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Saturday, October 11, 2008

Mark Hulbert on Timer Digest and No Load Fund Investor

Timer Digest and No Load Fund Investor have excellent long term records. In the Barrons's Online article What the Best Market Timers Are Saying Mark Hulbert reports only three of the top nine market timers he follows are bullish or on the bearish side of neutral but their average equity allocation is 59%. Mark Reports:
No Load Fund Investor: Neutral to moderately bullish. Editor Mark Salzinger wrote in early October that he has resisted the urge to sell into this downtrend, and is maintaining his asset allocation recommendations. For his so-called "Wealth Builder" portfolio, his letter's most aggressive, that allocation is 70% to U.S. equities and another 15% to international stocks. [85% total in equities]

Kirk Comment: My most aggressive portfolio is 80% equities and 20% in fixed income.

Timer Digest: Bearish: Editor Jim Schmidt bases this newsletter's market timing model on a consensus of the top market timers. His consensus of the top ten based on performance over the last 52 weeks is bearish, with 1 bull, 7 bears, and 2 neutral. His consensus of the top ten for performance over the last two years is bearish, with all ten newsletters bearish. However, in his latest issue, dated October 6, Schmidt wrote: "The deeper the financial markets fall, the greater the inevitable rally will be and the longer the new bull market will last. Meanwhile, it has been said that the average investor is currently behaving like a deer in the head lights during this crisis." The newsletter's model portfolios currently are about 90% invested in stocks, on average.
From Mark Hulbert's 8/31/2008 newsletter showing his list of the top mutual fund newsletters (27 total eligible) for total returns for the last 15 years:
  1. No-Load Fund-x = 13.9%
  2. Equity Fund Outlook = 13.8%
  3. Timer Digest = 11.8%
  4. All Star Fund Trader = 11.4%
  5. Bob Brinker's Marketimer = 10.3%

    Wilshire5000 9.0%
On Pg 3 of the March 2008 issue of "The Hulbert Financial Digest" that reviews Brinker's newsletter, Mark Hulbert wrote:
"Please note: In late 2000, Brinker forecasted a several-month bear market rally and recommended an investment in the NASDAQ 100 Index—a trade that turned out quite unprofitably. However, because Brinker at the time of making this forecast chose not to make this trade part of his model portfolios, his HFD record has not suffered as a result."
So one has to take Brinker's place on the list with a truckload of salt.

Since 12/31/98 "Kirk's Explore Portfolio" is UP 175% vs. S&P500 only up 20% vs. NASDAQ only up 4.6% vs. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway up 71% (All through 6/30/08) (Sample Issue and more info).

If you want to know what I have been buying in this period of weakness with my profit taking dollars from selling when the market was higher, Subscribe to Kirk's Investment Newsletter TODAY and get the October 2008 Issue for FREE!
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