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Monday, April 12, 2010

Secular Bear Market Definition Bob Brinker

Bob Brinker loves to use catch phrases to help him sell the idea he can time the stock market. Don't let them fool you.

Honeybee reported yesterday in her April 10, 2010, Bob Brinker's Moneytalk: Summary that Bob Brinker is talking about "cyclical bull markets" again on his radio show. She repored:
* Bob Brinker said: "The Dow Jones Industrial Average closing out the week at 10, 997. That is a new cyclical bull market recovery high for the Dow. The S&P 500 Index also closing the week at a new cyclical bull market recovery closing high of 1194....The total rate of return, including cash dividends, for the S&P 500 Index year-to-date, now stand at 7 1/2%."
and
Item of interest: BOB BRINKER'S SECULAR BEAR MEGATREND IS ON AGAIN.

In June, 2007, Bob Brinker stated that the secular bear megatrend that he said began in Year-2000 had ended the PRIOR year -- in June, 2006!
June, 2007 Marketimer, Brinker said: "In our view, the valuation based secular bear market that was established following the March, 2000 closing high for the S&P 500 index (1527.46) and following the January, 2000 closing high for the DJIA (11723), reached its conclusion on June 13, 2006 at the bottom of the mid-term off-presidential election year correction."
Brinker never mentioned the secular bear megatrend again until this month (And he never told Moneytalk listeners he said it ended):
April 5, 2010, Marketimer, Bob Brinker said: "The current secular bear megatrend began during the first quarter of Year 2000, and is now entering its eleventh year."
No doubt, Brinker had to declare the secular bear megatrend back on because even though his timing model missed the worst bear market since the Great Depression and he rode it down fully invested, he is now calling the current market a "cyclical bull market."
Honeybee is right. Bob Brinker originally came up with the "secular bear market" long after the markets peaked in March 2000. He stuck with it until 2007 when the stock markets were making new all time highs then he said it ended the year before! What was absurd is by definition secular bears end when new highs are made.

Now Brinker says the secular bear market has been going all along and doesn't give any reason as to why he was so fooled in 2007 to have reported it was over while recommending a gift horse buying opportunity with the S&P500 in the mid 1400s!!!

Don't be fooled. If Bob Brinker didn't have a clue the markets would collapse just before the biggest bear market since the Great Depression, then what gives you confidence he has a clue what they will do now?

8 comments:

  1. NO one has a clue.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Sucker Born Every MinuteApril 12, 2010 1:34 PM

    I just got this via email:

    Awarded one million pounds send details.

    Name....
    Sex...
    Occupation...
    Country...


    Seems this organization should advertise on Moneytalk!

    ReplyDelete
  3. If George is out there, we are all infuriated by what Facebook did to you. I will be glad to join others in submitting a protest to Facebook for what most of us perceive as a wrong. George, we welcome you back on Investing for the Longterm. Just open a new Facebook account under a new email address and name, and let's get the discussion going again. I always value your contributions.

    ReplyDelete
  4. WARNING

    It looks like George J's last post on my facebook Brinker Discussion group that was both critical of Brinker and had a link to Honeybee's blog with a story showing why he was critical... got him kicked off!

    I wish I had saved a copy of his last post, but I hardly thought it was something that would get him in trouble here.

    He is not the first one to report their facebook account was terminated shortly after posting a link on facebook to any of the blogs with Brinker's "real record" on display.

    George was ALWAYS a gentleman in how he treated others, especially those he didn't agree with. He is far more conservative than I am, but I always respected his opinion and how he expressed it.

    I just now complained to Facebook that they should contact group leaders before kicking people off... but I think they are evil like Yahoo! in how they will kick people off and terminate accounts without a trail or even an ability to face their accusers.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Brinker changes his mind more often than Faye Dunaway being bitch slapped by Jack Nicholson!

    ReplyDelete
  6. well, I rode my Port all the way down and back up again..

    Since 07'? It's back Up about 4%
    Not the best, but surely would have been worse if I had paniced and bailed in 08' and went conservative with it..

    ReplyDelete
  7. it is better to be lucky than smart!

    ReplyDelete
  8. "Anonymous said...
    well, I rode my Port all the way down and back up again..
    Since 07'? It's back Up about 4%


    Well, for sure you were not following Brinker's advice.

    His P1 peaked at $302,561 (Nov 2007 Marketimer)
    On March 31, 2010 it was $243,743, about 20% down.

    His P3 peaked at $219,263, (Nov 2007 Marketimer)
    On March 31, 2010 it was $206,613, a little over 4% down.

    ReplyDelete

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