking about?” .

Gary: “Well, I don’t know –1 to 3 three years. What kind of a time-frame would you………”

Brinker replied: “Oh, I would say within your time-frame of 1 to 3 years, would the market get to new all-time-highs in the S&P 500. For me I think the answer would be without question – that would be my opinion. Would the market get to new all-time-highs within your time-frame of 1 to 3 years? Yeah. For me, my opinion on that would be -- without question."
Brinker sure sounds confident. Of course he was confident in new highs at much higher levels too so this is nothing new.

From Bob Brinker Timing Model Mauled By Bear Market:
Months into the bear market, Brinker thought we were still in a bull market. The bear market started at the high, in October 2007!

January 2008 with 100% invested & S&P500 @ 1468.36
  • Dollar Cost Average. Lump sum mid 1400's
  • Pg 3: “In summary, the Marketimer stock market timing model indicates that conditions are favorable for the market as we enter 2008. We expect the S&P Index to achieve new record highs this year and to reach the 1600’s range in the process."
March 2008 with 100% invested & S&P500 @ 1330.63
  • Dollar Cost Average. Lump sum low 1300's
  • Marketimer Pg 1: "Based on the model’s current readings, we expect the area of the correction bottom established during recent weeks in the S&P500 Index low 1300’s to contain any further testing and probing that may occur."
May 2008 with the S&P500 back over 1400 he gave a bad news bashing on the radio that had their heads spinning. Brinker said:

“So what we have here basically, is an example of false prophets and it’s sad. And the reason it’s sad is the damage done. Think of the people that are looking today at the market, S&P at 1400 and they’ve been scared out of the market in the first quarter by these bears………It’s just amazing and yet these people are out there, and these people are not happy, I’m sure, to find themselves out of a rising market since March. To find themselves looking for ever lower prices when in fact we’ve had the opposite.
But it is good to know Brinker is still bullish. I look forward to new market highs when Brinker can bash the "bad news bears" yet again!

2 comments:

  1. What Bob forgot to tell us is that we would see new multi year lows BEFORE the predicted crawl up to new highs!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi C

    (Hmmm... why do I suddenly get thirsty and think of the Apollo space program...)

    With the S&P500 currently trading at 1,165.77, it looks like the Cassandras were right and Bob was wrong.

    BTW, I did some buying with the dry powder in my newsletter explore portfolio today. Click this to find out what I bought.

    FWIW, I've never understood this "all or nothing then make a big deal of buying opportunities while 100% invested" tactic Brinker uses... It only makes sense to me if your goal as a newsletter writer is to make new people think you actually called a bottom when you were actually fully invested all the way down for a 400 point ride.

    OTOH, I like to have dry powder ALWAYS from using asset allocation. I also have profit taking targets for some of what I bought today... I hope to sell for a 30 or 40% gain even if it is just a bear market, dead cat bounce to even lower lows. Unlike Brinker, I know you really can't time the markets.

    ReplyDelete

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