I normally don't put too much weight in the year-ahead forecasts that investment advisers circulate every December.I don't know what Mark Hulbert was smoking to award Brinker the "Honor Roll" after he missed the biggest bear market since the Great Depression and issued at "gift horse buying opportunity" near the very top in the mid 1400s.
But I make an exception when it comes to the newsletters on the Hulbert Financial Digest's Newsletter Honor Roll for 2010. Making it onto that Honor Roll requires jumping over a number of demanding hurdles; merely beating the market won't do. Instead, to make it onto the Honor Roll, a newsletter had to have above-average performance both in up and down markets.
Bob Brinker's Marketimer. Brinker in his most recent issue wrote: "Based on our earnings estimate for next year and our fair value price/earnings ratio of 16 to 17 times operating earnings, we estimate upside potential for the S&P 500 index (Quote and chart) into next year in the 1170 to 1240 range." That upside potential represents a gain from current levels of between 6% and 13%; his model portfolios are fully invested.
In November 2007 I wrote this article: Bob Brinker Still Bullish According to Mark Hulbert that said:
In his article "The best vs. the worst: Best long-term market timers believe we're in a bull market," Mark writes of Bob Brinker:I am not alone with my amazement as the comments on the article show. Here is a sampling:Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early November, editor Bob Brinker writes: "We continued to believe that there is no risk of a cyclical bear market (a decline of 20% or more as measured by the S&P 500 index (S&P500 chart) in the months ahead ... We expect the stock market to set a series of new record highs into next year." His model portfolios are fully invested.Mark covers nine of his top market timers and concludes Bob Brinker is not a "lone voice in the wilderness" with his bullishness.
slee915 10 hours ago
This article loses all credibility as soon as it mentions Bob Brinker's Market Timer is in the Honor Roll. C'mon Mark, Bob stayed FULLY INVESTED through the last bear market.G-ron 1 hour ago
Not sure how Brinker is on the honor roll because he totally ignored the financial crisis. Barely mentioned it as well as ignoring it in his timing. Hulbert added nothing in this post but that said he still has something to say worth reading from time to time. In my mind it is more important who he has left out of his survey than who he has included.MexicanBatman 44 minutes ago
My criticism is with the method and not with the conclusion which I think has a higher probability of being right than wrong.
I have to agree with slee and G-ron. Brinker was fully invested during the recent power dive. I can't imagine any newsletter subscriber believing they got their money's worth... [clip]honeybee2 16 minutes ago
I think that Bob got on Mark's list because he did have a good call in 2000-2001 to get out of the market... but Mark doesn't consider Brinker's cocky "QQQQ counter trend rally" which he advised people to buy the Q's and never told people to dump them as we slid into the great dot-com abyss. There are scores of web pages complaining about call....
Bob didn't count that QQQQ "free advice to everuone, not just subsctibers" as part of his model portfolio,,, I supect this sleight of hand is why Brinker is on Mark's list...
Mark Hulbert never reported the following facts about Bob Brinker. Not only did Bob Brinker remain fully invested for the 2008-2009 megabear ride, but he advised all new money in at ever lower levels as the market fell:More info:
January 4, 2008: Buy S&P 500 in the mid 1400s.
February 10, 2008: Buy S&P 500 in the low 1300s.
August 5, 2008: Buy S&P 500 at 1240 or less.
September 2, 2008: Buy S&P 500 in low-to-mid 1200s
September 16, 2008: Prior buy signal rescinded, dollar cost average recommended
January 15, 2009: Buy S&P 500 low-to-mid 800s
March 5, 2009: Waiting for retest of the lows -- missed the March 9th bottom.
In 2008, Bob Brinker's Model Portfolio I lost 39.7%; Model Portfolio II lost 37.4%; and Model Portfolio III (balanced) lost 23.9%.
- Bob Brinker Marketimer 2008 Performance Numbers
- Mark Hulbert Reviews '08 Forecasts - Bob Brinker Bullish
- => Bob Brinker's QQQ Advice
- => Effect of QQQ advice on reported results
- S&P 500 index (Quote and chart)
In 2009, "Kirk's Newsletter Explore Portfolio" gained 33.5% vs. the DJIA up 18.8%