Bulletin, Buy Alert and Market Timer Warnings

First, a market update for today:
(Posted earlier today on Facebook)

Market Update - Special Bulletins and such nonsense.

I heard some scammer who has been a 100% in stocks, fully invested, permabull since 2003 was out today with a "buy signal."

He tried the same crap in late 2007 and 2008 with buys all the way down from 1500s to 800s  with what seemed like a new buy signal every 100 points! 

Finally he gave up when the market was in the 700s and 600s... only to brag about his "buy signals" once the markets eventually got higher than his last buy signal.

The nerve of some people! Now if you had taken profits first like some of us do... then these buy signals can be beneficial.

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Double Bottom Recovery - Market Update

Today the S&P500 recovered all the losses made since it crashed below its 200 day moving average in August. 

 Note the next graphic shows a test of the low to make a "W bottom" followed by a near perfect test from above of the tip "^" of the "W" between the two lows.  

The final image shows how far below the peaks the markets were during at the closing low just over two months ago.

Hopefully you all joined me in:

1. Significant Profit taking before the August crash
2. Significant buying while making and testing the lows
3. Taking some very nice profits NOW that we've recovered.

The final image shows how far below the peaks the markets were during at the closing low just over two months ago.

See:

• Sept. 29: Buying Opportunity: Market Testing August Lows
• Sept 9: Bob Brinker Market Projection & Outlook
• Brinker Moneytalk Radio Show Podcasts and Articles
  

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Brinker Buying Opportunity - Stock Market Testing August Lows

At the start of the month I wrote here that Bob Brinker was looking for a test of the August lows to issue a buy signal.

The initial stage of the current major correction (more than a 10% decline) has taken the S&P 500 Index into the 1800s range. Now that the initial correction stage is completed, Bob expects the S&P to stage a short-term rally which will run out of steam and roll over into a test of the initial bottom area. The establishment of an initial area of a correction bottom, followed by a successful test of the bottom area, is a pattern of market behavior that has occurred many times and has led the market higher going forward.

Brinker's been fully invested since March 2003 so if you follow him, it would only be useful if you inherited or found money and were taking his advice to dollar cost average it into the fully invested position he recommends.

Market Update and comparison to August 25 closing low data.It will be interesting to see if all who said they would buy on a test of the $SPX low are buying now that we are there. $SPY $DIA
Posted by Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter on Monday, September 28, 2015

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IF Bob Brinker gives the buy signal on this "test" of the lows described on my facebook page yesterday, AND you are following his advice, THEN you would stop your "dollar cost average program of new money" and "lump sum" it into the market right away.

I took very significant profits when the markets were higher and put some into the market including when we made the lows last month.  

If you are interested in what I am buying or selling now for my "Explore Portfolio" then subscribe to my newsletter:

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Intel Buying Opportunity - Bob Brinker's Favorite Trading Stock

Do you remember the days when Bob Brinker called Intel  (INTC Charts & Quote)  his "Favorite trading stock?"

I posted last week at "Good News for Intel Stock"that I bought some Intel for $25.

During the mini "Flash Crash" on August 24, 2015 I got some shares of Intel for $25.00 using a "Buy Limit Order" I had placed some time ago just for for this sort of event.  At $28.41 today, Intel is up 14% already.   

 

Today we had some nice "follow through" with the S&P500 (see 2 minute chart below) that makes me think anyone who was waiting for a "test of the lows" to pick up cheap stocks is out of luck.

If you had cash you wanted to add to the markets, hopefully you used some at the lower prices we saw during late August.

More Intel Charts

I'm sure happy with my purchase of Intel that is up almost 20% already!  This could be good news with semiconductors and semiconductor capital equipment stocks taking the leadership roll after this correction. 

During the downturn, I added to several semiconductors and semiconductor capital equipment stock positions in my Newsletter Explore Portfolio.  Some are up considerably while others are just up a fraction thus I BELIEVE it is not too late to buy.

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• See Bob Brinker's Asset Allocation History
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Bob Brinker's Last Buying Opportunity

Bob Brinker's last "Buying Opportunity" was issued via a bulletin to his subscribers on September 22, 2011.  It read:

September 22, 2011
S&P 500 Index: 1129.56  

In the September edition of Marketimer we continued to recommend a dollar-cost-average on market weakness approach for subscribers looking to add to their stock market holdings. We also stated that in the event an attractive buying opportunity developed between regular monthly investment letter editions, we would post a Special Subscriber Message on the website for subscriber access.  

In our view, the conditions are now in place to justify an upgrade of our stock market view to "attractive for purchase" for subscribers looking for an opportunity to invest new money into the market at attractive prices.  

Following any additional backing and filling that may occur within the vicinity of the recent correction lows, we anticipate that the market will transition into a renewed uptrend based on our corporate earnings outlook into next year. In our view, the S&P 500 Index has the potential to trade into the low-to-mid 1400s range in 2012. 

That was a good time to buy, of course with the markets near record all-time highs, any time in the past has worked out as a great time to buy, even if you bought at the last tops and reinvested dividends.  

With the markets very near their record highs, I can see why he's worried now, but you have to wonder why he missed 1278 and 1353 in 2012 or even a "gift horse buy" at the start of 2013 before the market gained over 32%.

IF you look at a long-term trend chart of the S&P500 on a log scale, you can make a case to say it is about in the middle of its long-term trading range.  Thus my advice is dollar cost average into an appropriate asset allocation for your age.

I can also see why he has remained fully invested since March 2003.  He knows he doesn't add value with his timing.

My advice is ignore all of Brinker's market timing hocus pocus.  If he could really time the stock market, then he

• would not have missed the greatest bear market since the Great Depression by issuing a "Gift Horse Buying Opportunity" in the mid 1400s as the market began its plunge from the 1500s to 666.  See Bob Brinker's Asset Allocation History
• Would not have told subscribers to invest up to half their cash reserves into the NASDAQ just before it fell by over 80%.  See Effect of QQQ Advice on Reported Model Portfolio Results

Follow his advice to use low cost index funds then rebalance once a year at a minimum as I recommend in my newsletters.

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