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Friday, June 27, 2008

Jim Cramer Says Sell Everything

Will Bob Brinker bash Jim Cramer's advice to sell everything this weekend or will he wait for the markets to recover sometime in the future for his typical "Bad News Bears" Bashing as reported in "Bob Brinker Fan Club Market Update - DOW down 19%?"

CNBC's mega-star Jim Cramer says "Sell Everything!" in "Cramer: The Way Ahead Is Down"

Click this chart courtesy of stockcharts.com to see the S&P500 vs. the price of oil ($WTIC) since last summer:

As of this minute, oil futures are trading at $142.57 and Gold is up $16 to $931.60 on fears of inflation.

Excerpts from Cramer's 06/27/08 - 07:11 AM EDT article:
"Sell everything. Nothing's working. Revisit when the prices are adjusted for a big recession, soaring inflation and a crushed consumer. Sell at 12,000 and come back at 10,000. Even better: short it. "
I wonder where Cramer gets off saying sell at 12,000 when the DOW was already 600 points lower and his article was posted today!

and
"The negativity coming into today's session is as thick as I can recall nearing most short-term bottoms. The issue is there is not enough fear out there. Despite the consensus, which obviously creates a need for lower prices before it is worth buying, there isn't a big spike in the VIX, there isn't a gap down, or a crescendo of selling. There isn't even any volume. So while the bearishness is real thick, the selling isn't."
and
"I think we lack a climax because we haven't had a climax, some session where people can say, "I don't care how much lower GM goes, I know it is a buy." Same with Citigroup. "
and
"All my indicators say that it is extremely dangerous to short here: oscillators, attitudes, polls. They haven't worked either -- or yet. I think the palpable gloom simply does one thing -- it'll be a stair-step down rather than a cascade, where you can make a little money when you are on the stair but then give it back on the next step, until we get to some level that better reflects a GM bankruptcy or a Citigroup collapse, one or the other, or both."
Market Summary:
.DJIA = 11,379.73 -73.69 @ 1:00 pm EST
.NASDAQ = 2,308.05 -13.32 @ 1:00 pm EST
.S&P500 = 1,280.24 -2.91 @ 1:00 pm EST
Who is right? Who will be right? Discuss both men at our facebook discussion forums for:
Bob Brinker and Jim Cramer
.

Thursday, June 26, 2008

Bob Brinker Fan Club Market Update - DOW down 19%

Bob Brinker has remained bullish and fully invested since March 2003. According to Bob Norton's June 21st "Bob Brinker Shadow Stock Market Timing Model," the model remains bullish as it tests recent March lows that were 20.2% off the all time highs.

A year ago, Bob Brinker wrote (see July 7-8, 2007 Recap) there is "no risk" of a bear market occurring this year.

As of today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA or DOW) is 19.1% off its all time, October 2007 high on a closing basis and 19.8% off its overall all time high. Bob's "Bad News Bears" are close, but still no cigars.

Market Statistics for 06/26/08

S&P 500 Chart (Using Intraday prices):
Last Market High 10/11/07 at 1,576.09
Last Market low 03/17/08 at 1,256.98
Current S&P500 Price 1,283.15
Decline in Pts 292.94
Decline in % 18.6%
Max Decline 20.2%

This means the correction from intraday high to intraday low is 20.2% and we are currently 18.6% off the peak.

The decline in the S&P500 from the high to the low on a closing basis is 18.6%
DJIA Chart (Using Intraday prices):
Last Market High 10/11/07 at 14,279.96
Last Market Low 06/26/08 at 11,453.42
Current DJIA Price 11,453.42
Decline in Pts 2826.54
Decline in % 19.8%
Max Decline 19.8%

This means the correction from high to low has been 19.8% and we are currently 19.8% off the peak.

The decline in the DOW off the high on a closing basis has been 19.1%
NASDAQ Chart (Using Intraday prices):
Last Market High 10/31/07 at 2,861.51
Last Market Low 03/17/08 at 2,155.42
Current NASDAQ Price 2,321.37
Decline in Pts 540.14
Decline in % 18.9%
Max Decline 24.7%

This means the correction from high to low has been 24.7% and we are currently 18.9% off the peak.

The decline off the high on a closing basis has been 24.1%

From Bob Brinker's Asset Allocation History
June 2007 Marketimer: "In our view, the valuation based secular bear market that was established following the March, 2000 closing high for the S&P500 index (1527.46). and following the January, 2000 closing high for the DJIA (11723), reached its conclusion on June 13, 2006 at the bottom of the mid-term off-presidential election year correction."
Excerpt from Mark Hulbert's June 2, 2008 Marketwatch article:
"Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early June, editor Bob Brinker wrote that his market timing model "remains in favorable territory as we approach the start of the summer season. We continue to expect stock prices to work higher and to achieve new historic highs in the market indexes. Brinker's model portfolios are fully invested."
From Honeybee's May 31, 2008 Moneytalk Summary excerpts:

So what we have here basically, is an example of false prophets and it’s sad. And the reason it’s sad is the damage done. Think of the people that are looking today at the market, S&P at 1400 and they’ve been scared out of the market in the first quarter by these bears………It’s just amazing and yet these people are out there, and these people are not happy, I’m sure, to find themselves out of a rising market since March. To find themselves looking for ever lower prices when in fact we’ve had the opposite.
.

We’ve had the market rising since mid-March. It’s rather significant when you stop to think about it. If you go back to mid-March and you take a look at the S&P 500 Index since mid-March, right now you have a total return, including cash dividends of about 10 1/2%.....................So it’s fair for you to say to the Cassandras, where is that recession, where are those millions of lost jobs, where are the two quarters of negative real GDP growth? Where’s the bear market? …………The answer is, they blew it! That is the answer, they blew it. They got caught up in their own negativity and they pronounced that it was all over, it was going to spiral downward and there was no end in sight – and they got it completely backwards. Truly amazing to see, and sad to see the people that are harmed by such unjustified negativity.

Reality:

It is nice to see what looks like the start of rotation into technology stocks in the QQQQ as it has fallen less YTD than the DOW or S&P500.

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    .
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Saturday, June 14, 2008

GNMA or “Ginnie Mae” Advice

Bob Brinker loves to talk about his favorite GNMA fund from Vanguard, VFIIX (Charts for VFIIX.) He has had a near constant GNMA position in his newsletter portfolio #3 for what seems like ages. Brinker likes Ginnie Maes for their slightly higher income and greater safety compared to a more diversified Total Bond Fund.
Brinker cautions his audience that there is some capital variation of about 5% around an average price of $10. Thus, GNMAs are not for "CD Investors" [they should read Best CD Rates] who can't stand to see their net asset value decline perhaps 10% when rates go up a couple of percent in a short period of time. For those like me who profit from the volatility of equities AND fixed income investments, Brinker's favorite GNMA fund is a great way to profit from normal market volatility.

Today on our GNMA forum in the "Investing for the Long Term" group, Willamae F. asked the following:
  • "GNMA prices have dropped rapidly, interest rates have risen. Do you all expect this to continue?"
Here is a chart of the fund she speaks of:


My answer:
  • Timing the bond market is as tough as the stock market. I like buying GNMAs for my personal and newsletter explore portfolios when interest rates make big moves up and we get prices near $10 on my favorite GNMA mutual fund.

    I will probably add some more $ if I see a fat pitch but I'll announce that to my subscribers before I post about it on free forums.

    Currently the fund I like is trading at $10.11

    Lets look at how it has worked out for my explore portfolio

    I established my GNMA position about 2 yrs ago (4/17/06) when I bought $10,000 worth at $10.09 when rates were 5.11%... nice returns on that even if the fund itself is only up two cents.

    I bought $10,000 more a few months later (6/29/06) at $9.93 when rates were at 5.25%. Getting 5.25% plus 18¢ of capital appreciation (1.8% extra) gives me about 6% a year... not too shabby for a SAFE fixed income investment.

    IF you think the data that shows inflation has doubled from about 1.9% on average two years ago to its current rate of over 4% will continue to get worse, then you don't want to be a buyer of bond funds.

    But if you think the inflation scare is temporary and part of the economic cycle, then there should be a very good buying opportunity between now and the near future.

  • Also, it is hard to catch a falling knife so a dollar cost average approach like I used to establish my position two years ago often works well. I often wait for falling knives to hit the table and bounce... hoping they don't bounce onto the floor. If they do bounce up then fall lower, that is where having a second buy target makes sense.
From Vanguard:
  • The fund invests at least 80% of its assets in Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA or “Ginnie Mae”) pass-through certificates, which are fixed income securities representing part ownership in a pool of mortgage loans supported by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. The balance of the fund’s assets may be invested in U.S. Treasury or other U.S. government agency securities, as well as in repurchase agreements collateralized by such securities. Securities issued by most U.S. government agencies, other than the U.S. Treasury and GNMA, are neither guaranteed by the United States Treasury nor supported by the full faith and credit of the U.S. Government. The fund’s dollar-weighted average maturity depends on homeowner prepayments of the underlying mortgages. While the fund does not observe specific maturity guidelines, the fund’s dollar-weighted average maturity will normally fall within an intermediate-term range (3 to 10 years).
My Returns 1/1/1999 through 05/31/08:

My "70:30 Explore Portfolio" was up 198.7% or 12.3% compound annual return.
  • $100,000 invested 1/1/99 became $298,674
  • Subscribe TODAY and get the June 2008 issue for FREE!
My "50:50 Conservative Core Portfolio" was up 72.5% or 6.0% compound annual return.
  • $100,000 invested 1/1/99 became $172,470
My "80:20 Aggressive Core Portfolio" was up 72.3% or 5.9% compound annual return.
  • $100,000 invested 1/1/99 became $172,261
VFINX (S&P500) was up 31.7% or 3.0% compound annual return.
  • $100,000 invested 1/1/99 became $131,745
Vanguard's Money Market Fund was up 38.8% or 3.5% compound annual return.
  • $100,000 invested 1/1/99 became $138,784

To find out how I've profited greatly from these difficult market conditions over the past decade, subscribe to "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Newsletter" today!

Friday, June 13, 2008

Bob Brinker, May Inflation and GDP Growth

The US Labor Department reported today that May CPI inflation was up 4.2% over the May 2007 level. The components of CPI with the largest gains were:
This graph of the year over year percent change in the unadjusted CPI data shows inflation is anything but low on an historical basis.

[Click graphs to see larger images]


Bob Brinker said:
The other day, Larry Kudlow (CNBC) put up a chart of inflation for the past years. A few years ago when energy prices were low and the economy was growing at about 3%, inflation was about 1.9% on average. Since then, energy prices have soared, our economy has slowed to a near standstill and yet inflation has MORE than doubled!
  • ==>"The CPI is up 4.2% in the past year and has risen at a 4.9% annual pace over the past three months. "
The Fed lowered rates to help save our banking industry from the mess the idiots at the helm of places like Citibank, Wachovia, Bear Strearns, Lehman, etc. made. Those rate cuts caused the dollar to crash which has made inflation as measured in things like Gold or oil soar to hyper inflationary rates... but we don't see hyper inflation here because we measure inflation in dollars.

Economic growth has nearly vanished as we crawl along with less than 1.0% GDP growth while our inflation has doubled over the very low rate of inflation we had just a few years ago when economic growth was 3 to 5% and oil was less than half what it is today.

This final chart from my friends at Martin Capital show CPI inflation is not low as Brinker claims. Furthermore, it shows producer price inflation is even worse which puts a strain on profits and explains part of the downward revisions in S&P500 earnings estimates since companies are reluctant to raise prices now to pass on inflation to their customers. If the economy improves, then this "inflation debt" will eventually get passed to customers through higher prices since companies are in business to make money.


The chart of yearly change in CPI inflation (dark green curve on the chart) shows inflation is near a 10-year high. The price of oil has more than doubled in the past year which has caused inflation to roughly double from low 2% to a 4.9% annual pace over the last three months!

The good news is the Federal Reserve and ECRI both expect inflation to moderate since very few expect the price of oil to double again in the next year from the current level of $135/barrel. My "Inflation Expectation" chart of the 10-year US Treasury rate minus the 10-year TIPs rate show bond investors expect long term inflation to run about 2.53%.

Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Bob Brinker's Recommended Reading List

These are the best of the best books on Bob Brinker's reading list.

Common Sense on Mutual Funds: New Imperatives for the Intelligent Investor
by John C. Bogle

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
by Charles Mackay

What Wall Street Doesn't Want You to Know : How You Can Build Real Wealth Investing in Index Funds
Larry E. Swedroe
(My core portfolios are all made of index funds. I've had some good discussions about my methods with Larry and he approves of my method)

The Intelligent Investor
by Benjamin Graham, Warren E. Buffett (Preface)
A MUST READ for every equity investor.

Where Are the Customer's Yachts?, Or, a Good Hard Look at Wall Street
by Fred Schwed, Peter Arno(Illustrator)
Everyone who uses a stock broker should read this NOW!



These are the others I rank as excellent

A Random Walk Down Wall Street
by Burton G. Malkiel

Against the Gods, The Remarkable Story of Risk
by Peter L. Bernstein

All About Index Funds
Richard A. Ferri

Asset Allocation: Balancing Financial Risk
by Roger C. Gibson

Bogle on Mutual Funds: New Perspectives for the Intelligent Investor
by John C. Bogle

Confessions of a Wall Street Analyst : A True Story of Inside Information and Corruption in the Stock Market
Daniel Reingold, Jennifer Reingold

David Scott's Guide to Investing in Bonds
David L. Scott

David Scott's Guide to Investing in Mutual Funds
David L. Scott

Dictionary of Finance and Investment Terms (Barron's Financial Guides)
by John Downes (Preface), Jordan Elliot Goodman (Preface)

Die Broke
by Stephen Pollan

Economics for Real People: An Introduction to the Austrian School
Gene Callahan

Estate Planning and Administration: How to Maximize Assets, Minimize Taxes, and Protect Loved Ones
by Edmund T. Flemming



Fooled by Randomness : The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
Nassim Nicholas Taleb

iCon Steve Jobs : The Greatest Second Act in the History of Business
Jeffrey S. Young, William L. Simon

Investors and Markets: Portfolio Choices, Asset Prices, and Investment Advice
William F. Sharpe
(I have an autographed copy of this excellent book by Bill Sharpe)

Irrational Exuberence
Robert J. Shiller
A regular on CNBC's "Kudlow and Company"

Jesse Livermore: World's Greatest Stock Trader
Richard Smitten

One Up on Wall Street : How to Use What You Already Know to Make Money in the Market
by Peter Lynch, John Rothchild (Contributor)

Rational Investing in Irrational Times : How to Avoid the Costly Mistakes Even Smart People Make Today
Larry E. Swedroe

Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
by Edwin Lefevre

Seven Habits of Highly Effective People
Stephen R. Covey
(I took the multi day Covey seminar of the same title when I an HP project leader. It is excellent.)

Stocks for the Long Run: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and Long-Term Investment Strategies
by Jeremy J. Siegel & Peter L. Bernstein

The Best Way to Save for College : A Complete Guide to 529 Plans
by Joseph F. Hurley

The Black Swan
Nassim Nicholas Taleb

The Bond Bible
by Marilyn Cohen, Nick Watson (Contributor)

The Bond Book
by Annette Thau
(I've had this on my recommended reading list for years)

The Four Pillars of Investing
William J. Bernstein

The Intelligent Asset Allocator: How to Build Your Portfolio to Maximize Returns and Minimize Risk
by William J. Bernstein

The Little Book of Common Sense Investing
John C. Bogle

The Money Game
by Adam Smith

The New Book of Trusts
by Leimberg Plotnick & Miller Plotnick

The Only Guide to a Winning Bond Strategy You'll Ever Need
Larry E. Swedroe, Joe H. Hempen

The Only Guide to a Winning Investment Strategy You'll Ever Need
Larry E. Swedroe

The Random Walk Guide to Investing: Ten Rules for Financial Success
Burton G. Malkiel

Unconventional Success : A Fundamental Approach to Personal Investment
David F. Swensen

Wall Street Words: An Essential A to Z Guide for Today's Investor
by David Logan Scott

Wealth, War and Wisdom
Barton Biggs

Winning the Losers Game: Timeless Strategies for Successful Investing
by Charles D. Ellis

You're Fifty--Now What? Investing for the Second Half of Your Life
by Charles R. Schwab

You're Retired, Now What? Money Skills for a Comfortable Retirement
by Ronald M. Yolles, Murray Yolles

Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Bob Brinker's June Market Outook

According to newsletter tracker Mark Hulbert, Bob Brinker remains bullish for June 2008. In "Lion or lamb?" Mark wrote:

  • Bob Brinker's Marketimer: Bullish. In his most recent issue, which was published in early June, editor Bob Brinker wrote that his market timing model "remains in favorable territory as we approach the start of the summer season. We continue to expect stock prices to work higher and to achieve new historic highs in the market indexes." Brinker's model portfolios are fully invested.
    .
    [Kirk Comment: Brinker's model portfolios have been fully invested since March 11, 2003. See Bob Brinker's Asset Allocation History. ]
What Mark wrote should be no surprise to anyone who listend to "Moneytalk" last weekend.

For a good summary of what Bob Brinker said on "Moneytalk" last weekend, see: Summary: Bob Brinker's Moneytalk, May 31, 2008. Here are some key excerpts:


  • RECESSION CASSANDRAS.... Brinker said: “What we have right in here now is evidence that the Cassandras, who earlier this year, were telling us we were in recession – right now they’ve basically – well I’ll be kind, basically, they look like fools right now. Because all that they’ve accomplished with their talk about recession…………all that they have to show for their efforts is that they scared the people who listened to them out of the stock market this past winter……….”
    .
    [Kirk Comment: See Bob Brinker and NBER Recession Definitions ]
    .
  • CORRECTION LOW AND TESTS.... Brinker said: “……..And probably a lot of those people got scared out near the correction lows. The initial correction low in January, which was successfully tested in mid-March, before the market reversed and resumed its uptrend. And basically, if you were to total up all of the accomplishments of the Cassandras, that would be it – that they scared people out of the market during a stock market correction in the first quarter………..Because they have been unable to present any evidence of a recession."
    .
  • STOCK MARKET BEARS.... Brinker said: “So what we have here basically, is an example of false prophets and it’s sad. And the reason it’s sad is the damage done. Think of the people that are looking today at the market, S&P at 1400 and they’ve been scared out of the market in the first quarter by these bears………It’s just amazing and yet these people are out there, and these people are not happy, I’m sure, to find themselves out of a rising market since March. To find themselves looking for ever lower prices when in fact we’ve had the opposite.
    .
    So it’s fair for you to say to the Cassandras, where is that recession, where are those millions of lost jobs, where are the two quarters of negative real GDP growth? Where’s the bear market? …………The answer is, they blew it! That is the answer, they blew it. They got caught up in their own negativity and they pronounced that it was all over, it was going to spiral downward and there was no end in sight – and they got it completely backwards.
    .
  • More at Summary: Bob Brinker's Moneytalk, May 31, 2008

Kirk's Commentary: I am not a bear but I hate to break the news to Brinker that the S&P500 with dividends reinvested is still down 5.4% YTD as of 6/3/08. It seems a little early to be bashing the bears who may have been in gold, oil and other commodities all this time. The bears didn't suddenly turn bearish at the very bottom either. Most have been making money in other investments all this time and did not suffer the double digit decline in their portfolios like Brinker did on this recent correction.

  • Brinker P1 on 10/31/07 = $302,561
  • Brinker P1 on 3/31/08 = $252,199
    down $50,362 or down 16.6%
  • Brinker P1 on 5/31/08 = $274,501
    down $28,060 or down 9.3%
  • Gain required from 3/31/08 to "break-even" with 10/31/07 is $50,362. $50,362 / $252,199 x 100% = 20.0 %

More information:

Monday, June 02, 2008

Bob Brinker and NBER Recession Definitions

Last weekend Bob Brinker said there has never been a recession without two quarters of negative GDP growth.
  • In order to have a recessionary report, you would need a negative number followed by another negative number in the next quarter. So you would need two consecutive quarters, using the historic, the traditional, the academic definition of a recession that’s been used of decades."
    From Summary: Bob Brinker's Moneytalk, May 31, 2008
Bob Brinker sometimes makes up his own defintions so what he said in the past can be correct. His definition for a recession seems to be no different.


I decided to check with the National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER or "the horse's mouth," to see what their "official" definition of a recession is.


From About NBER website:


  • "Founded in 1920, the National Bureau of Economic Research is a private, nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to promoting a greater understanding of how the economy works. The NBER is committed to undertaking and disseminating unbiased economic research among public policymakers, business professionals, and the academic community."
    .
    The NBER is the nation's leading nonprofit economic research organization. Sixteen of the 31 American Nobel Prize winners in Economics and six of the past Chairmen of the President's Council of Economic Advisers have been researchers at the NBER. The more than 1,000 professors of economics and business now teaching at universities around the country who are NBER researchers are the leading scholars in their fields.
So NBER clearly is THE organization that DEFINES recessions for the academic community.


Recession Comments From NBER:
  • Defintion: A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades.
    From The NBER’s Recession Dating Procedure
    .

  • "Although a recession is usually accompanied by a decline in GDP, the popular press definition of "two quarters of declining GDP" is not the official standard."
    From "Looking for Signs of Recession?" By Martin and Kathleen Feldstein
    .

  • "Q: The financial press often states the definition of a recession as two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. How does that relate to the NBER's recession dating procedure?
    .
    A: Most of the recessions identified by our procedures do consist of two or more quarters of declining real GDP, but not all of them. According to current data for 2001, the present recession falls into the general pattern, with three consecutive quarters of decline. Our procedure differs from the two-quarter rule in a number of ways. First, we consider the depth as well as the duration of the decline in economic activity. Recall that our definition includes the phrase, "a significant decline in economic activity." Second, we use a broader array of indicators than just real GDP. One reason for this is that the GDP data are subject to considerable revision. Third, we use monthly indicators to arrive at a monthly chronology.
    "
    From The NBER’s Recession Dating Procedure Q&A Section

Conclusion: Bob Brinker continues to have a VERY entertaining radio show that gives us good ideas to think about but you can not take his word for the truth for even the most basic of things like the "academic definition" of a recession.

Sunday, June 01, 2008

Barton Biggs and Bob Brinker Are Bullish

In the Wall Street Journal article "One Bold Analyst's Latest View: Worst Is Over for Economy, Stocks" Barton Biggs sounds much like Bob Brinker. He says many bears like George Soros think we've had a classic "bear market rally" but he believes the worst is over.

Some excerpts from the story with my comments:
  • Barton Biggs: Conventional wisdom is that the market will test its lows, and go lower again. A really serious bear like George Soros thinks we've seen just the first part of the bear market. I'm nervous, but my intuition tells me that after this consolidation is over, the next move will be up, not down.

This agrees with what Brinker says.

  • Barton Biggs: Right now we've had a classic bear-market rally. The market has recovered 50% of the ground it lost since January. A lot of good things are happening in the world. Since 2000, operating earnings for the S&P 500 are up 63% and dividend yields up 86%, while 10-year Treasurys have dropped from 6.2% to 4%.
Brinker has not called the 20.2% decline in the market a bear market, but other Wall Street experts clearly have.
  • Barton Biggs: If the Federal Reserve has made its last rate cut, that's bullish. After that has happened in the past, the market on average was up 5% after three months and 12% after six months. The price to be paid for this -- it saved the U.S. banking system from subprime peccadilloes -- is more inflation. But it won't be catastrophic, 3% to 5% in core inflation.
    .
    Meanwhile, we are close to the bottom in terms of new-home sales and construction. That's a definite plus for the economy.
    .
    Then we have a huge amount of liquidity on the sidelines, waiting to be invested. It has been increased by all the buybacks. Add stock-repurchase money to dividends, and you have a 5.5% yield on invested funds. Incredible.
    .
    U.S. stocks are the cheapest major asset in the world. The top 50 stocks in the S&P 500 are cheap. Will you get rich owning those stocks? No. Will you get richer? Yes.

I agree. Using funds I had from taking profits (Take Profits Alert) last year with the S&P500 at 1540, I bought SPY at $130 for my newsletter explore and personal portfolios. I think SPY is the easiest way to get diverse exposure to the large cap US stocks.

[Above Chart updated 6/14/08 to fix a typo.]

  • Barton Biggs: As oil stops going up, technology stocks will go up. Companies have been underspending on tech for the last few years, and that will change. Tech providers will see earnings grow, and so they will outperform the market.

I believe this and have been investing accordingly. My explore portfolio usually has its best gains after major market bottoms. In 1999 it did 117% plus some 58% gains in 1998 from the correction bottom. In 2003, after the October 2002 bear market bottom, my explore portfolio gained 77%.

  • Barton Biggs: Emerging markets, particularly the Asian ones, are now 31% of world gross domestic product. They're only going to keep going up.

That agrees with what Jim Rogers says.

  • Barton Biggs: Financial services, though, is a busted sector. More write-offs will come. Banks and financial companies had a long bull market from 2003 through 2007. The magic age is over. It will be years until their earnings are back.

Many othres say the same thing. My gut tells me these financial companies may be part of the bubble in oil and will get short before it collapses to give a boost to their earnings much quicker than anyone thinks.

  • WSJ: Predicting the market can be perilous, right?
    .
    Mr. Biggs: One problem is you can be right but too early. I made my prediction on the tech collapse at the end of 1999, but the peak actually was three or four months later. There was a lot of money to be made in that period. People castigated me, told me I was too old, had hardening of the arteries, had gone senile. This can be hard to take.

Just like Bob Brinker, Barton Biggs was a little early to exit the market before it peaked but they BOTH made great calls before the markets collapsed. Unlike Brinker, I doubt Barton Biggs recommended QQQQ (see Bob Brinker's QQQ Advice) with 20 to 50% of the money taken out of the market in late 2000 just before the tech sector crashed.

    ....there are confident ones; they move from ninety-ten in stocks-bonds to five-ninety-five in stocks-bonds. That implies a degree of self-confidence bordering on hubris and self-deception. Over the decades, when both groups...have equal limited (!) ability to "time," the cautious chaps who alternate between sixty-five-thirty-five in stocks-bonds and sixty-forty are likely to end up with a superior risk-corrected total return score.
    [Paul Samuelson, "Journal of Portfolio Management," Fall 1994]

Lets hope they are both right that the worst is over.

To find out how I've profited greatly from these difficult market conditions, subscribe to "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Newsletter" today!

  • Since 1/1/1999 through 6/1/08 my "explore" portfolio is up 199% while the S&P500 is only up 31% and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is only up 91%
    .
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