Bob Norton has udated the "Bob Brinker Shadow Long Term Stock Market Timing Model" and reports it "remains in favorable territory as we move into February, 2008."
This is a "A Special Report" by Bob Norton for Bob Brinker Fan Club readers. You can read the whole report here.
The "Shadow" Long Term Stock Market Timing Model now has 3 bullish indicators and one neutral.
Bob also swrites:
- "I believe we are in the process of forming a bottom in the S&P, possibly within the general level of 1275-1300. The fact that we are presently at 1395 is great news, but it would seem too easy to conclude that we would move straight up to the mid 1500s without some probing and testing of the recent bottom. Watch for a test of the 1275-1300 level. Hopefully selling pressure will be exhausted, and will confirm the march toward the mid 1500 recovery area later in the year.Perhaps Bob Brinker may issue yet ANOTHER buying opportunity in this retest area!"
I wrote:
- It is a coin toss at best. If you study Brinker's "gift horse" and "MOABO" buy levels through history, about half of them hit and half miss. Bob Brinker issued a buy under 1380 in 2007 after the market rose above that level to go on and make new highs. When the market was in the mid 1500's without a drop again below 1380, Brinker raised his lump sum buy level to the"mid 1400's. After that, the market crashed to the "low 1300's or about 18% from intraday peak to bottom, so far. Brinker took that mid 1400's buy level off via a special bulletin when the market was at 1325. At that price, he said to once again dollar cost average while he attempts to "identify a bottom." I prefer to use asset allocation which had me taking profits when the market was in the 1500's and has had me buying stocks these past weeks at lower than current prices.
This is a "A Special Report" by Bob Norton for Bob Brinker Fan Club readers. You can read the whole report here.
Read Bob's full report to see if you agree with his conclusion and update on the four basic model indicators:
- Valuation
- Monetary
- Sentiment
- Economic Cycle
Then give Bob your feedback on this in our Bob Brinker Free Discussion Forum at facebook's "Investing for the Long Term" group.
If you want updates on what Brinker is saying on Moneytalk delivered to your email box, often within 24 hours after Sunday's show, then follow the instructions at the Bob Brinker Fan Club.
Click Bob Norton for more articles by Bob Norton.
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One of Bob Brinker's key "sentiment indicators" is the Investors' Intellegence survey data of Bulls minus Bears. One of the oldest weekly sentiment indicators is the “Investors Intelligence Survey“ or IIS. The IIS began in January 1963 by A.W. Cohen and has been published every week ever since. Graphs of the Investors' Intellegence survey data of Bulls minus Bears versus the market are key sentiment indicators for stock market technical analysis.
