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Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Bull vs Bear Case - Neener vs Kass & Brinker

Bob Brinker remains bullish.  Honeybee reported Sunday:
Brinker has been forecasting sizable gains in the S&P for 2010 and the winter of 2011. Back in the March, 2010 issue, Brinker said: "Our 2010 target range for the S&P 500 Index remains in the 1200 to 1260 zone." In May, Brinker raised that to "upper-1200's to low-1300's." He nailed the numbers down a bit more in June and July, forecasting the S&P would reach "the 1275 to 1325 range by next winter."
From today's close of 1051.87, Brinker's 1275 to 1325 estimate for the S&P500 means he is predicting a gain of between 21% and 26%!!!

Charles Neener Predicts DOW 5,000
Charles Neener, former Goldman Sachs technical analyst, was on CNBC today talking about his market advice to avoid stocks and buy bonds.
At the same time...
Doug Kass is bullish. In BTIG Fed Model With VIX Risk Adjustment Kass says
What is extremely noteworthy about this metric in the current environment is that the level of equity undervaluation relative to Treasuries today using this model is equivalent to the extreme levels registered in early March of last year.
BTIG Fed Model
Last weekend Bob Brinker said he remains in the bull camp. Of course, Brinker has been fully invested since March 2003. Two guys who correctly called the recent bear market, Kaas and Neener, now disagree on market direction.
We believe what is happening today is the flip side of what happened in 2000. Just as investors were too enthusiastic then about the growth prospects in the economy, many investors today are far too pessimistic. 
Who do you believe?
Make sure you read all three articles:
  1. Charles Neener Predicts DOW 5,000
  2.  BTIG Fed Model With VIX Risk Adjustment
  3. Siegel and Schwartz Bond Bubble Warning
Closing Data for Aug. 24, 2010:
U.S. Indices
Change
Close
Dow Jones
-133.96
10040.45
NASDAQ
-35.86
2123.76
S&P500
-15.49
1051.87

DOW JONES INDU ^DJI - More charts
S&P 500 - More charts


1 comment:

  1. Thank you for alerting us to the range of views on the stock and bond market.

    ReplyDelete

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