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Friday, March 20, 2009

Doug Kass Market Bottom Call

Jim Cramer & Debra Borchardt discuss the "Doug Kass Bottom Call" on RealMoney TV. I saw Doug say on CNBC TV that the market would make a generational bottom sometime in the next few days just two days before the S&P500 (S&P500 charts) hit 666.76 then rebound to 803.24, up 20.5%.

Jim tells Debra why we should listen to Doug:
"A guy who saw things coming when no one else did is a guy who may see things coming that no one else does."
Jim says listening to Kass is not the same as betting on the guy who got two blackjacks in a row in a card game.

Cramer says he has known Doug for 15 years and Doug has "always been short" so to have Doug say it is a "a generational bottom" is "shocking" and worth paying attention to.
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I prefer to leave market timing to the soothsayers while I beat the markets using "core and explore" investing.

After the markets bottomed in 1998, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" gained 117% in 1999.

After the markets bottomed in 2002, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" gained 77% in 2003.

I look for similar gains after this bear market bottoms . The gains have already started since my portfolio, though down from the peak since I don't pretend to time the markets, is ahead of the S&P500 for both 2008 and 2009.

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 94% vs. S&P500 DOWN 14% vs. NASDAQ down 28% vs. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) up 37% (All through 12/31/08) (More Info)

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1 comment:

  1. Please..I'm not going to listen to Kass just because Cramer says so...Kass had been saying we had hit the lows before his generational call on TV...very few people know this. He also said we have seen the market highs in August of 09..Terrible Call..Doug has been short the msrket instead and the SPX melted up right in his face. What about his terrible buy the banks call a couple of years ago that was disaster. Anybody calling market tops and bottoms do it just for the attention. He has been wrong very often in his market top and bottom calls. On the Edge he is very well knows for mentioning a trade and after it goes up if he's short or down if he's long, he will not mention the stock again or what he did with his position. However if he gets it right he will throw it at our faces he got it right. Sounds like an old insecure person to me. I will pass on Kass's advice. Doing very well without it. Thanks

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