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Saturday, September 12, 2009

Mark Hulbert Reviews '08 Forecasts - Bob Brinker Bullish

Mark Hulbert published an article yesterday called "Let's do the time warp again" summarizing what many of the newsletters he follows were saying about the market a year ago. Here is what he quoted from Bob Brinker's November 2008 Marketimer:
"We expect the S&P 500 index (S&P500 Quote + Charts) to challenge its previous record closing high of 1565 next year as investors move beyond the current economic malaise and look forward to improving corporate earnings prospects as the economy moves into its recovery phrase."
What Hulbert doesn't tell you is he wrote an article at the very top of the market saying the newsletter writers HE THOUGHT BY HIS RATINGS were the TOP MARKET TIMERS were mostly bullish so he missed calling the bear market also.

In this Thursday, November 15, 2007 article "Bob Brinker Still Bullish According to Mark Hulbert" I wrote:
Mark Hulbert reported today that Bob Brinker remains bullish along with the other eight top market timers Mark tracks. The best news is the worst market timers are bearish.

In his article "The best vs. the worst: Best long-term market timers believe we're in a bull market," Mark writes of Bob Brinker:
Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early November (2007), editor Bob Brinker writes: "We continued to believe that there is no risk of a cyclical bear market (a decline of 20% or more as measured by the S&P 500 index (S&P500 chart) in the months ahead ... We expect the stock market to set a series of new record highs into next year." His model portfolios are fully invested.
Remember the S&P500 was listed at 1549.38 by Bob Brinker in his November 5, 2007 Marketimer.
DateCloseVolumeAdj Close*
5-Nov-071,502.173,819,330,0001,502.17
2-Nov-071,509.654,285,990,0001,509.65
1-Nov-071,508.444,241,470,0001,508.44
31-Oct-071,549.383,953,070,0001,549.38
30-Oct-071,531.023,212,520,0001,531.02
* Close price adjusted for dividends and splits.

Both Brinker and Mark Hulbert sell the idea they can time the stock markets. I have little evidence either adds long-term value with their market timing when you look at ALL of their work, not just what they want you to see. For example, read

=> Bob Brinker's QQQ Advice
=> Effect of QQQ advice on reported results

Hulbert doesn't tell you that rating market timers is like rating farts. In the end, they all stink.

Current S&P500 Data:

DateOpenHighLowClose
11-Sep-091,043.921,048.181,038.401,042.73
10-Sep-091,032.991,044.141,028.041,044.14
9-Sep-091,025.361,036.341,023.971,033.37


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