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Tuesday, March 03, 2009

Hey Brinker, The Cassandras Were Right. You Were Wrong!

Less than a year ago the stock market rallied from the low 1300s to its 200 day moving average around 1400 just before rolling over and falling over 50% into the 600s. Brinker bashed the bears as "Cassandras" with one of his rants that makes him such a great entertainer.

Brinker said at the end of May, 2008:
“So what we have here basically, is an example of false prophets and it’s sad. And the reason it’s sad is the damage done. Think of the people that are looking today at the market, S&P at 1400 and they’ve been scared out of the market in the first quarter by these bears………It’s just amazing and yet these people are out there, and these people are not happy, I’m sure, to find themselves out of a rising market since March. To find themselves looking for ever lower prices when in fact we’ve had the opposite.
Brinker thought those of us who warned the economy was slipping into a recession were wrong. He called us Cassandras. Brinker said:
What we have right in here now is evidence that the Cassandras, who earlier this year, were telling us we were in recession – right now they’ve basically – well I’ll be kind, basically, they look like fools right now. Because all that they’ve accomplished with their talk about recession…………all that they have to show for their efforts is that they scared the people who listened to them out of the stock market this past winter……….”
Here is the article I did with my friends at ECRI in March 2008:
ECRI Calls it "A Recession of Choice"
Brinker was clear he thought the market was coming back from a correction and anyone who sold were fooled by the bears:

“……..And probably a lot of those people got scared out near the correction lows. The initial correction low in January, which was successfully tested in mid-March, before the market reversed and resumed its uptrend. And basically, if you were to total up all of the accomplishments of the Cassandras, that would be it – that they scared people out of the market during a stock market correction in the first quarter………..Because they have been unable to present any evidence of a recession."

Here is the Full Report of Brinker's Cassandra Rant

Brinker is quick to pat himself on the back when one of his lucky guesses (or market timing calls) turns out to be correct but he goes into hiding when he is wrong. Brinker needs to own up on the radio and explain to his audience
  • why he was so very wrong about the economy
  • why his timing model gave a rare "gift horse buying opportunity" near the very top before the worst bear market since the Great Depression, so far.
  • What he would change to his timing model to make it work again
or be truthful and explain
  • Why trying to time the stock market is a fools' game.
I also think he owes some of us who warned of a recession an apology, but I am not holding my breath for any of this.

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