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Saturday, March 22, 2008

Bob Brinker Update and Market Statistics For March 22, 2008


According to Peter Brimelow ( Bob Brinker's Low 1300s Buying Opportunity) Bob Brinker rates the market as a buy here in the low 1300s. Brimelow wrote:

  • Brinker said recently: "In our view, ..... . We now rate the stock market attractive for purchase on any weakness that occurs in the current area of the S&P 500 Index low 1,300s, or any minor weakness that occurs below that level."
The 60 day moving average (60-DMA) of the CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio ($CPC) is currently at a record high of 1.10 as shown on this chart.


In his January 2008 Marketimer, Bob Brinker reported:

    "The 60-day put/call ratio remains in bullish territory as the new year begins."
If the 60-DMA of CPC was bullish at 1.00 for Brinker's model, then it must be raging bullish here at 1.10!

Bob Brinker's S&P500 Buy Levels Charted:



Honey's Bob Brinker Beehive Buzz reported:

    In July, 2007 Marketimer, Bob Brinker predicted a "move into the S&P 500 Index 1600's range as we move forward....."
    .
    Kirk Comment: Most of us who know nobody has ever timed the market successfully over the long term HOPE 1256,98 was just a "detour" on the road to 1600s.
    .
    In August, 2007 Bob Brinker said: "We rate the stock market as attractive for purchase on weakness that occurs in the area of the S&P 500 Index mid-1400's. Above that level, we recommend a dollar-cost- average approach."
    .
    Brinker repeated the "mid-1400's" buy signal in September, October, November and December.
For more info, see:

Market Statistics for 03/22/08

Year to date, the S&P500, DJIA and NASDAQ Composite are down 15.6%, 13.4% and 21.1% respectively from their all time highs made in late 2007.

On an intraday basis, the S&P500 and the NASDAQ Composite have been down as much as 20.2% and 24.7% respectively while the DJIA has "only" been down 19.4%, just shy of the 20% decline required for an "official" bear market definition some use.

For full details with charts, see "Market Update for March 22, 2008" at Kirk's Market Thoughts

FIXED INCOME:

The yield curve is very healty for banks with the 30 year T-bond paying 4.17% and the 3-month T-bill only paying 0.61%, a spread of 3.56%.

See: The Yield Curve Spread as a Market Predictor

This sort of a spread usually signals a strong stock market ahead just as the inverted yield curve in late 2006 and early 2007 correctly predicted the recession or near recession we are in now.

From 1/1/1999 through 03/22/08:
    Kirk's 80:20 Aggressive Core Portfolio is up 62.6%
    Kirk's 50:50 Conservative Core Portfolio is up 67.3%
    Kirk's 70:30 Explore Portfolio is up 175.7%

    80% Core Aggressive plus 20% Explore is up 85.3%
    90% Core Conservative plus 10% Explore is up 78.2%

    100% Total Stock Market (VTSMX) is up 35.6%


    Since October 15, 2000 when Bob Recommended QQQQ to his investors for up to half their cash reserves, my newsletter "explore portfolio" is up 41.7% while Brinker's QQQQ is down 46.4%!!!

    You can see why I recommended and continue to recommend my Explore Portfolio over Bob's QQQQ.

If you want to know what I have been buying in this period of weakness with my profit taking dollars from selling when the market was higher, Subscribe to Kirk's Investment Newsletter TODAY and get the March 2008 issue FOR FREE!

More info at:

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