Bulletin, Buy Alert and Market Timer Warnings

First, a market update for today:
(Posted earlier today on Facebook)

Market Update - Special Bulletins and such nonsense.

I heard some scammer who has been a 100% in stocks, fully invested, permabull since 2003 was out today with a "buy signal."

He tried the same crap in late 2007 and 2008 with buys all the way down from 1500s to 800s  with what seemed like a new buy signal every 100 points! 

Finally he gave up when the market was in the 700s and 600s... only to brag about his "buy signals" once the markets eventually got higher than his last buy signal.

The nerve of some people! Now if you had taken profits first like some of us do... then these buy signals can be beneficial.

Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter

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Bob Brinker Market Advice & Marketimer Special Bulletin

This article gives a short update on the stock market followed by an update of Bob Brinker's May investment advice.

Email Alerts for New Articles:  Click "Follow" on the right hand side of this blog and it  (Google Blogger) should send you a FREE alert via email when I publish a new article here.  I am pretty sure it does not send email alerts when I make updates to the articles so I will try to write "check back" if I plan to add to the article.  

Market Update:  The four major US stock indexes I track are all in the green year-to-date (YTD) with the Nasdaq up 7.6% and the Dow only up 0.7%.

This year the market as measured by the S&P 500 had its fourth largest correction of 12% since the secular bull market began in March of 2009.  It would be very bullish if the S&P 500 corrects down to the falling upper dashed green support line then quickly reverses.   

Likewise, it would be very bearish for it to drop below the lower dashed green support line where filling the gap at 20% off the record high would be highly probable. 

Bob Brinker remains firmly in the Bull Camp:

• Bob Brinker did not issue a "Special Bulletin" to take profits before that correction nor did he issue a bulletin to buy when the market was down 12%.
• Since March 2003, Bob Brinker has had his portfolios one and two 100% in equity mutual funds.  See Bob Brinker's Asset Allocation History.
• Brinker continues to favor dollar cost averaging new money into the market "especially during periods of weakness" which he has not defined.
• Brinker says if a "Marketimer buy signal develops" between his monthly newsletters, then he will "post a Special Subscriber Message for access" at his website.   How old fashioned is that?  I send email alerts the same day, usually within hours when I buy or sell something in my portfolio.  Below my newsletter ad is an example.
• Reading between the lines, the fact Brinker only talks about a special message for a "Buy Signal" between monthly newsletters is a clear indication he's firmly in the Bull camp.

Twenty years ago the market was down a similar 10% and Brinker talked extensively about it on his show and in the newsletter.  He even issued a special buy signal just before it fell another 10% to make an official intraday bear market correction.  
Many of my online friends who follow the markets and especially Brinker lost faith in how he handled this miss. That is he didn't discuss why he was wrong or what he learned. 
My guess is the markets look similar today... they've have a huge run up but are not over valued like they were in 2000 but they are highly valued on a PE ratio basis as you can see in my table in my Brinker article "Bob Brinker Stock Market Targets."

Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter

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More articles:

• Bob Brinker Stock Market Targets
• Beware of Annuities
• Winning the Zigs, losing on the Zags - Why small investors usually do poorly
• Make Money In A Flat Market With Asset Allocation & Market Volatility

Market Timer Bob Brinker's Special Bulletins

Marketimer Special Bulletins are Simply a Bob Brinker Marketing Ploy

I am amazed at the thousands of hits per day we're getting here after months of far less. My guess is people who once subscribed to Bob Brinker's Marketimer newsletter got an email alerting them of a Special Bulletin. Rather than pay Brinker for another "Gift Horse Buy" bulletin like he issued in 2007 just before the Stock Market collapsed, they search the internet to see what it is about, perhaps out of curiosity to see if it is again another contrarian indicator or will he flip the coin correctly and get it right this time.

The bottom line is how does it matter?

Brinker has been FULLY INVESTED in the STOCK market with his Portfolios one and two 100% in stocks since March 2003!!!

• See Bob Brinker's Asset Allocation History

For the last few years, he's written "dollar cost average" and "dollar cost average on weakness." When asked how long a periods to dollar cost average, he usually says a year.

A year ago, the S&P500 was above 2100.  Today it is 1918, about 9% lower.

The S&P500 is quite a bit LOWER now than it was a year ago and we've had four periods of even more weakness into the 1800s.

Anyone who cares enough about his advice to PAY for it would be fully invested via dollar cost average or simply lump summing into his portfolios when they subscribed to his newsletter.  A bulletin here to BUY would only be useful as ADVERTISING MATERIAL so he can talk about it if or when the market recovers to the 2100s where he was fully invested and saying "dollar cost average into the market."  If the market crashes like it did when he issued a buy bulletin before the financial collapse, then he'll simply never mention it on the radio, cut off callers who ask about it and talk about his fixed income only portfolio and how well that is doing.

An email alert I got from a money manager who follows Brinker said

"Bob Brinker feels the U.S. is in a “soft patch” and not going into a recession.  He believes the market is going throw (sic) a correction and remains constructive on the stock market."  

Make sure you read my three new articles:

1. Feb. 23 2CS Indicator Back Above 20 After Market Rallies 7.5%
   "In the past two years, buying the S&P500 when the 2CS was under 30 has yielded good results within a few months. Buying when under 20 has produced even better results."
2. Feb 18 SPY Up Sharply Since Sentiment Charts Suggested Another Tradable Low 
3. Feb 11 With SPY Down 14% Again, Sentiment Charts Suggest Another Tradable Low       

Don't fall for his nonsense!    If you want an HONEST newsletter that actually buys stocks when the market is down then takes profits when it is up, I believe there is none better or more honest than Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter Service.  (of course I do!)

Find out what I am buying with the market testing major lows!

Subscribe NOW and get the February 2016 Issue for FREE!!!

 If you don't believe me, come to Facebook and ask some of my subscribers who use real names to follow me.  Brinker couldn't take the heat and stopped live, uncensored interactions with his subscribers after they complained loudly about his awful QQQ advice.  I'm honest and don't have any trouble with current and past subscribers.

• "Detailed summary of Bob Brinker’s QQQ Advice"

Marketimer Special Bulletin - A New Low in Marketing?

We are getting word that Bob Brinker sent out a "special bulletin" to subscribers of his "Marketimer" newsletter as well as those who don't subscribe.

A subscriber tells us that when they logged in they were told "there is no bulletin."

We got an email last night asking us "Does anyone know what Brinkers 8/9/11 bulletin said?" We assume this means news of the bulletin went out to non-subscribers and/or expired subscribers too.

Why send out a bulletin to paying customers then not offer them some insight into the market after it has fallen drastically since telling your audience at much higher levels that you were not selling?

"Of course, the market is now at 1292, a couple of percent higher than when that call came in at the end of June. So this is what happens. If that individual would have sold out at 1270 at that time, he would be faced now with either sitting it out or re-entering at a higher level."   July 31st Advice

We can see why you would advertise a special bulletin to those who did not renew your newsletter. You can hope they will pay again to renew just to see if you advised selling stocks after a huge decline.

Brinker sold AFTER the 1987 Bear Market decline so he has a history of selling near bottoms after big declines. See:

• Bob Brinker's Asset Allocation History.

What we don't understand is why he would risk reminding his current subscribers that he has had nothing to say since bragging about not selling with the S&P500 at 1292 less than two weeks ago? See:

• Moneytalk: August 6 Market Update - July 31st Advice

S&P500 with April 29, 2011 peak

S&P500, DOW & NASDAQ Since April 29, 2011 peak

Click images to see full size graphs