Bull vs Bear Case - Neener vs Kass & Brinker

Bob Brinker remains bullish.  Honeybee reported Sunday:

Brinker has been forecasting sizable gains in the S&P for 2010 and the winter of 2011. Back in the March, 2010 issue, Brinker said: "Our 2010 target range for the S&P 500 Index remains in the 1200 to 1260 zone." In May, Brinker raised that to "upper-1200's to low-1300's." He nailed the numbers down a bit more in June and July, forecasting the S&P would reach "the 1275 to 1325 range by next winter."

From today's close of 1051.87, Brinker's 1275 to 1325 estimate for the S&P500 means he is predicting a gain of between 21% and 26%!!!

Charles Neener Predicts DOW 5,000

Charles Neener, former Goldman Sachs technical analyst, was on CNBC today talking about his market advice to avoid stocks and buy bonds.

At the same time...

Doug Kass is bullish. In BTIG Fed Model With VIX Risk Adjustment Kass says

What is extremely noteworthy about this metric in the current environment is that the level of equity undervaluation relative to Treasuries today using this model is equivalent to the extreme levels registered in early March of last year.

BTIG Fed Model

Last weekend Bob Brinker said he remains in the bull camp. Of course, Brinker has been fully invested since March 2003. Two guys who correctly called the recent bear market, Kaas and Neener, now disagree on market direction.

Make sure you read the Siegel and Schwartz Bond Bubble Warning

We believe what is happening today is the flip side of what happened in 2000. Just as investors were too enthusiastic then about the growth prospects in the economy, many investors today are far too pessimistic. 

Who do you believe?
Make sure you read all three articles:

1. Charles Neener Predicts DOW 5,000
   
2.  BTIG Fed Model With VIX Risk Adjustment
   
3. Siegel and Schwartz Bond Bubble Warning

Closing Data for Aug. 24, 2010:

U.S. Indices	Change	Close
Dow Jones	-133.96	10040.45
NASDAQ	-35.86	2123.76
S&P500	-15.49	1051.87

DOW JONES INDU ^DJI - More charts	S&P 500 - More charts

Doug Kass Market Bottom Call

Jim Cramer & Debra Borchardt discuss the "Doug Kass Bottom Call" on RealMoney TV. I saw Doug say on CNBC TV that the market would make a generational bottom sometime in the next few days just two days before the S&P500 (S&P500 charts) hit 666.76 then rebound to 803.24, up 20.5%.

Jim tells Debra why we should listen to Doug:

"A guy who saw things coming when no one else did is a guy who may see things coming that no one else does."

Jim says listening to Kass is not the same as betting on the guy who got two blackjacks in a row in a card game.

Cramer says he has known Doug for 15 years and Doug has "always been short" so to have Doug say it is a "a generational bottom" is "shocking" and worth paying attention to.
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I prefer to leave market timing to the soothsayers while I beat the markets using "core and explore" investing.

After the markets bottomed in 1998, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" gained 117% in 1999.

After the markets bottomed in 2002, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" gained 77% in 2003.

I look for similar gains after this bear market bottoms . The gains have already started since my portfolio, though down from the peak since I don't pretend to time the markets, is ahead of the S&P500 for both 2008 and 2009.

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" is UP 94% vs. S&P500 DOWN 14% vs. NASDAQ down 28% vs. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) up 37% (All through 12/31/08) (More Info)

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