About a year ago Bob Brinker called people like me and Robert Prechter Cassandras when the S&P500 rallied to its 200 day moving average (at about 1440 on the graph below.) Us Cassandras warned of trouble ahead for the economy. Bob Brinker , who could not have been any more wrong, thought the market was on its way to new highs for 2008 after he issued a "gift horse buy" in the mid 1400s!Dow 8,284.41
Markets at a glance
- Kirk's Market Thoughts 3/28/08: ECRI Calls it "A Recession of Choice"
- Bob Brinker's 5/31/08: Cassandra Bashing
Last weekend Bob Brinker made it very clear to his audience he recommends "buying on weakness" and he expects large gains for 2009. I hope this is not another sign of a top after the market touched its 200 day moving average like it did a year ago when he bashed us Cassandras.
Robert Prechter continued to warn that the stock market was headed lower.
It turns out Prechter was the profit last year while Brinker has egg on his face.
Unlike Bob Brinker and Prechter, I don't pretend to be able to time the market (for more than a few percent of my assets in my explore portfolio) so I took profits to get back to my target asset allocation of 70% equities after using market weakness to add to positions.
From "Robert Prechter Predicts Deflation, Depression and New Market Lows," Prechter said:
- "Our models are (showing) right now that it is a much bigger bear market than most people realize, something along the lines of 1929-1932"
- "I think the next leg down will be at least as severe if not more severe than what we just experienced. So you want to stay on the side of safety"
Who is the Cassandra and who is a prophet this time?
- Post your answer in the comment section.
As of April 30, 2009, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is up 5.2% YTD vs. DJIA DOWN 6.9% vs. S&P500 DOWN 2.5%.
(More Info & FREE Sample Issue)
Conquer the Crash: You Can Survive and Prosper in a Deflationary Depression
(Hardcover w/ Updates for 2009)
by Robert R. Prechter Jr (Author), Robert R Prechter Jr (Editor)
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- US Treasury Rates at a Glance
- May 14 Reuters interview
- ~1995 Barron's Interview
From: da_cheif™ 7/12/2005 9:04:36 PM
prechter was interviewed by barrons about 10 years ago...when the dow was at 3500.....he sed that if the dow ever went about 4000 it would prove he didnt know what he was talking about and that nobody should pay attention to him again......lolol.....thats why the recognition wave is still ahead.....it will make the 90s look like childs play....snort
- LIBOR Rates at a Glance