Bob Brinker Bullish for 2010

In the recent article "Top Market Timers Give Their 2010 Outlooks" editor Mark Hulbert says only five market timers are still in business whom he considers worth consulting for advice.

"For guidance, I decided -- as I often do -- to turn to those investment newsletters with the best market timing records in the Hulbert Financial Digest's ranking system."

The editors Hulbert turned to are in alphabetical order

"Blue Chip Investor" editor Steven Check who is Bullish.

Based on the issue of his newsletter published earlier this week, that model currently rates the stock market as being "undervalued," though not "extremely undervalued" as it was one year ago.

"Bob Brinker's Marketimer" editor Robert Brinker who is Bullish.

"In his latest issue, published earlier this week, in which he reported that his market timing model is bullish and his model portfolios are fully invested, Brinker wrote: "Our indicators suggest that a new cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not likely to begin during the winter season. While it is true that cyclical bull market corrections can occur at any time, we would regard any such pullback as a health restoring event if it were to occur in the weeks ahead. Cyclical bull market corrections are usually contained with a range of five to ten percent, and are followed by significant rallies to new cyclical bull market highs."

"The Chartist" and "The Chartist Mutual Fund Letter" editor Dan Sullivan who is bullish.

"We're betting that the bull market will remain intact over the next year. That's our best guesstimate, but in all candor, we really don't know what the market is going to do over the next 12 months or 6 months or, for that matter, 3 months; and nobody else knows either."

"Fidelity Independent Adviser" editor Donald Dion who is bullish.

Dion does not hazard a prediction about the stock market's trend for all of 2010, preferring instead to write that the year will test the stock market's "strength and stamina." In the meantime, however, Dion is keeping his equity-oriented model portfolios fully invested.

"Fidelity Sector Investor" editor James Lowell who is bullish.

"I think 2010 will be another 20% gainer."

Brinker was fully invested for the worst bear market since the Great Depression and he issued a "gift horse" near the very top yet he is one of Mark Hulbert's "top market timing newsletters."

On his May 31, 2008 radio show with the S&P500 in the 1400s Bob Brinker bashed those of us warning of a recession as "recession Cassandras"

• See 5/31/08: Cassandra Bashing
• “The stock market had a good month in the month of May, finishing at 1400.38 in the S&P 500 Index."
• “What we have right in here now is evidence that the Cassandras, who earlier this year, were telling us we were in recession – right now they’ve basically – well I’ll be kind, basically, they look like fools right now. Because all that they’ve accomplished with their talk about recession…………all that they have to show for their efforts is that they scared the people who listened to them out of the stock market this past winter……….”
• My March 28, 2008 article "ECRI Calls it "A Recession of Choice"

If that puts you at the top of the list for market timers, it should tell you just how poorly market timers as a whole do compared to stock pickers, asset allocators or simply buy and hold index fund investors.

Some of the comments to the article are quite telling:

January 7, 2010: Larry Merritt wrote:

Bob Brinker was fully invested during the entire bear market - all during 2007 through 2009. He has remained fully invested for years. So how can his record be considered to be better than a buy-and-hold investment approach? Hulbert is wrong about Brinker.

January 8, 2010: Ronald Blum replied:

Hulbert made the same assertion about Brinker in a MarketWatch piece a short while ago. He has chosen to ignore that criticism and repeat his mistake.

January 10, 2010: Jason Setlock wrote:

Really, as someone above posted with regard to Brinker's Market timer. I believe In 2007 the newsletter declared that a new secular Bull Market had arrived. One may say it turned absolutely bullish near the absolute top. From then on it was "buy the dip" all the way down as far as I know. I think we can all agree that 2007 did not usher in a new bull mkt for much except Tbills, greenbacks, and golden parachutes.

So, if you still care, Bob Brinker is bullish as we start 2010, but he said the same thing at the start of 2008 except then he was predicting the S&P500 would go to the 1600s rather than the 600s.

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 159% (a double plus another 59%!!) vs. the S&P500 UP a tiny 8.6% vs. NASDAQ UP a tiny 3.5% (All through 12/31/09)

In 2009, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" gained 33.5% vs. the DJIA up 18.8%
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Bob Brinker 2007 to 2010 Advice on a Chart

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Bob Brinker Bullish for 2010 Says Mark Hulbert of Marketwatch

Today Mark Hulbert, editor of "Hulbert's Financial Digest," reports in the Marketwatch article "Upbeat for 2010" that Bob Brinker is bullish for 2010.

I normally don't put too much weight in the year-ahead forecasts that investment advisers circulate every December.

But I make an exception when it comes to the newsletters on the Hulbert Financial Digest's Newsletter Honor Roll for 2010. Making it onto that Honor Roll requires jumping over a number of demanding hurdles; merely beating the market won't do. Instead, to make it onto the Honor Roll, a newsletter had to have above-average performance both in up and down markets.

Bob Brinker's Marketimer. Brinker in his most recent issue wrote: "Based on our earnings estimate for next year and our fair value price/earnings ratio of 16 to 17 times operating earnings, we estimate upside potential for the S&P 500 index (Quote and chart) into next year in the 1170 to 1240 range." That upside potential represents a gain from current levels of between 6% and 13%; his model portfolios are fully invested.

I don't know what Mark Hulbert was smoking to award Brinker the "Honor Roll" after he missed the biggest bear market since the Great Depression and issued at "gift horse buying opportunity" near the very top in the mid 1400s.

In November 2007 I wrote this article: Bob Brinker Still Bullish According to Mark Hulbert that said:

In his article "The best vs. the worst: Best long-term market timers believe we're in a bull market," Mark writes of Bob Brinker:

Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early November, editor Bob Brinker writes: "We continued to believe that there is no risk of a cyclical bear market (a decline of 20% or more as measured by the S&P 500 index (S&P500 chart) in the months ahead ... We expect the stock market to set a series of new record highs into next year." His model portfolios are fully invested.

Mark covers nine of his top market timers and concludes Bob Brinker is not a "lone voice in the wilderness" with his bullishness.

I am not alone with my amazement as the comments on the article show. Here is a sampling:

slee915 10 hours ago

This article loses all credibility as soon as it mentions Bob Brinker's Market Timer is in the Honor Roll. C'mon Mark, Bob stayed FULLY INVESTED through the last bear market.

G-ron 1 hour ago

Not sure how Brinker is on the honor roll because he totally ignored the financial crisis. Barely mentioned it as well as ignoring it in his timing. Hulbert added nothing in this post but that said he still has something to say worth reading from time to time. In my mind it is more important who he has left out of his survey than who he has included.

My criticism is with the method and not with the conclusion which I think has a higher probability of being right than wrong.

MexicanBatman 44 minutes ago

I have to agree with slee and G-ron. Brinker was fully invested during the recent power dive. I can't imagine any newsletter subscriber believing they got their money's worth... [clip]

I think that Bob got on Mark's list because he did have a good call in 2000-2001 to get out of the market... but Mark doesn't consider Brinker's cocky "QQQQ counter trend rally" which he advised people to buy the Q's and never told people to dump them as we slid into the great dot-com abyss. There are scores of web pages complaining about call....

Bob didn't count that QQQQ "free advice to everuone, not just subsctibers" as part of his model portfolio,,, I supect this sleight of hand is why Brinker is on Mark's list...

honeybee2 16 minutes ago

Mark Hulbert never reported the following facts about Bob Brinker. Not only did Bob Brinker remain fully invested for the 2008-2009 megabear ride, but he advised all new money in at ever lower levels as the market fell:

January 4, 2008: Buy S&P 500 in the mid 1400s.
February 10, 2008: Buy S&P 500 in the low 1300s.
August 5, 2008: Buy S&P 500 at 1240 or less.
September 2, 2008: Buy S&P 500 in low-to-mid 1200s
September 16, 2008: Prior buy signal rescinded, dollar cost average recommended
January 15, 2009: Buy S&P 500 low-to-mid 800s
March 5, 2009: Waiting for retest of the lows -- missed the March 9th bottom.

In 2008, Bob Brinker's Model Portfolio I lost 39.7%; Model Portfolio II lost 37.4%; and Model Portfolio III (balanced) lost 23.9%.

More info:

• Bob Brinker Marketimer 2008 Performance Numbers
  
  
• Mark Hulbert Reviews '08 Forecasts - Bob Brinker Bullish
  
  
• => Bob Brinker's QQQ Advice
  
  
• => Effect of QQQ advice on reported results
  
  
• S&P 500 index (Quote and chart)

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 159% (a double plus another 59%!!) vs. the S&P500 UP a tiny 8.6% vs. NASDAQ UP a tiny 3.5% (All through 12/31/09)

In 2009, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" gained 33.5% vs. the DJIA up 18.8%

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Kirk's Two Investment Letters

Mark Hulbert Reviews '08 Forecasts - Bob Brinker Bullish

Mark Hulbert published an article yesterday called "Let's do the time warp again" summarizing what many of the newsletters he follows were saying about the market a year ago. Here is what he quoted from Bob Brinker's November 2008 Marketimer:

"We expect the S&P 500 index (S&P500 Quote + Charts) to challenge its previous record closing high of 1565 next year as investors move beyond the current economic malaise and look forward to improving corporate earnings prospects as the economy moves into its recovery phrase."

What Hulbert doesn't tell you is he wrote an article at the very top of the market saying the newsletter writers HE THOUGHT BY HIS RATINGS were the TOP MARKET TIMERS were mostly bullish so he missed calling the bear market also.

In this Thursday, November 15, 2007 article "Bob Brinker Still Bullish According to Mark Hulbert" I wrote:

Mark Hulbert reported today that Bob Brinker remains bullish along with the other eight top market timers Mark tracks. The best news is the worst market timers are bearish.

In his article "The best vs. the worst: Best long-term market timers believe we're in a bull market," Mark writes of Bob Brinker:

Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early November (2007), editor Bob Brinker writes: "We continued to believe that there is no risk of a cyclical bear market (a decline of 20% or more as measured by the S&P 500 index (S&P500 chart) in the months ahead ... We expect the stock market to set a series of new record highs into next year." His model portfolios are fully invested.

Remember the S&P500 was listed at 1549.38 by Bob Brinker in his November 5, 2007 Marketimer.

Date	Close	Volume	Adj Close*
5-Nov-07	1,502.17	3,819,330,000	1,502.17
2-Nov-07	1,509.65	4,285,990,000	1,509.65
1-Nov-07	1,508.44	4,241,470,000	1,508.44
31-Oct-07	1,549.38	3,953,070,000	1,549.38
30-Oct-07	1,531.02	3,212,520,000	1,531.02
* Close price adjusted for dividends and splits.

Both Brinker and Mark Hulbert sell the idea they can time the stock markets. I have little evidence either adds long-term value with their market timing when you look at ALL of their work, not just what they want you to see. For example, read

=> Bob Brinker's QQQ Advice
=> Effect of QQQ advice on reported results

Hulbert doesn't tell you that rating market timers is like rating farts. In the end, they all stink.

Current S&P500 Data:

Date	Open	High	Low	Close
11-Sep-09	1,043.92	1,048.18	1,038.40	1,042.73
10-Sep-09	1,032.99	1,044.14	1,028.04	1,044.14
9-Sep-09	1,025.36	1,036.34	1,023.97	1,033.37

• S&P500 Quote + Charts

Mark Hulbert on Bob Brinker's Marketimer Performance Record

About once a year, Mark Hulbert does a full page write-up on each of the newsletters he follows. In April of 2009, Hulbert did a full page on Bob Brinker. This was what he said about Brinker's results that do not include Bob Brinker’s QQQ mistake”.

"Brinker’s fund selections on average have lagged the market. The HFD reports an 8.7% annualized gain for his “Aggressive” portfolio, which is 0.6 percentage points per year less than what this portfolio would have made if each of its funds were invested in the DJ Wilshire 5000 during the times they were owned.”

"Please note: In late 2000, Brinker forecasted a several-month bear market rally and recommended an investment in the NASDAQ 100 Index—a trade that turned out quite unprofitably. However, because Brinker at the time of making this forecast chose not to make this trade part of his model portfolios, his HFD record has not suffered as a result."

__ March 2009 by Mark Hulbert on Pg 4 of the April 2009 issue of "The Hulbert Financial Digest"

This is what Mark Hulbert said in March of 2008:

"Brinker’s fund selections on average have lagged the market. The HFD reports an 11.5% annualized gain for his “Aggressive” portfolio, which is 0.9 percentage points per year less than what this portfolio would have made if each of its funds were invested in the DJ Wilshire 5000 during the times they were owned.”

Hulbert attributes Brinker's under performance relative to the markets to his mutual fund selection. In an attempt to mitigate this under performance, Brinker added an "active passive" portfolio using two Vanguard funds to his newsletter. Currently, this portfolio consists of Vanguard's Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSMX) and Vanguard's International Growth MANAGED mutual fund (VGMFX, a fund I have owned for nearly 20 years for its great performance.) Brinker does not track these or give performance data for them in his Marketimer newsletter, but Mark Hulbert has attempted to track the performance. Mark concludes Brinker's timing ads some value using this portfolio.

For investors who therefore are interested only in his timing, as opposed to his fund advice, Brinker provides an “Active/Passive Portfolio.” It “is designed to provide active management in the areas of long-term market timing while maintaining an indexed approach to the U.S. equity market.” From the beginning of 2002, when the HFD began monitoring this portfolio, to 3/31/09, this portfolio gained 1.3% annualized, vs. a 2.1% annualized loss for the DJ Wilshire 5000.

Hulbert neglects to mention that a portion of this "active/passive" portfolio is in a MANAGED, INTERNATIONAL fund so its benchmark should not be the Wilshre 5000, but a mixture of the Wilshire 5000 and the suitable weighting in an international index. Thus, I conclude that Mark Hulber's conclusion is worthless in gauging if Brinker's timing adds value.

On several Brinker portfolios Mark Hulber tracks, Hulbert reports somewhat different returns than Brinker shows for the specific time periods, some better and some worse. I wrote Hulbert to ask why. Mark said they "periodically undertake various rebalancing transactions to bring a given fund’s actual % weight in a portfolio into line with the % that Brinker assigns to it." I wrote that Brinker has specifically recommended against rebalancing so this "rebalance premium" could more than explain the slight performance edge, especially during a highly volatile market. Clearly, Mark Hulbert admits they don't measure Brinker's performance the way Brinker recommends!

Mark Hulbert also does not adjust Brinker's model portfolio returns for all the "lump sum buys" Brinker issued between 2007 in the "mid 1400s" all the way down to the last "lump sum buy with new money" in the "mid to low 800s" just before the market crashed to 676. To be fair, neither does Brinker.

Click chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com for full size image

Mark Hulbert also leaves out the effect of Brinker's QQQ advice on reported results. Add to that his conclusion that Brinker's market timing has added value since 2002 uses faulty assumptions and you have to ask "why does Mark Hulbert bend over backwards to give Brinker every benefit of the doubt when the record clearly shows Brinker's market timing has added dubious, if any value?"

Doubled Money in a Down Market!

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 104% (over a double!) vs. the S&P500 DOWN 16% vs. NASDAQ down 22% vs. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) up 33% (All through 4/30/09)

As of April 30, 2009, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is up 5.2% YTD vs. DJIA DOWN 6.9% vs. S&P500 DOWN 2.5%.

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Mark Hubert: Bob Brinker Remains Bullish, Same as Last Year

According to newsletter tracker Mark Hulbert, Bob Brinker remains bullish for December 2008. In "Bruised but bullish" Mark writes:

Four of five newsletters on Honor Roll are bullish...

So it behooves us to pay attention to what they are saying.....

You might still object, on the grounds that this same exercise a year ago also reached a bullish conclusion, and yet the stock market is some 40% lower today.

It is a valid objection. Hulbert's methodology of following writers he thinks are the "best market timers" was 100% wrong this year.

See my discussion of Mark Hulbert's November 15, 2007 article: Bob Brinker Still Bullish According to Mark Hulbert where I reported:

"Bob Brinker remains bullish along with the other eight top market timers Mark tracks. The best news is the worst market timers are bearish."

and Mark reported:

"Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early November (2007), editor Bob Brinker writes: "We continued to believe that there is no risk of a cyclical bear market (a decline of 20% or more as measured by the S&P 500 index) in the months ahead ... We expect the stock market to set a series of new record highs into next year." His model portfolios are fully invested."

As you know, Brinker followed this forecast up with a "gift horse buying opportunity" in the mid 1400s.

Click chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com for full size image

This is what Hulbert says now:

Bob Brinker's Marketimer. This newsletter makes it onto this year's honor roll even though editor Brinker last year did not expect the stock market to decline more than 20%. That he nevertheless remains on the Honor Roll is testament both to how good his market calls have been on other occasions over the past 18 years, as well as to the failure of most other newsletters to also anticipate the severity of the market's decline. He was in good company, in other words, and the Honor Roll is graded on the curve.

Brinker currently believes the stock market is in a perhaps extended bottoming process, and he therefore recommends that subscribers invest in the stock market on a dollar-cost-averaging basis. "We are aware that there is widespread fear that financial Armageddon is the likely outcome of the global financial crisis. We take the opposite view, and expect the stock market to record significant gains during the next major market uptrend. We continue to focus our efforts on the ongoing bottoming process that we regard as essential to establishing the level from which a sustainable market uptrend can occur. When we reach the point at which we can upgrade our current stock market view from dollar-cost-average to a renewed buy recommendation, we will do so."

Brinker has had a lot of practice calling these bottoms! With the market reecently up 20% off the recent low on more than one day, he missed one.

Click chart courtesy of Stockcharts.com for full size image

Not to worry about missing bottoms, Bob Brinker has been fully invested since March 2003 . He recommended against taking profits at the top so he has taken a round trip. The other market timers Hulbert follows must be putrid if Brinker's results are the best of the lot.

Comment on this article here

Mark Hubert on Bob Brinker

Bob Brinker remains bullish and fully invested as he has been since March 2003. Brinker has issued several "all in" buy signals for new money as the market has crashed. See the chart of the market below for more on these buy levels.

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In the Barrons's Online article "What the Best Market Timers Are Saying" Mark Hulbert reports only three of the top nine market timers he follows are bullish or on the bearish side of neutral but their average equity allocation is 59%. This is what Mark says Brinker wrote in the latest Marketimer:

Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early October, editor Bob Brinker wrote: "We believe the stock market will return to an uptrend within six months of the start of the next economic recovery. Although the timing of the recovery is uncertain, our view is that it could be underway by next spring. If that scenario unfolds, we could be looking at a stock market turnaround beginning in this year's fourth quarter. This bear market decline has been accompanied by an extraordinary flow of negative financial news, but we are focused on stock market recovery in 2009 as investors go through the process of discounting economic recovery prospects in advance of an improved economic outlook." Brinker is recommending that subscribers' stock portfolios be fully invested.

Kirk Comment: Model Portfolios #1 and #2 are and have been 100% in equities since March 2003. Model portfolio #3 started at 50:50 in March 2003, but went higher as the market went up while Brinker recommended against rebalancing to callers of his show.]

Kirk Comment: Mark should have said “remain fully invested” since Brinker has recommended 100% in equities since March 2003.

What is interesting to me is Hulbert compares the top timers on his list to the bottom timers on his list but he doesn't compare either group to buy and hold the Wilshire 5000 index over the last 20 years. Hulbert wrote:

....I continue to believe that a good approach is to consult the investment newsletters with the best long-term records at calling turns in the stock market.

You might wonder why I would even bother, since the top performers have been consistently more bullish than the bottom performers throughout this bear market. Why turn to them now when they've been wrong over the last year?

My answer: No approach is foolproof. But, over time, the top performers turn out to be more right than the bottom performers.

Kirk Comment: Is that a "well duh moment" or what?

Mark continues:

"And the top performers right now are significantly more bullish than the bottom performers."

Mark is missing a key piece of data in his analysis. His top timers lean towards being bullish since the markets are higher now than they were 15 years ago. If a top timer can't match the market, then why bother with them at all?

Mark used a 15 year time frame over which the stock market is higher so bulls will have a better “long-term record” than the bears. If he used a 3-year period or less, the newsletters with a bearish bias or perhaps gold and commodity letters would clearly be at the top.

From Mark Hulbert's 8/31/2008 newsletter showing his list of the top mutual fund newsletters (27 total eligible) for total returns for the last 15 years:

1. No-Load Fund-x = 13.9%
2. Equity Fund Outlook = 13.8%
3. Timer Digest = 11.8%
4. All Star Fund Trader = 11.4%
5. Bob Brinker's Marketimer = 10.3%
   
   Wilshire5000 9.0%
   

March 2008 by Mark Hulbert on Pg 3 of the March 2008 issue of "The Hulbert Financial Digest" that reviews Brinker's newsletter wrote:

"Please note: In late 2000, Brinker forecasted a several-month bear market rally and recommended an investment in the NASDAQ 100 Index—a trade that turned out quite unprofitably. However, because Brinker at the time of making this forecast chose not to make this trade part of his model portfolios, his HFD record has not suffered as a result."

So one has to take Brinker's place on the list with a truckload of salt.

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Mark Hulbert on Timer Digest and No Load Fund Investor

Timer Digest and No Load Fund Investor have excellent long term records. In the Barrons's Online article What the Best Market Timers Are Saying Mark Hulbert reports only three of the top nine market timers he follows are bullish or on the bearish side of neutral but their average equity allocation is 59%. Mark Reports:

No Load Fund Investor: Neutral to moderately bullish. Editor Mark Salzinger wrote in early October that he has resisted the urge to sell into this downtrend, and is maintaining his asset allocation recommendations. For his so-called "Wealth Builder" portfolio, his letter's most aggressive, that allocation is 70% to U.S. equities and another 15% to international stocks. [85% total in equities]

Kirk Comment: My most aggressive portfolio is 80% equities and 20% in fixed income.

Timer Digest: Bearish: Editor Jim Schmidt bases this newsletter's market timing model on a consensus of the top market timers. His consensus of the top ten based on performance over the last 52 weeks is bearish, with 1 bull, 7 bears, and 2 neutral. His consensus of the top ten for performance over the last two years is bearish, with all ten newsletters bearish. However, in his latest issue, dated October 6, Schmidt wrote: "The deeper the financial markets fall, the greater the inevitable rally will be and the longer the new bull market will last. Meanwhile, it has been said that the average investor is currently behaving like a deer in the head lights during this crisis." The newsletter's model portfolios currently are about 90% invested in stocks, on average.

From Mark Hulbert's 8/31/2008 newsletter showing his list of the top mutual fund newsletters (27 total eligible) for total returns for the last 15 years:

1. No-Load Fund-x = 13.9%
2. Equity Fund Outlook = 13.8%
3. Timer Digest = 11.8%
4. All Star Fund Trader = 11.4%
5. Bob Brinker's Marketimer = 10.3%
   
   Wilshire5000 9.0%

On Pg 3 of the March 2008 issue of "The Hulbert Financial Digest" that reviews Brinker's newsletter, Mark Hulbert wrote:

"Please note: In late 2000, Brinker forecasted a several-month bear market rally and recommended an investment in the NASDAQ 100 Index—a trade that turned out quite unprofitably. However, because Brinker at the time of making this forecast chose not to make this trade part of his model portfolios, his HFD record has not suffered as a result."

So one has to take Brinker's place on the list with a truckload of salt.

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Explore Portfolio" is UP 175% vs. S&P500 only up 20% vs. NASDAQ only up 4.6% vs. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway up 71% (All through 6/30/08) (Sample Issue and more info).

If you want to know what I have been buying in this period of weakness with my profit taking dollars from selling when the market was higher, Subscribe to Kirk's Investment Newsletter TODAY and get the October 2008 Issue for FREE!
.

Bob Brinker's June Market Outook

According to newsletter tracker Mark Hulbert, Bob Brinker remains bullish for June 2008. In "Lion or lamb?" Mark wrote:

• Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early June, editor Bob Brinker wrote that his market timing model "remains in favorable territory as we approach the start of the summer season. We continue to expect stock prices to work higher and to achieve new historic highs in the market indexes." Brinker's model portfolios are fully invested.
  .
  [Kirk Comment: Brinker's model portfolios have been fully invested since March 11, 2003. See Bob Brinker's Asset Allocation History. ]

What Mark wrote should be no surprise to anyone who listend to "Moneytalk" last weekend.

For a good summary of what Bob Brinker said on "Moneytalk" last weekend, see: Summary: Bob Brinker's Moneytalk, May 31, 2008. Here are some key excerpts:

• RECESSION CASSANDRAS.... Brinker said: “What we have right in here now is evidence that the Cassandras, who earlier this year, were telling us we were in recession – right now they’ve basically – well I’ll be kind, basically, they look like fools right now. Because all that they’ve accomplished with their talk about recession…………all that they have to show for their efforts is that they scared the people who listened to them out of the stock market this past winter……….”
  .
  [Kirk Comment: See Bob Brinker and NBER Recession Definitions ]
  .
• CORRECTION LOW AND TESTS.... Brinker said: “……..And probably a lot of those people got scared out near the correction lows. The initial correction low in January, which was successfully tested in mid-March, before the market reversed and resumed its uptrend. And basically, if you were to total up all of the accomplishments of the Cassandras, that would be it – that they scared people out of the market during a stock market correction in the first quarter………..Because they have been unable to present any evidence of a recession."
  .
• STOCK MARKET BEARS.... Brinker said: “So what we have here basically, is an example of false prophets and it’s sad. And the reason it’s sad is the damage done. Think of the people that are looking today at the market, S&P at 1400 and they’ve been scared out of the market in the first quarter by these bears………It’s just amazing and yet these people are out there, and these people are not happy, I’m sure, to find themselves out of a rising market since March. To find themselves looking for ever lower prices when in fact we’ve had the opposite.
  .
  So it’s fair for you to say to the Cassandras, where is that recession, where are those millions of lost jobs, where are the two quarters of negative real GDP growth? Where’s the bear market? …………The answer is, they blew it! That is the answer, they blew it. They got caught up in their own negativity and they pronounced that it was all over, it was going to spiral downward and there was no end in sight – and they got it completely backwards.
  .
• More at Summary: Bob Brinker's Moneytalk, May 31, 2008

Kirk's Commentary: I am not a bear but I hate to break the news to Brinker that the S&P500 with dividends reinvested is still down 5.4% YTD as of 6/3/08. It seems a little early to be bashing the bears who may have been in gold, oil and other commodities all this time. The bears didn't suddenly turn bearish at the very bottom either. Most have been making money in other investments all this time and did not suffer the double digit decline in their portfolios like Brinker did on this recent correction.

• Brinker P1 on 10/31/07 = $302,561
• Brinker P1 on 3/31/08 = $252,199
  down $50,362 or down 16.6%
• Brinker P1 on 5/31/08 = $274,501
  down $28,060 or down 9.3%
• Gain required from 3/31/08 to "break-even" with 10/31/07 is $50,362. $50,362 / $252,199 x 100% = 20.0 %

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• Bob Brinker and NBER Recession Definitions

Bob Brinker Still Bullish According to Mark Hulbert

Mark Hulbert reported today that Bob Brinker remains bullish along with the other eight top market timers Mark tracks. The best news is the worst market timers are bearish.

In his article "The best vs. the worst: Best long-term market timers believe we're in a bull market," Mark writes of Bob Brinker:

Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early November, editor Bob Brinker writes: "We continued to believe that there is no risk of a cyclical bear market (a decline of 20% or more as measured by the S&P 500 index (S&P500 chart) in the months ahead ... We expect the stock market to set a series of new record highs into next year." His model portfolios are fully invested.

Mark covers nine of his top market timers and concludes Bob Brinker is not a "lone voice in the wilderness" with his bullishness.

"None of these nine top timers is bearish. The average equity allocation among all nine is 83%. This is down only slightly from where this average stood in recent months."

The best news is the worst market timers Mark Hulbert covers are quite bearish with an average recommended equity weighting of only 9%:

This 83% average is good news for the stock market in its own right, of course. But it's particularly bullish relative to the average forecast of the ten stock market timing newsletters with the very worst risk-adjusted performances over the last decade. The average recommended equity exposure among these worst performers right now is just 9%.

In other words, the worst market timers are quite bearish right now, while the best timers are quite bullish. Rarely are we presented with a contrast this stark.

Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.

Full article by Mark Hulbert: "The best vs. the worst: Best long-term market timers believe we're in a bull market"