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Saturday, August 16, 2008

For Brinker, Three Strikes Is Not An Out

How many people have money left over for a new buy level after three "all in buys" at 1380, the mid 1400s and low 1300s?

3-strikes is not an out for Bob Brinker
Click charts courtesy of stockcharts.com for full size images

Bob Brinker has been recommending a "fully invested" position in the stock market since March 2003. (See Bob Brinker's Asset Allocation History.)

We can only speculate why Bob Brinker keeps giving "all in" buy levels. How useful are new buy levels every time the market drops?

Since March 2003, Brinker has recommended investors be FULLY INVESTED in the stock market. If they get any "new money" say from winning the lottery or a big inheritance, then they are to dollar cost average that money into the market except for when the market drops into one of his "BUY ZONES" where he recommends a lump sum (immediate) investment in equities. Here are some of my ideas why he has given four "all in buys" in the past 18 months without a single "take profits" or sell signal.
  • His subscribers have a short memory and only remember the latest buy level so he will eventually look brilliant to some of them.

  • He has a high turnover of subscribers when he has periods of poor market timing. Since he does not talk about past mistakes in detail in his newsletter, new subscribers have no idea his prior buy levels were a bust nor do they know he was advising a fully invested position through the latest bear market from its peak at 1565. To them, he might look like he called the bottom should one of the buy levels turn out to be a bear market bottom.

  • His 8 page Marketimer newsletter has three pages of new text each month with the remaining 5 pages filled with performance tables. Perhaps Brinker can't find anything else to write about to fill the three pages of new text each month.
Did I miss any?

Feel free to use to comments section to add your ideas.

2 comments:

  1. Bob Brinker was calling for new highs when the S&P was at 1527, and hawking "buy on every opportunity in the mid-1400's" when he totally missed the correction that began in January.

    Then Brinker was calling a new correction-bottom (low-1300s) when he missed the BEAR market that hit full force in July.

    On Moneytalk, April 19, 2008 , Brinker said this: "...........if you are looking for the market into 2009, then obviously, you should be feeling pretty good about your stock market portfolio. Because not only has it shown a very nice advance since the correction lows in March.......but in addition to that, I think it has a lot further to go. And I continue to expect, as I have said, that we will see new all-time-historic-record highs in the S&P 500 Index."

    As of now, Brinker has refused to acknowledge (on Moneytalk or Marketimer) that the stock market ever reached BEAR territory in July -- after he called the bottom. Indeed, like a bull-in-a-china shop he simply issued a lower buy level and wiped out all evidence that shows (in my opinion) his biggest blunders ever!

    Yes, EVER! His biggest, most blatant cover-ups of all time have occurred this year!

    http://honeysbobbrinkerbeehivebuzz2.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  2. Since brinker's screeners will not allow a "market" question anymore (wonder why) - we need to try to ask him a market question by telling screener something else.

    ReplyDelete

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