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Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Bob Brinker and Jim Rogers Differing Opinion on US Treasuries

This weekend Moneytalk host Bob Brinker was asked if the US could default on its debt.  He told the caller they won't default because they won't be able to issue more debt and it would be all over and  "I will say this, if the United States defaults on its debt, I can't give you any reason why anybody in the world should lend a penny to the United States Treasury.....If they actually do that, I can't give you any reason why anybody should invest in a US Treasury." 

A caller asked Brinker if owning US Treasuries was save given the uncertainties with the debt ceiling.  Brinker said he personally doesn't own any US Treasury debt but he would not make a decision to sell or hold based on this debt ceiling issue.

Jim Rogers, the man who correctly predicted the boom in commodities and told Maria Bartiromo on TV years ago to buy farm land in the US, has a completely different view than Bob Brinker .  
Published on Mon, May 23, 2011 at 13:00
Though now known primarily for his bullishness about commodities and China, he has had other investment passions. He was a champion of emerging markets in the 1980s, from Austria to Argentina to the Ivory Coast.
...
Rogers also timed the US property market almost perfectly convinced a bubble had built there. He and Parker sold their home on Riverside Drive, a deal for USD $16 million that closed in December 2007. He had bought the home in January 1977 for USD $1,806,000, at a time the city teetered on bankruptcy and was at its nadir. "They were giving things away," he recalls.
...
Rogers says he is currently long on commodities and currencies, having started to buy the US dollar in the form of Treasury bills in November 2009.
....
He believes the current correction in commodities is a short-term blip in their upward run. That may have years to continue, just as the 1987 crash was a brief respite in a decade-long bull run for stocks.

"What will probably happen is that I will sell my commodities, and they'll double again, then I'll sell them short, then they'll double again because all bubbles go up farther than you expect," he says. "And then, if I don`t get wiped out, they'll fall and I'll make some money."
I find Roger's honesty, compared to Brinker's radio informercial to promote "Moneytalk on Demand" and his "Marketimer" newsletter, refreshing.


Note, I am NOT saying if I agree or disagree with either Brinker or Roger's here.   I am just reporting facts.  You'll have to subscribe to one of my two newsletters to get my opinion on what to do with your fixed income, which depends on your risk tolerance.

BTW, you can save "Moneytalk On Demand" fees by downloading the show for free at the KGO radio archives.

  1. Right click 1 - 2 p.m. then "Save Link as" somewhere on your hard drive
  2. Right click 2 - 3 p.m. then "Save Link as" somewhere on your hard drive
  3. Right click 3 - 4 p.m. then "Save Link as" somewhere on your hard drive
Then listen to it from your hard drive when you have time.

Brinker's guest was Andres Ross Sorkin, author of the book "Too Big to Fail."  The movie debuted on HBO which I recorded on my DVR but have not had time to watch yet.  If anyone would like to write a review of the movie, I'd be happy to publish it here.

Too Big to Fail

"Sorkin's prodigious reporting and lively writing put the reader in the room for some of the biggest-dollar conference calls in history. It's an entertaining book, brisk book...Sorkin skillfully captures the raucous enthusiasm and riotous greed that fueled this rational irrationality." -The New York Times Book Review

"Sorkin's densely detailed and astonishing narrative of the epic financial crisis of 2008 is an extraordinary achievement that will be hard to surpass as the definitive account...as a dramatic close-up, his book is hard to beat." -Financial Times 

1 comment:

  1. I saw too big to fail. I thought it was well worth watching. It was a bit slow at times, but it captured how close we were to teetering off the edge of the cliff. It was also basically non-partisan in nature which I liked. Who they ever got to play Nancy Pelosi was amazing. She was a clone of the real Nancy Pelosi. Well worth watching. My fear is we are entering this same scenario with our national debt and no one is really paying attention. But, everyone should see the movie.

    Mark

    ReplyDelete

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