Bob Brinker's Market Outlook & Latest Investment Advice

Bob Brinker has a weekly radio show "Moneytalk with Bob Brinker" and writes or contributes to two investment letters, "Marketimer" and "The Fixed Income Advisor."  His Son, Bob Brinker Jr., owns the fixed income newsletter and Brinker Sr. is listed as a contributor.  Bob Brinker Sr. started "Marketimer" in the 1980s when Bob. Jr. was just a lad.

Kirk's Stock Market & Sentiment Charts for Feb. 9, 2018

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Bob Brinker, in his February 2018 "Marketimer" newsletter, remains fully invested with his model portfolios one and two 100% in stocks.  He has not taken any profits or raised any cash in his Model Portfolio One or Two, that are 100% in stocks, for any potential corrections or bear markets.  Due to rising interest rates, in his Model Portfolio Three and "Income Portfolio," Bob said he will sell one of the three bond funds on Feb. 12 and put the funds in a money market fund.  Interest rates are already up significantly this year so that fund will probably show a loss for the year.

Bob believes any declines will be contained by either a "minor correction category of 5% to 10%, or the major correction category of 10% to 20%."

Special update for 2/8/18:  We are there now!

Bob's Advice for New Money:  Bob continues to say "we recommend a dollar-cost-average approach for new money, especially during periods of market weakness."  

Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter

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Recently a reader send me this question about investing a "large sum of money."

I’m listening to Brinker right now. He just had a woman call in telling him she had a large sum of money and gave Bob a variety of ways to invest it in the market asked Bob which was the best way to go. Bob segwayed into asset allocation....and never did say which was the best way to invest a large sum of money in the market. 

Do you have a recommendation on the best way to invest a large sum of money in the market?

Here is my reply

If you don't mind, I'll use your EXCELLENT question for a short blog post and share my reply.  

Statistics show lump sum is best as many (perhaps thousands) listen to Brinker and think they should DCA on "weakness" which he usually doesn't define. Many may never get in until a market top just as they give up waiting for weakness in what is called "FOMO" or Fear Of Missing Out.

IF you have the discipline to do monthly DCA into the funds I recommend in my newsletter,  you can have Vanguard set it up for you automatically since all my funds are at Vanguard with ETF equivalents you can buy anywhere, then do the DCA following the plan listed on pg 35 or my January 2018 newsletter near the bottom. 

As for asset allocation, I like being aggressive with money I made and saved while working but for inherited money, I like to keep the memory of who gave it to you alive so I recommend that go into my "Core Conservative" portfolio. 

Brinker is far too careful to make sure he doesn't give any advice that someone can say was "wrong" with market timing and cares less about helping people.   Think of all the years he's said to " DCA on "weakness" and the market pretty much went straight up!  You can see from my advice on pg 34 of my newsletter that I have a SIMPLE PLAN to accelerate DCA payments if the market corrects. 

Kirk's Stock Market & Sentiment Charts for Feb. 9, 2018 

Bob Brinker's Latest Investment Advice

Bob Brinker has a weekly radio show "Moneytalk with Bob Brinker" and writes or contributes to two investment letters, "Marketimer" and "The Fixed Income Advisor."  His Son, Bob Brinker Jr., owns the fixed income newsletter and Brinker Sr. is listed as a contributor.  Bob Brinker Sr. started "Marketimer" in the 1980s when Bob. Jr. was just a lad.

Bob Brinker, in his January 2018 "Marketimer" newsletter, remains fully invested with his model portfolios one and two 100% in stocks.  He has not taken any profits or raised any cash for any potential corrections or bear markets.

 "The Current Marketimer economic outlook for 2018 does not anticipate a recession... the risk of a bear market decline in excess of 20% is low... the most likely risk for the stock market is the development of a mid-term off-presidential election year correction. Whether such a decline is a major correction of 10% to 20%, or a smaller decline of less than 10%, remains to be seen... all Marketimer portfolios remain fully invested." 

Bob's Advice for New Money:  Bob continues to say "we recommend a dollar-cost-average approach for new money, especially during periods of market weakness."  He doesn't define what market weakness is and given we have not had a market decline over 8% since early 2016, you have to wonder why not jump in right away or be more definitive.

See below for my advice for new money:

Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter

 Subscribe NOW and get the January 2018 Issue for FREE!!!

(Your 1 year, 12 issue subscription with SPECIAL ALERT emails will start with November issue.

Recently a reader send me this question about investing a "large sum of money."

I’m listening to Brinker right now. He just had a woman call in telling him she had a large sum of money and gave Bob a variety of ways to invest it in the market asked Bob which was the best way to go. Bob segwayed into asset allocation....and never did say which was the best way to invest a large sum of money in the market. 

Do you have a recommendation on the best way to invest a large sum of money in the market?

Here is my reply

If you don't mind, I'll use your EXCELLENT question for a short blog post and share my reply.  

Statistics show lump sum is best as many (perhaps thousands) listen to Brinker and think they should DCA on "weakness" so they never get in until a market top.   

IF you have the discipline to do monthly DCA into the funds I recommend in my newsletter,  you can have Vanguard set it up for you automatically since all my funds are at Vanguard with ETF equivalents you can buy anywhere, then do the DCA following the plan listed on pg 35 or my September newsletter near the bottom. 

As for asset allocation, I like being aggressive with money I made and saved while working but for inherited money, I like to keep the memory of who gave it to you alive so I recommend that go into my "Core Conservative" portfolio. 

Brinker is far too careful to make sure he doesn't give any advice that someone can say was "wrong" with market timing and cares less about helping people.   Think of all the years he's said to " DCA on "weakness" and the market has pretty much gone straight up!  You can see from my advice on pg 34 of my newsletter that I have a SIMPLE PLAN to accelerate DCA payments if the market corrects.  It is one reason I lost respect for Brinker.

Bob Brinker's Market Outlook and Advice for New Money

Bob Brinker Market Update for August 2017.  In this issue I discuss:

1. Bob Brinker's August 2017 Market Outlook.
2. Marketimer Allocations
3. Advice for new money.
4. Series I-Bonds
5. Timer Digest Update
6. Link to Listen Live on internet radio
7. Newsletter Special Offer - August Issue for Free!

#1 Bob Brinker's August 2017 Market Outlook.  In his August 2017 Marketimer newsletter, Brinker remains bullish on the US stock market.  In the first two pages, he covers his "primary" causes for a bear market.  I guess he changed the name from "five root causes of a bear market" after they completely missed the last bear market where the S&P 500 fell over 50% while Brinker issued "buy alerts" all the way down to the 800s then stopped before the actual bottom in the 600s. Why would he change the name?  Easy, "Google Search."  As such, I take his timing with a grain of salt.  With that said, Brinker:

• says you can get a PE of 17 to 18 times earnings 
• projects the S&P 500 earnings will be $140 in 2018
• thus the market has a "potential" for mid-2500s "going forward."
  [18 x $140 = $2,520]
• At the time of publication, the S&P500 was $2470.30 so $2534 (the lower end of mid $2500s or $2534 to $2567) is only a gain of 2.6%.  Thus, he's not going out on a very big limb with that projection.

#2 Bob Brinker's Marketimer Allocations:   

• Model Portfolio's one and two are 100% in stock funds 
• Model Portfolio three is listed as 50% in stocks but I calculate he has 56% in stocks which means he's more bullish than "balanced."

#3 Bob Brinker's Advice for New Money:   

• Bob continues to recommend a "dollar-cost-average approach, especially during periods of market weakness" but gives no guidance on what he considers weakness or why not just do a typical dollar-cost-average no matter what the market does.  This waiting for "weakness" has kept a good number of individual investors on the sidelines missing this great opportunity to make a lot of money!

#4 Series I-Bonds

• Bob didn't mention Series-I US Savings bonds in the latest Marketimer but he has talked about them in the past on his radio show, Moneytalk. 
• I have iBonds in my "Explore Portfolio" of "Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter."  I think iBonds are a good, conservative investment that will keep pace with inflation and defer taxes thus they are great for taxable savings when you are in a high bracket.
• Read more at:  Current Series I Bond Rates  and  Historical Series I Bond Rates

#5 Timer Digest Update

• Here is an update from the August 9, 2017 Timer Digest Hotline.  (Bob Brinker isn't mentioned but I am in the top 10.)

• Last week I added to GE (charts) at $25 and change.  I last took profits in GE last year at $32.50.  It may go lower, but I like the juicy yield here and I have more buy targets in my newsletter to get more shares as I "dollar cost average" back into stocks after I take profits at higher levels.  Send for a free sample issue if you wish to learn more how I do this.
  
• Here is an update from the August 7, 2017 Timer Digest Newsletter.  Bob Brinker isn't mentioned but I am in the top 10 for 1-year and I am tied for first place in "Long-Term" timing.

• Get a Free Issue of Timer Digest here

#6 Click to Listen Live at KFNN from 1-4PM PST, 4-7PM EST

#7 Newsletter Special Offer 

• Subscribe NOW and get my August 2017 Issue for Free!
• Your 1 year, 12 issue subscription will start with next month's issue.
• Get email alerts when I buy or sell securities for my explore portfolio. My "Auto Buy" and "Auto Sell" levels are set ahead of time for target buy and sell levels for my securities.  This allows you to place "limit orders" with your broker in advance so you can go about your business.
• Unlike "others," I will answer All questions about what I write by Email.  If what I write is not clear to you, just ask! 

Bob Brinker's Market Outlook, Advice for New Money & More

Bob Brinker Market Update for May 2017.  In this issue I discuss:

• Bob Brinker's May 2017 Market Outlook.
• Marketimer Allocations
• Is Brinker more or less bullish than in past years at this time?
• Series I-Bonds
• Advice for new money.
• GNMAs
• Timer Digest Update
• Link to Listen Live (1-4PM PST, 4-7PM EST)

Bob Brinker's May 2017 Market Outlook.  In his May 2017 Marketimer newsletter, 

• As of May 3, 2017 with the S&P500 at $2,384.20, Bob Brinker is bullish and fully invested.
• He expects the S&P500 to earn $130 in 2017 and says it can support a P/E ratio of 17 to 18 times that.
• Bob says the market can "trade well into the S&P 500 Index 2400s range going forward."
  
• We're nearly there already given the market has traded into the 2400s already this month!
• Bob also says "tax reform legislation" going forward could lead to "a healthy increase in operating earnings in 2018."  This is pretty much what every talking head on CNBC from both political parties says would happen if companies get to keep more of the money they earn.

Marketimer Allocations:

• Model Portfolio's one and two are 100% in stock funds with 80% in the US and 20% as the listed percentage in an "All-World" index fund.  

• The actual percentages in his portfolios vary from what is listed since he doesn't rebalance or update the percentages often.   

• It seems odd he offers zero guidance for using the percentage he recommends or the actual percentage in the portfolios he shows and reports measured performance for.  For example, he recommends 30% in VTSMX for P3, but the actual percentage is 33.5%, over 10% more than he recommends!

• Model Portfolio three is listed as 50% in stocks but since he doesn't rebalance often, he has quite a bit more in stocks than fixed income.  Of the stocks, he has about 20% of that in the same "All-World" index fund.  (so 10% "All-World" and 40% US)
• His "Active/Passive Portfolio" is 100% in stocks with the same 80:20 balance between US and foreign
• His "Income Portfolio" is 100% out of stocks with money spread between three managed funds with duration between 1.25 to 1.52 years and yield between 1.95% and 4.62%

May 13, 2017 Market Update - Summary

• The four major US markets I follow are up between 1.9% and 13.7% YTD.
• The S&P500 and Nasdaq markets set new record closing highs this week.
• The 2400 level continues to be strong resistance for the S&P500 while open gaps are cause for concern.
• The New Rates for New and Old I-Bonds are out.
• My Explore Portfolio continues to do well in 2017 after a great 2016.  It finished the week at a new record high!
• Full Article: Markets Near Record Highs, Open Gaps & 2400 Resistance Level

I plan to add to and finish this article over the next few days so come back and look for more.

Kirk Lindstrom's Investment Letter:

Subscribe NOW & get the May 2017 Issue for FREE!!!

Make sure you read:

• May 26: Market Update - New Record Closing Highs