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Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Bob Brinker's Market Outlook for 2012

From the article "Moneytalk's Bob Brinker's Market Outlook For 2012," Moneytalk host Bob Brinker says:
“In our view, the S&P500 index has the potential to trade into the low-to-mid 1400s range in 2012. On a valuation basis, using our conservative operating earnings estimate of $101 for next year, a price/earnings multiple of 14 would enable the S&P 500 index to reach the low-to-mid 1400s level."
Today the S&P500 closed at 1,265.43 so a gain of 135 points the low 1400s would be a gain of 10.7% from here.
Market Performance (not counting dividends)
14,164.53 1,565.15 2,873.54 865.29 <=MAX
12,291.35 1,265.43 2,625.2 751.31 <= Yesterday
DJIA S&P NASDAQ Russell VTI
CLOSE 500 Comp. 2,000 W5000
12,151.41 1,249.64 2,589.98 735.21 63.96 Today
5.0 % (0.6%) (2.4%) (6.2%) (1.5%) YTD

The article adds
Brinker says: “We continue to rate the market attractive for purchase in the event the index returns to the area of the correction lows in the low-1100s. Above that range we suggest a dollar-cost-average approach for new stock market money.”
and
"All of his Marketimer model portfolios are fully invested."
Before anyone gets too excited, remember that in late 2007 and early 2008 Bob Brinker predicted the market would reach the 1600s and he issued a "gift horse buying opportunity" in the mid 1400s to take advantage of a correction.   See
Brinker has had his model portfolios one and two 100% in equities since March 2003! 

5 comments:

  1. S&P 500 Closes:

    Jan 3, 2011 - 1,271.87
    Dec 28, 2011 - 1,249.64

    It looks like we need to gain 22 points over the next couple of days just to break even for the year.

    I2

    ReplyDelete
  2. I have not listened to a thing BB has said for over a decade. The man has no integrity. Period. Back in 2000-2001 when his investment calls were not going his way he took down the bulletin boards on his website because his subscribers were voicing displeasure. Rather than address their concerns the guy hid. That is inexcusable and I have not given a rats a$$ about the guy ever since. I'm still amazed this thread even gets updates.

    ReplyDelete
  3. It doesn't get updated often but sadly there are still people new to the investment game that are getting conned by Brinker Inc. and signing up for his newsletter in the naive belief that he can time the market. For people who've been following Kirk and Honey who have been systematically exposing the truth about Brinker's market mis-timing moves it is sort of boring, deja vu but for those who don't know da-Brinks real track record it is all too easy to be taken in by the spinmeister.

    [Both posts from facebook "Investing for the long term" discussion forum titled "Bob Brinker Information and Discussion."]

    ReplyDelete
  4. On today's live Moneytalk program, Bob Brinker predicted that during the first half of 2012, equity portfolios will outperform income portfolios. He said that this outlook would only change in the event that his timing model issues a "SELL" signal. He said he had no predictions for the last half of 2012 - that that was too far into the future at this time to have an opinion on the markets.

    Didn't he say the same last year and he was wrong with the S&P500 closing down a tad before dividends?

    ReplyDelete
  5. New:

    Moneytalk Show Summary for Jan 1, 2012
    Caller: This caller noted that 2011 had been a great year for bonds whereas the stock market was flat and asked Bob for his outlook in 2012. Bob........

    ReplyDelete

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